You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--12/17/2020
powered byJotCast
Craig Edwards
2:02
Before we get going, quick plug for a piece that went up yesterday on improving the way baseball is played. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/two-easy-ways-to-make-baseball-a-better-ga...
Rob
2:03
If you're the angels, despite needing pitching, would you rather give a long term deal to Realmuto instead of Bauer if short term deals are off the table?
Craig Edwards
2:06
In a vacuum, ff the money were the same, I'd take Realmuto. That said, the Angels have a significantly greater need in the rotation than at catcher, though. I would prioritize Bauer as well as a low-end, one-year starter, but would sub Realmuto and two mid-to-low starters in Bauer's place.
purplemini
2:06
If you were employed by the Texas Rangers, would you try to make Jonathan Hernandez a starter or would you keep him in relief? What's your prediction for what actually happens to Hernandez next year?
Craig Edwards
2:08
I would at least stretch him out in spring training. He's got a slider and a change so there's something there for a blueprint to start. Given Texas' outlook for this year, if it looks like he can go multiple innings in spring, it doesn't hurt to see what he can do during the season, either as a starter or multi-inning reliever.
CIto's Mustache
2:08
How much tech did teams install at their alternate training sites this past summer? Ben Nicholson-Smith mentioned how Alek Manoah used Trackman and Rapsodo data at the Blue Jays' alt. site in Rochester and I wonder if that was the norm across MLB.
Craig Edwards
2:09
A lot did. I can't remember the number, but there was a plan in place to share data so that teams could make trades at the deadline.
Bart
2:09
With the very late recognition of the Negro League by the MLB, what will this change have on the  recognition of their contributions and especially the less known stars.
Craig Edwards
2:13
I think it is helpful to have their statistics in more prominent places. It's more important to keep the Negro League Baseball Museum, to regularly honor players who played. Recognition and appreciation needs to be ongoing for it to matter. It's also very important to continue to make sure baseball is accessible to everyone to make new fans. The casual or potential fan isn't likely to go looking for anybody's stats all that often, let alone ones from 75 years ago. MLB and teams need to be active.
MoKo
2:13
thanks for the excellent piece about making the game better, hope it becomes a reality; in the meantime, the blue Jays have been linked to almost everyone available, but which are the moves that really makes sense for them other than pitching? A stopgap ss until class of 22 or a good hitting of?
Craig Edwards
2:16
Thanks. I think Springer makes a ton of sense. Maybe Semien, too, of the relatively bigger names. I think Justin Turner would be a pretty good fit and would allow the team to not make a decision on Vlad's position now.
Maggie25
2:16
Do you think the ever-increasing reliance on analytics by teams is at least partially responsible for some of baseball's excitement problem (if you think there's a problem). I'm a paying member of fangraphs, I love stats, but I wonder if always doing what the analytics dictates results in a less interesting game.
Put a different (oversimplified) way, it's fun to cheer for superstars and mythology, it's less fun to cheer for adding just enough win value to get your team full of boring players into the playoffs.
Craig Edwards
2:19
I think a lot of the success of analytics is recognizing what players are already doing well on their own and emphasizing that with others. Hitting the ball in the air isn't new or analytics driven. The high fastball and the low curve is the same way. Analytics has helped make sense of why and how some of those things work to make players better. I think too much of the blame about the way the game is played is heaped on analytics when most of the things people don't like is just the pitching being at an incredibly high level.
2:20
and I think people generally cheer for winners whether they have stars or not. Good teams tend to have stars but most teams have fan favorites or heroes who played at less than a star level.
Ed
2:20
Sorry, posted early. Would you rather have player A, who slashes .240/.250/.450 and sees an average of 3 pitchers per AB. Or player B who slashes .050/.200/.100, but see an average of 8.5 pitches per AB? A is self explanatory but B is someone you could lead B off vs deGrom for instance and bank on 25+ pitches being used up, but also likely 3 outs.
Craig Edwards
2:22
A, for sure. Extra pitches simply aren't worth that much, and there aren't that many pitchers where you absolutely want them out of the game. A still isn't a starter, but B doesn't have a place on the team.
