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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--11/5/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:04
Welcome everyone to my first chat of the offseason. Going to let the queue fill up a bit more, but be sure to take a look at some of the offseason resources we've got here at FanGraphs.
2:05
First, our Top 50 Free Agents, which includes write-ups on all 50 free agents, contract predictions from me and crowdsourced predictions as well as projections for 2021. It also includes a state of the free agent market from me. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/
I also went on FanGraphs Audio and talked about creating the list. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/category/podcast/
2:06
And our roster resource page has a free agent tracker. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker
and an offseason tracker, generally. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/offseason-tracker/padres
2:07
And one very useful resource for me is the payroll information: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/mets
PhilDiggety
2:08
If this winter is as dire for free agents as everyone believes it will be, how long will Scott Boras have his clients hold out for better contracts? February? March? August?
Craig Edwards
2:11
It isn't likely to be a big winter for Boras. He doesn't have any of the top-three free agents and those are the only players likely to get anywhere near $100 million. I think the guys at the top won't have that much trouble getting decent contracts. After that, teams are going to wait out the non-tender deadline next month and see if they can get guys for basically free if teams are looking to move players with deals they want to get rid of without getting talent back. It's just not going to be a great winter for free agents outside of the elite guys.
Guest
2:11
So the Dodgers will trade for Lindor, slide Seager to 3B to replace Turner, and they will be even scarier. Why do I keep envisioning this?
Craig Edwards
2:14
They've been rumored on Lindor for a while and they have the capacity to easily absorb his salary and though they don't have the prospect depth they had a year ago, they are still in decent position to make a trade.
Scotty
2:15
Going forward who would you rather have, Alec Bohm or Randy Arozarena
Craig Edwards
2:16
I lean toward Bohm, but if he can't stay at third base, I think Arozarena would jump him.
RJ
2:16
Moreno seems awfully budget conscious. Cohen reportedly wants to make a splash. Mets could use a center fielder. Give a poor sinner some hope, Craig.
Craig Edwards
2:17
you're crazy for that one.
Guest
2:17
Lindor for Dom, Rosario, Andres Giminez.  Thoughts?
Craig Edwards
2:17
I don't see it.
GSon
2:17
Just like the Dodgers purchase, the Mets new owner, Steve Cohen is taking the place of a poorly held owner and may be looking to make a similar "splash" as the the Mookie Betts deal.. Would a Mets deal for Javier Baez (assumes the Mets will negotiate an extension at some future date) with Yu Darvish as the David Price component be the kind of deal that makes that splash?.. Other than one of Mauricio/Rosario, which other prospects return to the Cubs?
Craig Edwards
2:19
That doesn't really work. Yu Darvish is really good and a Cy Young finalist, not a David Price comp, really. Darvish has 3/59 left and that's not an underwater deal like Price's was.
2:20
Related to many questions, I just wrote up my view on the Mets' offseason. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-pieces-of-advice-for-steve-cohen-and-...
In short, they shouldn't be giving up players in trades. They really don't need to do that now, if Cohen wants to spend. Use the money, not players to get better players.
Benny Baseball
2:21
Do the Red Sox trade me this offseason?
Craig Edwards
2:23
I really don't see how they can trade Benintendi right now. He was average in 2019 and hurt and ineffective this year. Unless the team has completely given up on Benintendi, there's no reason to trade him because there's no value to get back.
Guest
2:24
What does Adam Eaton settle for in free agency?
Craig Edwards
2:26
maybe $3 million to $5 million for one year. He'll be 32 in December, his defense is on the decline and even in 2019, he was only an average player. Even if you ignore 2020 completely, he probably isn't a player you just want to hand a job if you are trying to compete this season.
Guest
2:26
Will the Cardinals even pony up the money to re-sign Yadi & Waino, or are they gonna cry poverty to the point the long-time duo will be forced to leave?
Craig Edwards
2:28
I imagine both will be back with the Cardinals when all is said and done. They are both still solid players, even at their ages, and they are probably willing to take less to stay in St. Louis. I know the Cardinals want to cut payroll, but not bringing back those two makes little sense.
Gibby
2:28
Does the Tigers move for AJ Hinch signal they think they can win sooner than later and will make some bigger free agent signings this year OR likely still sit out for another year?
Craig Edwards
2:29
I don't see them as major players this winter. They likely want to see their young pitching all take a step forward before they really start to invest in free agency.
A cat
2:29
Is Bloom experiencing the same pushback from upper management that previous baseball ops people did and ultimately drove them out? Bloom likes Fuld, Cora is the org choice.
Craig Edwards
2:30
It's kind of a curious final two. The former manager who was suspended and the player with closer ties to Bloom. It would seem to be an owner versus GM situation, but that isn't necessarily the case.
GSon
2:30
More blatantly obvious: the sun setting in the west or the Indians announcing they will be looking to trade Francisco Lindor this offseason?
Craig Edwards
2:32
As we saw with Betts last offseason, the trade value for just one season of a player isn't as high as the name value might suggest. And Betts is a little better than Lindor.
(Name withheld)
2:32
How can I honestly be expected to get any work done right now, what with it being Hot Stove Season and other stuff happening, too?
Craig Edwards
2:33
I'm working right now. But yes, it can be very difficult to focus. Just do the best you can. Try to breathe and change your activities so you don't end up online or watching tv all the time.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:34
Hi Craig! Two article ideas before we all forget about the postseason. First, how Randy's postseason heroics stack up all time, recognizing this year's expanded playoffs (I know Jay had a piece from the ALCS). Second, it was reported that had there been a game seven in the World Series, it may have been delayed because of Turner's positive test. That would mean unprecedented pitcher availability in a winner-take-all World Series game, and I'm wondering how teams might have approached that with their pitcher usage.
Craig Edwards
2:35
Thanks for the ideas. Here's Jay's piece that you mentioned. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/randy-arozarenas-remarkable-run-continues/
Tony Wolfe took a different angle after the World Series. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/randy-arozarena-couldnt-do-it-by-himself/
2:37
As for added rest, Dodgers would have looked at Buehler, Kershaw, Urias to complete the game while the Rays might have had Snell added to the mix for a few innings depending on the delay.
thebearproofsuit
2:39
A lot places don't seem to have Seattle as a very active player in the market. Any reason they wouldn't be in on Kim, Stroman etc? seems like perfect fits and they have $$$
Craig Edwards
2:42
They might not want to invest in a season where they still feel like they are a year away in terms of competing and getting their two best prospects adjusted to the bigs. That's the White Sox 2019 approach before they jumped in free agency in 2020. The more aggressive comp here is what Toronto did last season in adding Ryu and they competed in the short season. So, I think if the Mariners see some opportunities for some multi-year guys who will still be good in 2022 when they might be more ready to compete, they could go after them.
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