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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--12/10/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:01
Let's get rolling.
Doug
2:02
Do you think it makes sense for the Cubs to trade Darvish?
Craig Edwards
2:04
Not really. I think even if the team was looking to rebuild, that would mean moving on from everyone next year and while Darvish might net some return, it isn't really a difference-maker. You are better off trying to compete in a weak NL Central for one more year and see where everything stands. The Cubs talked last year about shaking things up and they pretty much stood pat so the sustainable winner thing isn't really going to be possible beyond this season unless they spend through it.
Guest
2:04
How many combined playoff appearances from the Nats and the Phillies the next 5 years? Are the Mets and Braves going to rule for a while?
Craig Edwards
2:05
Depends on how many playoff teams there are. The Nationals have one of the best players in the game and they should have plenty of money in the next few years. The Phillies are harder to gauge but they do have a decent amount of talent there. The Braves and Mets aren't necessarily going to dominate given the Braves aren't ever likely to spend big and the Mets are starting a bit from behind in terms of young talent.
ExtVlo
2:06
Do you think the pirates package bell and taillon or trade them separately?
Craig Edwards
2:07
I think they'll probably do whatever gives them the best return overall. Generally, that's going to be separately, but if there is a motivated team, a package might net slightly more. That said, these guys don't have a ton of trade value right now based on recent/no performance.
J
2:08
Does the reduction of minor league teams per organization and minor league roster cap per organization affect your prospect valuation at all?
Craig Edwards
2:10
I would doubt it. Most of the value in farm systems comes from players not likely to be affected. It hurts the teams best at identifying under the radar talent and developing players on the fringes. It usually takes a bunch of those types of players to get even one or two successes, but they tend to pay off pretty well.
BK
2:11
Is Springer/Kim/Paxton (+ pen filler) a pretty perfect offseason for the Jays? Would this move them past TB, assuming the Rays have a quiet winter?
Craig Edwards
2:12
That would be very good for the Jays. It would put them pretty close to the Yankees, I would imagine.
Friar Fanatic
2:13
What moves will firmly take the Padres into World Series contention?
Craig Edwards
2:14
They are arguably already there. Getting another starting pitcher might help.
Molly
2:14
What’s your hot take on the Rule 5 draft?
Craig Edwards
2:15
I'm happy for the players to get better opportunities. Looked like a bunch of post-injury pitchers. Not sure there's going to be much impact there for next season.
Grant
2:15
Obviously the Angels need an impact starter. Beyond this, what's more important - a second impact starter, or a revamped bullpen?
Craig Edwards
2:16
I would always choose starting pitching.
It also takes a potential starter and should make the bullpen better. I do like Hendricks among the RP free agents this year and if he's reasonably priced instead of making elite money, he might be worth it.
Verdugo Fan Club
2:18
What do you think the best move for the Red Sox this off season?
Craig Edwards
2:20
Grab one of the cheap, slugging outfielders that just hit the market and add a few starting pitchers that have upside like Quintana, Archer, Rodon, Paxton and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle. Maybe bring Lester back.
Jon
2:21
Mookie Betts article clarification: Did the Red Sox save $60M in payroll and $20M in luxury tax?
Craig Edwards
2:23
Last year? They saved $10 million in Betts' salary. They sort of saved $6 million on Price. They saved nothing in competitive balance tax because nobody had to pay, regardless if they went over, if I remember correctly.
Every ML GM
2:24
*Sees Dombrowski news in Phillie* Time to start looking through the Philadelphia farm system, because they are all about to get traded!
Craig Edwards
2:26
We'll see what happens there. I'm not sure what Dombrowski did in Boston is going to happen in Philadelphia. The Tigers aren't the right analogue, either given where Detroit was when he took over. Philadelphia isn't exactly teeming with prospects with Bohm's graduation and Howard is already in the majors as well.
2:27
While he might not necessarily be the person you would want as a GM, it should signal to Phillies fans that there is no interest in a teardown, which should be a good thing.
bosoxforlife
2:27
Do you believe that Betts was never going to resign with the Red Sox even if they offered more than Trout got?
Craig Edwards
2:28
Players generally sign with the teams that offer the most money, so I'm not sure Betts would have left if they made that sort of offer.
Isolated Thinker
2:28
I know MLB/owners are on the same "team", but don't NL owners especially want a decision on the universal DH for 2021 asap? NL decision makers are at a clear disadvantage right now.  This lack of clarity potentially interferes with NL teams fielding their best possible offense, which is unprecedented, and simply not fair.  NL owners should demand it.
Craig Edwards
2:28
Except NL teams aren't competing against AL teams to get to the playoffs. Competitively, it doesn't make that much of a difference, and it offers a convenient excuse to wait.
RJ
2:29
Expansion soon? Owners probably wouldn’t mind a couple billion in franchise fees after the “losses” of 2020.
Craig Edwards
2:30
I would think so. I wrote about it what seems like years ago (turns out it was March. Is it still March?) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/will-mlb-turn-to-expansion-after-losing-re...
Jon
2:30
But what would the Red Sox have had to pay if both players were kept?
Craig Edwards
2:31
In salary this past season, Price and Betts combined to make, if Price hadn't opted out, about $22 million, though they would have paid at least half of Price's deal regardless of if they traded him.
Jon
2:31
And I'm referring to what they would have saved if 2020 was a normal, full season
Craig Edwards
2:34
I see. So right, around $60 million in salary and $25 million in taxes.
Matt
2:35
Initial thoughts on Nate Lowe being traded to the Rangers?
Craig Edwards
2:37
Initial reaction is a decent trade for both teams. Rangers get a young major league contributor in Lowe while the Rays deal from some depth, get a decent prospect and more flexibility with a roster spot.
Jonathan
2:37
What do you know about Heriberto Hernandez?
Craig Edwards
2:38
Eric is going to write up the trade. Here's what he had to say before last season. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-52-prospects-texas-rangers/
Jonathan
2:39
I just now realized that the Rays traded the first basemen Lowe and not the other ones
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