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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--2/6/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:03
Let's get things rolling.
Just curious
2:03
Scott Kingery is a AAAA player?
Craig Edwards
2:04
No. Kingery is good. He put up an average line last year despite a nearly 30% K-rate. That should drop a bit and will mitigate a loss in BABIP. He can play all over the field, too.
Jacob
2:05
What underrated team do you think will be the best in five years considering current players, prospects,
Craig Edwards
2:07
Five years is a massively long time in baseball. As a reminder, the Royals were World Series champs in 2015. None of the four LCS teams that year made the playoffs in 2019. Teams like the Tigers, Giants, and Mariners should be good by then.
vin scully is my jesus
2:07
if it is found that it is graterol's medicals that are holding up the Betts deal, isn't it on them to pony up more in asset capital to offset potential risks for the sox? That being said, Verdugo had a pretty awful back injury last year...
Craig Edwards
2:09
I would imagine that the Dodgers would add extra in this case. nothing major, a close to non-prospect or just take a little less cash for Price. There was always reliever risk with Graterol so it's hard to see this as a major change, though taking his chances of starter from 20% to 5% does make the trade look different from the Red Sox perspective.
vin scully is my jesus
2:10
Muncy's extension feels incredibly light for a guy coming off 5 war, even accounting for age... thoughts?
Craig Edwards
2:13
It's less about age and more about arbitration years. He was only going to make $4 million or so this year, so the $26 M pays a little more than what he might have made in his three arb years. The Dodgers get cost certainty and reduce his cap amount for 2022 plus one free agent season. It's a reasonable deal but makes it less likely that Muncy ever gets a good payout in free agency.
Adam
2:13
What does the Betts/Price trade say, if anything, about the market for Bryant?
Craig Edwards
2:14
I don't think it says a ton about since this deal included Price and his money. It does take away one potential suitor in the Dodgers and maybe two if the Angels had an outside shot at putting Bryant in the outfield. I think in terms of Verdugo plus Graterol, that's in the ballpark of a Bryant deal with maybe a little less volatility in terms of the prospects/plaeyrs coming back.
Yo-Yo
2:15
Where do you think STL's freed-up money goes after 2020? Molina/Wainwright/Cecil/Miller/Wieters' contracts get cleared, which is approximately $50 million. In 2021, Carpenter/Fowler nets $35 million. Arb raises eat into that, of course. Mookie looks good in red, right?
Craig Edwards
2:18
Time to bring back the Bowling Hall of Fame, I think. Flaherty and Bader will both be up for arbitration. I doubt the Cardinals would be in on Betts because they will do just about anything to avoid free agency, but it will be interesting to see the Cardinals outfield outlook at the end of 2020. Carlson should get an opportunity this year and Bader and O'Neill will get chances to show they belong in the future conversation. Betts could be a perfect fit if the younger guys don't advance like they want, but the rotation might need more help.
Bring Back Mookie
2:19
Craig, do you know anything about the Jessica Quiroli piece that links Verdugo to the hotel room assault that was part of the Kapler unpleasantness?
Craig Edwards
2:19
I don't know anything more than what the article says.
Mike
2:20
Hello. I was wonerding how much do you put into a player who said he made some off season adjusmnets? Thanks Mike
Craig Edwards
2:21
It's always good when you hear about a player working on things, but it is really hard to know how that's going to translate. Sometimes guys try to unlock their swing for more power and it ruins everything. Some guys try to go the other way and it ruins their power. It's great when a player can identify a weakness, but it is hard to know much until we see it in action.
CodyBellinger
2:21
Will RBI baseball exsist after MLB the Show goes to Xbox and Switch? The ratings for The Show are better than RBI, and now they don't have the multi-platform advantage
Craig Edwards
2:21
Ask Paul Sporer. He knows way more about it.
Overbearing Padre
2:22
Seems like the contracts of Hosmer and Myers are going to continue hindering the Padres' chances of succeeding. What should they do, or is accepting that those deals will exclude them from acquiring top tier talent in the short-term/hurting their playoff hopes all they can do?
