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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--11/21/2019
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Craig Edwards
2:02
Let's get things rolling.
2:03
Have a lot of Astros questions in the queue that I will get to, but will first mention my piece on the subject. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-the-astros-might-deserve/
Thanks
2:03
...for your Astros piece yesterday. I was worried FG was going to take a very dry "only what can be measured  and quantified matters" approach. Now, what do you think WILL happen to the Astros (and who/when)?
Sam
2:05
If the Astros are found to have cheated in the 2017 WS, what is the proper punishment?
Craig Edwards
2:05
I think the effect is interesting and worth exploring. It's also very difficult to do given how little information we have. Ultimately, it's not important because the cheating is the thing that's important. Not, how much it helped them. As for a punishment, I think seven-figure fine, multiple high draft picks and suspensions for members of the F.O. and coaching staff. Not sure there will be a banning, but it will be really interesting to see how far Manfred goes in forcing the Astros to clean house.
2:07
As for the 2017 World Series, I don't think there's anything extra you can really do. Not having a 2017 WS champion would be really bizarre and giving it to the Dodgers would be really weird. Are they going to have a ring ceremony in 2020 for the 2017 championship? Will the Kershaw narrative end? Will Dave Roberts be deemed a better postseason manager. MLB needs to look mostly forward and not back.
Seamus Catuli
2:08
Is there some reason the Cubs can't get a decent FA 2b? I mean didn't Moustakas grade out as average as 2b defensively? I don't hear about the Cubs going after anyone
Craig Edwards
2:09
Moustakas is 31 years old and only have 300 -some innings at second base. He was probably really helped by the Brewers aggressive shifting. I don't think he's a second baseman. And if Moustakas isn't a second baseman, there's not a lot out there. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=2b
2:10
Also, didn't you hear? The Cubs are broke. Even if the Cubs were to spend, I think it would be better used on a starting pitcher and just see of Hoerner can stick in the majors.
Colin
2:11
Ground ball rate has fluctuated a bit over the past ten years, but has mostly remained about the same.  Is this odd in light of the new emphasis on launch angle?  What might be an explanation?
Craig Edwards
2:11
Even when players try to hit the ball in the air, they still hit a lot of grounders. That's why the shift works. They roll over on tough pitches they are trying to hit in the air and end up as grounders.
Price
2:12
Who plays first base for the Nats next year?
Craig Edwards
2:15
Good question. Depends on how they fill out the rest of the roster. Wouldn't be a big surprise to see a cheaper platoon out there with Smoak and Thames available from the left side. Guessing it is lower on their list of priorities at the moment.
The Cape Cod Kid
2:15
Talk to me about Grandal and the offensive and defensive impact he’ll have on the White Sox next year.
Craig Edwards
2:16
His defense is all about stealing strikes. I think that will be helpful to a younger rotation. Offensively, he's been one of the better hitting catchers in the game the last few years. Getting that production from the catcher spot can really lengthen a lineup.
2:18
That said, the White Sox can't stop there. They still need at least one starting pitcher and one good outfielder. McCann as DH isn't what you want, either. Grandal is a really solid first step, or second, if you consider Abreu. They just have a few more to go.
Powell
2:18
With Grandal off the market, Didi Gregorious seems to be the remaining prime target for the Reds.  But if Cincy fails to land Didi, where should they look to upgrade?
Craig Edwards
2:20
Gregorious does seem like a really good fit for Cincinnati right now. Not sure what the market for him will be, but I don't think it should get out of control enough that the Reds couldn't have the highest offer. If they don't get him, there really aren't a ton of great fits out there in free agency. A Lindor trade would be wild and unlikely, but if they like their young outfielders, there's not a lot of other areas to upgrade.
Hot Take
2:21
Joey Gallo seemed to make real strides in his plate discipline last season before his injury.  Do you think he keeps those?  O/U his Steamer projection of .362 wOBA?
Craig Edwards
2:22
He's still striking out a ton, but obviously offset some by the big increase in walks. I'd be pretty confident in the over on the projection.
Jason
2:23
What value does Profar have on the trade market? Seems like the A's would like to move in a different direction, even taking into account positive BABIP regression, given his unreliable defense.
Craig Edwards
2:24
Not much, probably. He's coming off a below-average season and even his 2018 season wasn't great or anything. If they want him gone, I'm sure they can make that happen, but he's not going to bring much back.
Powell
2:25
With Grandal in the fold, the White Sox project as the ninth best team in the AL, per Fangraphs' depth charts.  What more do they need to do to have a legitimate playoff shot?
Craig Edwards
2:26
If they add six more wins, three in the rotation, three in the outfield, they probably project to 85 wins and that's enough to think you have a legitimate shot at contention.
Hot Take
2:27
Willie Calhoun had a 37-HR pace over 600 PA last year.  Plate discipline and Hard% trends look good.  Think his 110 wRC+ of 2019 is about his true talent right now?  Also, think they'll give him every-day ABs all season?
Craig Edwards
2:28
They probably need to think he's better than that to give him everyday ABs because Choo is at DH so he needs to be a good hitter to make up for his defense.
ebo
2:29
is the cleveland outfield as faulty as it looks, or will the bauers and franmil additions help cement a better outlook?
Craig Edwards
2:30
It's as faulty as it looks and even Mercado isn't a sure thing. Reyes is probably the DH. They need to get better in the outfield to avoid falling behind like they did last season where a strong finish couldn't save them.
Dick Williams
2:30
What am I getting with De Leon?
Craig Edwards
2:31
Who knows? He's obviously still missing bats, but he can't walk as many players as he has to think he can compete for a rotation slot. Could be a really good reliever, though.
Guest
2:31
White Sox desperately need another OF, any FA targets you like for them?
Craig Edwards
2:32
I think Ozuna would be a really good fit, though Castellanos and Puig would be fine if Ozuna goes elsewhere.
Ted
2:32
Grandal, Smith, Martin - Are they overpays?  Or are we going to see much bigger contracts on average than expected by conventional wisdom?
Craig Edwards
2:34
Relievers are fairly scarce and almost always seem like overpays anyway. Grandal was the only good catcher out there with no real comparable trade target to wait on. After last winter, Grandal might have just forced teams to be aggressive and got a good offer. I don't think that means much for the rest of the free agents, yet. Still too early to say.
Zack Collins
2:34
Do you think the White Sox trade a catcher or keep depth at this position now that Yasmani Grandal has joined the team?  Asking for a friend...
Craig Edwards
2:36
There are obviously differing opinions on the ability of Collins and McCann as catchers. McCann seems like a fine backup and not sure a team would trade for him as a starter. Collins is probably more of  DH anyway, assuming he can keep his strikeout rate below 30%. If not, he's not really a guy who can help a team trying to contend.
Jason
2:36
Piscotty for JBJ straight up, who says no?
Craig Edwards
2:37
The A's
Ben
2:37
What chances do you give the Red Sox pitching staff to be above average next year? The top four in their starting staff all have had above average to amazing performances in past seasons, and it seems like injuries were a big cause for their decline last year.
Craig Edwards
2:38
Above average? I'd say the chances are pretty good. There's a pretty big dropoff after those top four, though so any injury would really hurt them if they don't get some reinforcements.
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