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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--12/5/2019
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Alan
2:02
With the news that the Wilpons are giving up majority ownership soon, what could this mean for the team this offseason?
Craig Edwards
2:04
I think it makes absolutely no difference this offseason. If the Wilpons actually do sell, the money they are getting right now is probably just paying down their own debts. Five years is a long time before the new owner actually takes over.
Trent
2:04
If Wikipedia's net worth estimates are at all accurate, Steve Cohen is worth more than twice as much as any current MLB owners.  Should we expect the Mets to be running a significantly higher payroll sometime soon?
Craig Edwards
2:04
I'll believe it when it actually happens.
Jerry Dipoto
2:04
Are comp picks the most undervalued asset in baseball right now?
Craig Edwards
2:07
I think there's a decent argument they are overvalued. I know the draft is deep next year, but the pick the Mariners got is around 70th. By estimation, that's worth $3M to $4M or roughly a 40+ position player or 45 pitcher. That's a nice prospect to have but nothing special. I think teams just like having the ability to choose as opposed to getting a single player among a limited number of options.
Stuafoo
2:08
Navarez return feels light on the Ms side (though obviously can’t say how the pick will turn out yet). Shoot from the hip thoughts?
Craig Edwards
2:10
It wasn't a big haul, that's for sure. He's somewhat limited by his hope for a walk approach against lefties and very limited by his defense. The Brewers might be in a unique position to mitigate both of those factors with Manny Piña. To carry Narváez, you have to carry another near-starter level catcher and that limits the pool of trading partners.
Joe
2:11
Who fetches the highest return: Contreras, Baez, Rizzo, or Bryant (assuming he has two controllable years left)?
Craig Edwards
2:14
I think it would Báez 1, Bryant 1A, Rizzo, then Contreras. The first three should bring back a good return if moved but I put Báez first due to a relatively low salary and his ability at shortstop. Rizzo is slightly limited by playing first base compared to the other two. Contreras' value is limited in a similar vein to Narváez. I think Contreras is a guy the Cubs should have locked up a couple years ago and now they are in a weird spot with him.
Robert
2:16
Obviously, Contreras is better, but Caratini put up a very solid 108 +wRC in 2019, in addition to being an above average fielder, being cheaper, and having another year of control. So, what does a market for him look like as the possible Cubs catcher traded vs. Contreras?
Craig Edwards
2:18
It's not there as Caratini's defense still isn't stellar and he's got a career 89 wRC+. Most teams have a Caratini already.
adambulldog
2:18
Who is the best starting pitcher the Yankees could get in exchange for Andujar plus Frazier?
Craig Edwards
2:20
Hard to know how teams value those guys as Andujar didn't play while Frazier hasn't played well and will already be eligible for arbitration in 2021. If Colorado wanted to take a chance on them, maybe Jon Gray would be a fit. I don't know why the Yankees wouldn't just keep them and see if they can regain what they've lost. They can just go out and buy pitchers. They don't need to give up players when their value is low.
Dale Sveum
2:21
This question may be overly cynical but do you think owners are colluding to spend (almost stupidly, i.e. Moose) this offseason so they can call the past couple offseasons where they didn't spend outliers going into CBA negotiations? Or is there just more market demand as teams move out of their rebuilds?
Craig Edwards
2:24
White Sox, Reds, and Phillies do represent the teams looking to move out of rebuilding cycles so that's part of it. It's possible teams are seeing the value in tickets in creating a lot of noise in the offseason. In the not too distant past, the trend was to let the top guys establish the market and have everybody else fall in line. That hasn't worked the last couple seasons leaving many players with subpar deals. This is probably a combo of a few aggressive teams with agents doing a better job of understanding the market. We might see a slight increase in payroll for next season, but it isn't going to be some huge course correction.
I wrote about teams that might be spending here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/money-to-spend-whats-the-likely-state-of-t...