Craig Edwards
2:24
Well, in theory the team benefited from the first three years of the Myers contract by paying him barely anything. With Hosmer, they've just got to let him play and hope he puts up one of his good years. For Myers, if they can unload the contract by eating a bunch of the money, they should just move on. They shouldn't be including good prospects to get rid of these guys when they could just not play them if the team has better options.
Bob
2:25
Devils advocate: How much does the upgrade of Mookie over Verdugo help the Dodger WS odds when you take into account the offsetting loss of pitching depth and loss of the underrated Joc platoon? Is it really enough to justify the loss of a quality guy like Verdugo (cheap as he is) over the next several years, and the loss of cheap depth that Maeda and Stripling provide? There are opportunity costs here, and the money spent to fill those holes could have been spent elsewhere. Also, the Dodgers farm system value mainly seems to be tied up in guys that have already reached the majors, so internal replacements seem to be more limited than it would appear at first blush.
Craig Edwards
2:26
Jay wrote about the Dodgers staff recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-price-would-offer-dodgers-more-name-...
2:29
but adding price and subtracting both maeda and stripling does take away some of that depth, but they still go eight deep in potential quality starters so I'm not sure the rotation loses anything. If they re-sign Betts, they don't have any outfield spots open for Verdugo anyway. If they don't, then they can find decent corner outfielders on the FA market. It's a pretty clear win for the Dodgers, assuming this all goes through.
MLB Fan
2:29
If the Red Sox had intentions of paying down David Price contract to 3 years at 16 million a year, do you think that a few teams would have been interested in trading for him.  Sounds like a very fair contract.  I think they messed up here.
Craig Edwards
2:30
If Price were a free agent coming off a season where he didn't finish it and offseason wrist surgery, he might get 1/15 or 2/25 as a FA. I don't see how individually, any team would take on 3/48. He would have to prove he was healthy first.
Morbo
2:30
Do you have any information on the likelihood that that Carlos Martinez will be in the Cardinal's rotation or bullpen the season?
Craig Edwards
2:31
He will be given every opportunity to make the rotation, where he would be of more value. It's up to his arm staying healthy as the pitch counts go up in spring and being able to recover after throwing 60-80 pitches in mid-march.
Bart
2:32
What are the chances that the three team trade involving Betts falls apart because of Gaterol's medical history?
Craig Edwards
2:32
I think pretty low.
Jerome
2:32
How did the big Mookie trade affect the Playoff/WS odds for the A's and Rays?
Craig Edwards
2:33
for the playoff odds, they go way up. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Sox playoff odds drop 50% and teams like the Rays and A's and Indians, White Sox, and Angels are going to benefit from that.
Blue Radley
2:33
If the Joc Pederson + Stripling deal goes through, how serious a threat are the Angels in the AL West/Wild Card?
Craig Edwards
2:34
They were a threat before this deal, maybe not the AL West, but needed things to break right with pitching. Stripling means one more thing can go wrong before the bottom falls out. They still need pitching, but they got an upgrade in the outfield plus depth at a position of need.
Mr. Metropolitan
2:35
Move to the NL, pitcher's park half the time, but below average defense behind him.  Is Rick Porcello a solid bounce-back candidate?  Thoughts on Wacha as well?
Craig Edwards
2:36
Not a huge believer in either one. I think the effects you talk  about will help, but that's more to make him league-average, maybe a little above. Wacha just hasn't been healthy. I do wonder if he'd do better as a reliever full time.
Guest
2:36
A lot of people are doing this math: Betts 2020 value < Value of Verdugo & Graterol for 5/6 years. Buuuut if they're not trying to compete in 2020 aren't they kinda wasting all the excess value of their cheap cost controlled stars? Shouldn't that enter the calculation?
Craig Edwards
2:37
Ben Clemens sort of did the math on that here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-sox-shouldnt-trade-mookie-betts/
2:38
and basically punting playoff odds in 2020 isn't worth the slight increase in 2021-2023.
Guest
2:38
Can you link to your approximate evaluations for prospects?
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