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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--3/21/2019
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Jsto
2:29
Will MLB ever end blackouts on MLB. tv? So frustrating that I could not watch the first two games of the season as I don’t get ESPN!
Craig Edwards
2:30
While frustrating, the national games are less of an issue than the local ones. The maps are crying out to be redrawn, but there are going to be local blackouts for as long as cable networks keep offering millions for exclusivity. The time might be coming where that changes, but it isn't in the immediate future.
Jon Singleton
2:30
ELOY DID NOTHING WRONG
Craig Edwards
2:32
I don't see any reason for outrage at this particular deal. He just guaranteed himself more than $40 million and will get about $60 million in his first seven years, which is when he would have been a free agent. That's a ton of money during arbitration. For that price, he gave up one year of free agency. The system makes him a bargain, regardless of contract. Be mad at the system, not Jimenez.
Trent
2:33
Re: Surprising All Stars: the answer should always be a hitherto unheralded reliever, like Jeremy Jeffress, or Joe Jimenez, or Steven Delabar, or Brendan Donnelly . . . the list goes on and on.
Craig Edwards
2:33
For sure, though some starter is going to have a really good half like Miles Mikolas and a few players will come out of nowhere relative to perception.
andy
2:34
What actor has most tragically never been cast as a lovable but befuddled manager in a classic baseball movie, and why is it Stephen Root?
Craig Edwards
2:35
I would argue that Stephen Root has done a great job with his roles and a befuddled manager would be a waste of his talents. We're talking about Jimmy James, here.
Vader
2:35
Looks like the Mets could really use a RH bat in the middle of their lineup. Does Alonso get the most AB's there after April?
Craig Edwards
2:36
Tell me how Dom Smith does this month and I'll have a better answer. I'm inclined to say yes to the question.
Thomas
2:36
Do you like Bieber or Buehler to have a better 2019?  And how about a better career?
Craig Edwards
2:37
Buehler for both, though I do have some injury concerns about Buehler given his past and just how hard he throws, though that might be unwarranted.
Roland
2:38
What will Kikuchi's final stat line look like this year?
Craig Edwards
2:40
The projections say 141 innings with 4.40 FIP, and that seems pretty reasonable though I could see it a lot closer to four if he is getting pulled pretty early.
Alan
2:41
Dakota Hudson or John Gant? And how long do they keep that 5th starter role?
Craig Edwards
2:43
I like both in that end of rotation role and think piggybacking them early on wouldn't be a bad idea though it looks like Hudson is going to get the early nod. Hudson hasn't been able to miss bats in the minors despite what should be a pitch to get them with in the slider. He's a pretty extreme groundball guy and how long he stays in the the rotation is going to depend on Wacha and Wainwright staying in it once the Cardinals get Martinez back in a month or two.
Norman
2:44
If the Brewers and As don't want to splurge on Kimbrel or Keuchel to account for their recent pitcher injuries, who are the best FA alternatives?  Miguel Gonzales? Jim Johnson? Ryan Madson?  It's a grim assortment of pitchers still left unsigned.
Craig Edwards
2:44
It's really slim. I would expect internal replacements to be the answer if the two better pitchers aren't willing to settle for a one or two year deal.
Josh R
2:46
Is FanGraphs still considering the AL to be the superior league? Isn't that incorporated into projections and values?  It sure seems like the NL has surpassed the AL by quite a bit.
Craig Edwards
2:48
That's a good question I don't have the answer to. It was much closer last season and might have gotten even closer this offseason. The AL is certainly more top-heavy and has the advantage with NY, BOS, and Houston over the Dodgers, Nats, and Cubs, but the big middle of the NL might make them better. Adding up the projections on this page, which doesn't account for schedule, should tell you. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
2:49
Lar
2:49
Thoughts on D. German? Doing well this Spring but is it just noise or the real deal?
Craig Edwards
2:51
He was pretty good last year, but he pitches in a park that is tough for his skills and could have trouble against lefties. I think he might be an average starter right now, which is pretty good.
Hello
2:51
deGrom extension prediction?
Craig Edwards
2:52
He's got about $40 million coming to him the next two seasons, so I think 6/150, 7/175 would make sense.
HappyFunBall
2:52
Severino 4/40, Nola 4/45, Snell 5/50 ... holy cow is young pitching cheap if you drafted it!
Craig Edwards
2:55
With the risk of injury so high, pitchers seem okay holding off free agency for that guarantee. Snell's an interesting case because on the one hand, he's still a year away from arbitration unlike Severino and Nola, but on the other, that Cy Young means he is in a different stratosphere when it comes to arbitration. He might have been looking at double what the other guys were. At the same time, he is a minimum salaried guy this season and the year before arbitration has always been the best time to try and sign guys because you have the most information about them before they actually become financially set.
Dexter's Sexters
2:56
Sluggin' ass Dex is back, baby! Mark him down for 3 WAR.
Craig Edwards
2:56
Don't let anybody tell you Cardinals fans don't like Dexter Fowler. Two homers in a spring game and he's getting all sorts of love, or something like it.
Lance Mannion
2:57
Hi  your thoughts on Greg Allen, another yo yo year for him or does he stay up Thanks
Craig Edwards
2:59
I think he has to prove to MLB pitchers that he can do some sort of damage against him. His patience played well in the minors because the pitchers just aren't as good. I imagine he'll get a shot but he needs to be aggressive and start hitting the ball harder if he wants to be a permanent starter.
Brett
3:00
How do you see the Padres OF situation playing out?
Craig Edwards
3:01
I think Franmil, Margot, and Myers is the best bet for most playing time and I think it should be at least average overall with Reyes the best bet to break out.
Fat Matt
3:02
Really glad you have a chat now.  After the playoff chats last year I was hoping you'd have one soon.  Keep up the great work!
Craig Edwards
3:02
Thank you. With that, we'll close things up for the day.
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