The lonely Oriole
2:24
What do you think of the Bundy trade, I have hind it was a win win
Craig Edwards
2:26
I don't love the Orioles side of it. They just added some very low-level depth which is something they already have a decent amount of. I think given where they are, they would have done better to gamble for half a season to see if Bundy might net some real prospects at the trade deadline. The risk is getting nothing, but the team is in position to take some risks right now.
Angels Fan
2:26
Dylan Bundy isn't our answer for the rotation, right?  He's just a reliable innings eater to tide us over until Cole, right?  (Also, how crazy is it that Dylan Bundy of all people is now a reliable innings eater?)
Craig Edwards
2:28
He's depth at the back end of the rotation that didn't cost a lot in prospects. He's a value play, but that rotation needs more than that. Cole or Strasburg make a ton of sense for the Angels.
Tony
2:29
Thoughts on what the Cardinals do this off-season? Hold pat, small moves, big move?
Craig Edwards
2:30
We might see some small moves, and they should get a starting pitcher, but they don't seem too likely to pull off a blockbuster.
BenZ
2:30
Do you know when Kyle Gibson will show up on the Rangers depth charts?
Craig Edwards
Guest
2:31
Marisnick to Mets?
Craig Edwards
2:32
As long as he only plays against lefties or if desperately needed when there is a fly ball pitcher on the mound, he'll be an average player, which is fine to have. He's not an everyday guy, but I don't think he'll be used in that role, either.
TomBruno23
2:32
Ryu and Miley make sense for the Cardinals, correct? No QO attached, ground ball guys..I'll hang up and listen (until my next question)
Craig Edwards
2:34
Ryu makes sense for just about everybody. Miley's September raises a lot of flags, which means he seems a better bet to go someplace where he's guaranteed a rotation spot, which wouldn't necessarily be St. Louis.
I am the Walrus
2:36
What do you think a trade of Bryant brings back in prospects assuming he loses his service time case?
Realmuto traded last yr with 2 yrs of team control.  Bryant now with 2 with team control.  Realmuto best 3 yr period was 4 WAR.   Bryant 6.  
Miami in a trade got Sanchez #21 prospect (according to MLB.com) and Mejia #26 prospect.

And even with only 1 yr of team control Goldschmidt was traded for Kelly #17, Weaver a controllable SP formerly #80.  And again only 1 yr of team control.  
So what say you?
Craig Edwards
2:37
I think Realmuto is a good comp. At the deadline, Bryant was ranked 25th by Kiley https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-21-to-30/
and Realmuto was 24th the year before. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2018-trade-value-21-to-30/
2:41
Sanchez was a 60 at the time of the trade and he carried a lot of risk. Alfaro's prospect shine had come off a bit so trying to put him at 26 is very aggressive. I think two top-100 prospects, one in the top 50 and one near the back end plus a flyer or two is probably reasonable. It's also why the Cubs shouldn't trade him if they want to compete.
Joe
2:42
Make sense of what the Reds do now with Senzel, Galvis, India and going for it?  What kind of package would need to be put together for Lindor or Betts?
Craig Edwards
2:44
I'm not sure that trade is likely, but as to the first part, they keep Senzel in center field. Galvis is the shortstop until they can find someone better and India tries to develop more game power in the minors. If that doesn't come around, he's not going to be able to force his way to the big leagues regardless of who is blocking him. If he hits well enough, the Reds will find a spot for him.
Matt
2:45
Why do people adore Kris Bryant?   I see an 88mph exit velocity(23rd percentile)
34% Hard Hit Rate(25th percentile)
Batted Ball Distance is trending down(204ft,196ft,186ft, 179ft this season)

He just hasn’t been right since 2016. I’m not saying he is doomed, but I feel he is the type of guy whose a good enough hitter to cover up the signs of “decline” until things suddenly collapse(Matt Carpenter?)
Craig Edwards
2:47
Bryant was a five-win player last year and he projects for the same this year. That's one of the top 20 players in baseball who has shown the ability to be more than that. He'll still only be 28 years old next season. You might be reaching a bit.
TomBruno23
2:47
From 1985-1992, Andy Van Slyke was 8th in MLB fWAR behind 7 HOFers and ahead of several others. How about that?
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