JotCast | Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--3/21/2019

Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--3/21/2019

Craig Edwards

2:00

Let's get this thing rolling.

2:00

In the most general sense possible, who has the better offensive season this year: Juan Soto or Ronald Acuna?

Craig Edwards

2:01

Got to be Soto. More valuable is an interesting question, and I think I lean Acuna there, but just offense, have to bet on Juan.

CamdenWarehouse

2:02

do expect Brinson to take a big step forward this year?

Craig Edwards

2:03

Almost anything semi-productive would be a big step forward, but if he could approach average at the plate and use his speed, he should be at least average overall which I think would be a good middle step toward fulfilling his potential.

BrewCrew

2:03

Super stoked to see Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta all make the rotation. Which one is most likely to breakout this year?

Craig Edwards

2:04

I agree it is really exciting. I would put them in the order you did.

SLUGGIN' ASS DEX

2:04

i don't have a question

Craig Edwards

2:06

yet your name might provide an answer. Fowler could really make things easy on the Cardinals by having a good couple weeks at the beginning of the season. A rebound for Fowler might only be to an average player, but there isn't a big difference between that and Martinez or O'Neill right now. I'm still skeptical of Fowler, but if you go with him now, it's hard not to give him at least six weeks, which would be really hard if he struggles out of the gate.

Aceman

2:06

With all these early extebsions will Boras have to cave in and start having his guys sign extensions instead of waiting for free agency

JAMES

2:06

Are all these extensions for elite players going to increase what players who actually reach free agency get in the next couple years? like Rendon and Betts?

Craig Edwards

2:08

I put these two together. It's possible that more extensions make the top of the free agent market the same as it has always been so no adjustment needed. The middle tier of players, which are the ones who come with a lot of questions, like pitchers in their 30s, where extensions might make more sense, which is what we saw with Nola and Severino.

Don Juan

2:08

Would you be buying Kershaw at today's current price?

Craig Edwards

2:09

I would have a hard time signing just about any pitcher to a big deal who couldn't pitch in a game today, Kershaw included. That's particularly true when the injury is arm-ish related with the potential to linger.

Manly

2:09

What's Bellinger's ceiling like?

Craig Edwards

2:11

MVP. Granted two years ago somebody asked if I would take Judge or Bellinger and I took Bellinger. If he can so just a bit better at the plate than he did in 2017 and play okay defense, that's going to be close to MVP-type consideration.

Ryan

2:11

Does Trout's extension make him the undisputed trade-value king for the next five or six years or so?

Craig Edwards

2:12

I think so, at least the next two or three, though there are still a few teams that might shy away from that contract, no matter how good it is.

Don Juan

2:12

Thoughts on how crazy it is that there are so many very good second gen players right now (Vlad, Mondesi, Bichette, tatis...)

Craig Edwards

2:12

That's interesting question. Is it better than the Bonds, Griffey group we had a little bit ago. Obviously not yet.

Marc

2:13

Did the White Sox overstep in giving a contract to Eloy, or will this become the next big thing to do with top prospects? I find it hard to swallow that the White Sox believe more in Eloy than the Blue Jays believe in Vlad.

Craig Edwards

2:15

I don't know about next big thing, but there is probably some value in avoiding a grievance. The White Sox didn't exactly win big in this deal compared to doing nothing as it is a reasonable deal for both sides given the current system. The Vlad issue resolved itself for Toronto, but he's still on another level from Eloy which makes reaching a deal more difficult.

Don Juan

2:15

Thoughts on Aldaberto Mondesi?

Craig Edwards

2:17

I think he's a good player with potential to be a lot better. He's also a reminder that prospects take time to develop and can go through long periods of being unable to hit before learning and developing what it takes against the best competition.

Roger

2:17

Spring training stats mean nothing, I know, but they can still set up some interesting questions: for example, do you think Tanner Roark (24:4 K:BB ratio this spring) or Jon Gray (22:1 K:BB ratio) will have the better year?

Craig Edwards

2:18

I would take Jon Gray by a lot in this scenario. Gray got pretty unlucky for half a year despite pitching pretty well, then came back and looked really good for a month before wearing down at the end of the year. I expect Gray to be very good. I expect Roark to pitch a decent amount of innings at an average level.

Vader

2:19

Bieber is having a fantastic Spring. Do you think he can carry it over to the regular season?

Craig Edwards

2:19

I would focus more on Bieber's good 2018. His ERA was inflated and masked really good overall numbers.

Cody

2:20

With the recent news about Luzardo, will we see the A's pursue another starter via free agency before the season starts? Or will they rely on their internal depth?

Craig Edwards

2:21

I would expect them to roll with what they've got at this point, but wouldn't rule out a minor trade or seeing which guys are affected by a roster crunch elsewhere. I don't see them pursuing Keuchel.

JAMES

2:22

How could Gio not get a Major league contract offer? He has to be better than the number 5 for at least half of the teams in baseball

Craig Edwards

2:24

There's probably a lot we don't know in terms of what might be considered an offer or not and what demands he might have been making. If his agent says he wants 3/50 and a team doesn't respond with an offer that's a different situation than him calling teams asking for some offer and getting nothing. It's hard to read too much into it either way.

Trevor

2:24

Glasnow seems to have gotten some love since joining the Rays, but his xFIP with the Rays and Pirates last year was exactly the same, and his FIP with the Rays was much worse. What is the reason for the newfound optimism with the new club?

Craig Edwards

2:25

If you can pitch just as well as a starter as you did as a reliever, that is actually a pretty big improvement.

Johnny5Alive

2:25

giants really doing closer by committee?

Craig Edwards

2:27

Do they really have any better options? It might work out better for them anyway to not be tied down to someone who might keep the job for longer than they deserve.

Reagan

2:27

Do you think when luzardo comes back from injury do you think he will come straight to the majors?

Craig Edwards

2:28

No, I would imagine some time in the minors to get him back up to speed will be necessary.

Vader

2:28

Who will be an All Star this year that will surprise most?

Craig Edwards

2:28

Hunter Strickland?