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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--12/10/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:39
They kept the one whose name rhymes with Mr. Plow.
DD
2:39
Remember, Dombrowski built up the Tigers when they were miserable and tore down the Marlins after a world series. He's done more than just top off a good team
Craig Edwards
2:40
right. He's now getting a Phillies team sort of in the middle. It's an interesting challenge, particularly if the team doesn't get back to big-spending ways like it looked like they were headed for.
Jake
2:41
I have a CBT penalty related question. Based on the current CBT, if a team carries a CBT payroll over $250 million, their overages get taxed at 62.5 % and their draft pick moves back 10 spots. CBT is calculated at the end of the season. The CBA ends 12/2021, if a team is that much over the line at the end of 2021 but the draft penalties won’t kick in until 2022 under which there will be a new CBA, will they face same penalties as 2021, new penalties that will be instituted in 2022 or no penalties?
Craig Edwards
2:42
They would probably carry over unless specifically removed in the new CBA. I'm not sure that will matter this year as no team seems likely to hit that mark.
Tigers
2:42
Odds Detroit picks up LeMahieu?
Craig Edwards
2:43
Not high. That would also be a pretty bad move for them. They should be targeting guys with the potential to earn more than what they are being paid, not trying to get what they are paying for, if that makes sense.
Gene
2:44
Lets say the Mets do get Springer. Would the next logical move to be trading Davis/Alonso/Smith for pitching?
Craig Edwards
2:45
Assuming, they already have McCann, I could see a trade for pitching, though they might just be better off signing a free agent starter. They don't have to trade one of thoses guys, even if there isn't a DH. The other potential starters in the corner outfield spots do have some durability issues.
John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt
2:46
Andrew Baggarly writes that the Giants would be better off making moves while everyone else is scared. Could they catapult their way into contention by flexing some financial clout in the market?
Craig Edwards
2:46
I wrote about that possibility last month. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/are-the-giants-ready-to-contend/
2:47
I don't think they need to get into the deep end of free agency, but getting some good deals on some multi-year guys who should still be good in 2022 would help them take an intermediate step forward before making a splash in the huge free agent class next winter.
Nate
2:48
While obviously a ways out, you have to admire that the Royals are adding free agents, instead of tanking, right? It's better for baseball as a whole when teams don't tank.

I dislike the Royals with a passion, but kudos to them.
Craig Edwards
2:49
It's a little weird, and they are going after older guys on two-year contracts though it isn't like they are breaking the bank. It doesn't hurt to be a little bit competitive and be ready just in case the division falls back to them. If there's expanded playoffs, a hot start could make them contenders for much of the season.
Kretin
2:50
Would it make more sense for the Angels to either sign Bauer, or take that money and go after 2 of Tanaka/Odorizzi type pitchers?
Craig Edwards
2:52
I think Bauer plus one of the lower-tier starters would make more sense than two of the mid-tier options. Increase the ceiling and the floor rather than just the latter.
bosoxforlife
2:53
What percentage of team revenues come from day of the game operations. Ticket sales, parking, food and other concessions?
Craig Edwards
2:53
Forbes had it at about 40%.
Mike Hawk
2:53
With the minor leagues in flux, what an opportunity to implement a relegation system.  Alas, due to $ it will never happen. Thoughts on such a system being good or bad for MLB?
Craig Edwards
2:54
I think incentives to not be bad are good. I think the stadium situations makes it impossible.
Burnt Reynolds
2:54
Regarding the Dads search for SP: good fit for Tanaka?
Craig Edwards
2:55
That would make sense. Tanaka is the next-best option on the market after Bauer, so he would make sense for just about everybody, though.
ExtVlo
2:55
What would be a reasonable return for Sonny Gray?
Craig Edwards
2:57
I think a back-end top-100 guy and then somebody else in the top 200 or 300 prospects. A 50 and a 45, basically, would seem to make sense. I'd probably just keep him, though.
Tom
2:58
FG shows Brandon Nimmo was the #5 CF in the NL by WAR last year, and #8 overall. How much of an upgrade would Springer represent, especially if he only improves the defense marginally for a year or so and then becomes a corner OF?
Craig Edwards
3:00
Based on projections, Springer is a win up over Nimmo, though Springer isn't really replacing Nimmo because Nimmo moves to a corner. He replaces JD Davis and Davis still gets to have some value as a bench player.
Springer wasn't my preferred target for the Mets. Realmuto was, but it is hard to say Springer wouldn't be a good upgrade. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-pieces-of-advice-for-steve-cohen-and-...
Nate
3:01
What does a return for Arenado look like?
Craig Edwards
3:02
Colorado adds $30 M to $40 M over the life of the deal, gets a couple prospects outside of the top-100.
Johnny5Alive
3:02
Follow-up on Tom - the mets offense has been very good (top 5), but their defense and pitching (outside degrom) have been very bad.  While you always like the idea of adding a Springer, would they be better off going Bauer, Hendricks, McCann and then like JBJ?
Craig Edwards
3:04
I'd rather add depth to the rotation than go after Bauer. Hendricks makes some sense if everything else is already in order. I'd be looking for a right-handed defensively minded center fielder rather than a lefty like Bradley Jr.
bosoxforlife
3:04
If the Mets sign George Springer he will transform into the second coming of Jason Bay.
Craig Edwards
3:06
that's not really a good comp given Bay's poor defense in a corner and the two seasons before his good one with the Red Sox.
James
3:06
Dodgers seem to be unusually quiet,
Craig Edwards
3:07
They were pretty quiet last year until they traded for one of the best players in baseball in early February. They don't have to do much so they can be patient as long as someone they want isn't in danger of going someplace else.
JKC
3:08
Heyman says 6 players involved in Lowe trade
Craig Edwards
3:08
Guest
3:09
Do the cards make big moves? They have the money and farm for a trade
Craig Edwards
3:11
I doubt it. In the end, they probably just bring back Yadi and Wainwright and sign some outfielder. They've made huge cuts to payroll so far and have a bunch more coming off the books at the end of the season. They need some internal options to take a step forward and maybe go big next winter. They should be able to make some good moves this offseason, but there haven't been any signals that they will. For a look at everyone's payrolls at the moment and how they compare to last season, here's this. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-current-state-of-2021-team-payrolls/
3:12
That's going to do it for me today. Thanks for all the questions.
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