SomeGuy
2:22
Let's say the Rockies want to deal Arenado to the Mets. How much money would they have to send with him assuming Mets send nothing back (obviously wouldn't happen that way but for arguments sake)?
Craig Edwards
2:28
Arenado is owed $199 million over the next six years with an opt-out after next season. That's through his age-35 season. If he were a free agent, coming off the season he just had, he's probably getting $150 million, and probably $125 million with an opt-out after the first year. I think you would need to tack on an option year for about $20 million to get the opt-out waived, and then you are probably looking at $8M to $10 M per year for 2021-2026 going with Arenado.
LargePapi
2:29
What kind of trade packages could the Mets make for Arenado? Minimizing impact on the farm system so the best prospect going to Colorado is a Josh Wolf/Isaiah Greene type
Craig Edwards
2:34
It's still really hard to build a reasonable Arenado trade. You can try to send back Cano with a couple longshot prospects, assuming Arenado waives his opt-out. That's what Arenado's value is in this market, but it is difficult to find a match is Colorado wants actual players back. Maybe Amed Rosario and J.D. Davis go with him. There's also the fact that Arenado doesn't play a position of need for the Mets.
brad NJ
2:34
What do you think of Kieboom, this year and long term?
Craig Edwards
2:34
I think he should hit at some point. Been a couple weird years between getting called up before he was ready and then playing in a pandemic. I'd give him time and he should still be an above-average hitter.
brad NJ
2:34
Wouldnt it make more sense for the Yankees to sign Bauer $30MM per year and Simmons $8MM per year, vs paying DJ $25MM per year and Tanaka $15MM per year, first group higher upside, and on average three years younger, second group more downside, older, and Tanaka has the bad elbow....What am I missing?
Craig Edwards
2:36
I'm pretty far down on LeMahieu versus the consensus so I might not be the best person to ask. I would absolutely sign Simmons or Wong and focus on the rotation and maybe catcher if I were the Yankees.
2:37
As for Tanaka, mentioned him in my ESPN piece today, but  bad elbow or not, he keeps making a ton of starts, which is probably a better indicator of his health. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30533547/age-just-number-3...
Tigers Fan
2:37
Bo Bichette an all star this year?
Craig Edwards
2:39
Shortstop is a tough position to crack. If Lindor stays in the AL, there's him, Correa, Bogaerts, and Gleyber Torres as well as Tim Anderson. Bichette certainly could make the roster, but it would be a slight surprise with what we know now.
Guest
2:39
Is Pederson enough to make the cards a contender(lite)
Craig Edwards
2:40
The Cardinals are a contender without him. Assuming they bring Yadi and Wainwright back, getting one decent lefty-hitting outfielder like Pederson or Schwarber or Gardner might make them favorites for the division depending on what the rest of the division does.
First Time Long Time
2:41
There are reports that Syndergaard could be back by June, which means back in 14 months. It seems like TJ recovery is getting shorter and shorter.
Craig Edwards
2:41
I still think 15 months is pretty standard. Might be back when we are still six months out is just guesswork right now.
Guest
2:41
Thoughts on the idea of tying DH to pitcher? Do you know how seriously this is being considered?
Craig Edwards
2:43
It's somewhat complicated. I think the real thing that might be beneficial is that it would force teams to carry more position players on the bench as pinch hitters. I'm also not sure you want to create a rule that will almost automatically take a good bat out of the lineup. I still want to see the best against the best whenever possible.
SomeGuy
2:44
What does an Arenado trade look like? How desperate are the Rockies to move him?
Craig Edwards
2:44
If Arenado gets traded, then they were, by definition, desperate.
Uri
2:44
What are your expectations for Paddack for 2021?
Craig Edwards
2:45
I expect him to be a lot better. Hopeful for a big rebound to 2019 or better numbers.
Tigers Fan
2:46
Is Gavin Lux a bust?  And if not why doesn't he get traded to a team with will play him?
Craig Edwards
2:46
No. He's just on a really good team, but hasn't hit as well as he will going forward. He just turned 23 years old. Give him a bit more time.
Load More Messages
Connecting…