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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--3/26/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:02
Let's get going.
Dan
2:02
I just want to say thanks for the chats. Even when I'm not able to attend reading them later gives me a sense of community and normalcy (see even when things get weird fangraphers are refreshingly normal compared to other groups I interact with these days)
Craig Edwards
2:03
Thank you for reading them. The queue has been much lighter the last few weeks with no baseball on the immediate horizon, but it is always good to talk a little baseball even if the subjects aren't quite what we were hoping for.
tony
2:04
How would notorious "slow-starter" Mark Texeira fare in 2020 assuming a season actually happens? Great season because he worked out the kinks with BP and sim game ABs before the late opening day? Or bad season because a bigger chunk of it was eaten up by the slow start?
Craig Edwards
2:07
That's hard to say, but it is very dependent on why Teixeira put up a 105 wRC+ in April compared to 130 in all other months. If it it was weather-related, we'd expect that not to be a factor now. If it was related to getting up to speed, then it maybe two abbreviated springs would be enough to work out the kinks. I suspect having had spring one would be a net benefit by the time the season rolled around.
Curtis
2:07
If one city plays games without fans, don't all cities have to? or how will MLB address that if it comes to starting the season but to the idea of empty stadiums?
Craig Edwards
2:09
If a city can play games with fans, they will absolutely do it. I would imagine the players would rather go to a game with fans even if it meant that the other team had some sort of advantage. Also, being used to playing games with no fans might be an advantage for the home team, anyway. the bottom line is if a team can charge fans to come watch them, they will do it. Could make revenue sharing pretty wild, though.
John
2:09
Who schedules a FanGraphs chat during Game 6 of the World Series?
Craig Edwards
2:10
How is David Freese doing in the game? Has he recovered from that botched fly ball?
diadem
2:10
With the talk of one or two doubleheaders a week would that not require at least the #5 and #6 starters on the depth chart to get more starts? Or would the opener strategy be more prevalent giving relief pitchers more innings? Would rookie starters (May, Gonsolin, I Anderson, Howard etc. get to the show quicker?
Craig Edwards
2:14
That depends on the roster rules and if teams get a bunch of extra players. I think there would be more rookie pitchers in that scenario. I think the opener would be more prevalent regardless. Most teams don't even have five quality starters, let alone six so openers would be more of an option for teams without quality starting depth.
Appa Yip Yip
2:15
We're half an inning and two Elvis Andrus errors away from The Bat Flip. Prepare yourself accordingly.
Craig Edwards
2:15
I'm currently watching Kyle Lohse attempt to bunt.
2:16
Here's Ben Clemens' viewing guide for today's action if you are starved for baseball. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-opening-day-viewing-guide/
Brian
2:16
I know we don't have a lot of concrete info on service time but how do you think prospects who otherwise would have had their service time "manipulated" to start the season will get treated?
Craig Edwards
2:19
I suspect it will still get manipulated, though there aren't as many clear-cut candidates this season.
2:20
Two minute break. Baby just had a huge poop I need to take care of.
2:22
Okay. I'm back. Lance Berkman is up.
Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench
2:22
How much will ballpark factors affect Mookie going from Fenway to Dodger Stadium?
Craig Edwards
2:25
I doubt there's that much of an effect. Betts' value isn't hugely reliant on homers and his xwOBA and wOBA in his career have matched up pretty well. He underperformed his xwOBA by quite a bit last season. Expecting him to get back up to a 185 WRC+ isn't reasonable, but it isn't too far-fetched to see him get above 135 by quite a bit.
Scotty
2:25
Lets say Thor comes back next season and pitches 50-75 innings with 3.50 FIP and good peripherals and velo, what kind of contract would he be looking for?
Craig Edwards
2:27
If he looks good, I think he'll still get a healthy deal, maybe something resembling Wheeler's deal. He might have been  in line for double that with two good, healthy seasons, but he should still get a very good deal.
Jake Westbrook now pitching for the Cardinals against Nelson Cruz.
#1CraigEdwardsFan
2:28
I filled out your poll about the start of the season.  What were your answers?
Craig Edwards
2:30
I think we'll be in the 76-100 game range with a July start. I do think there will be some games in empty stadiums with at least a few games in spring training stadiums. I think the season will end in early November and I'm hopeful there will be an added round to the postseason. Here's my preferred postseason structure. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/modifying-the-2020-playoffs-to-account-for...
eloquentboot
2:31
Craig, please give me your best home budgeting advice.
Craig Edwards
2:32
I'm not sure what the best advice is, but I'd say write down everything you spend and plan your groceries around meals you make at home. If possible, use a separate savings account that you put a set amount in so that it is different from your checking account.
Jason
2:33
Screw the MLB and their insistence on screwing amateur players. Only 10 rounds and a $10K max for undrafted players is ridiculous and has seemingly no correlation to Covid.
Craig Edwards
2:33
This is a reference to this piece by Kiley McDaniel. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28957785/sources-mlb-mlbpa-close-d...
2:39
I think there's a way to the draft within the framework they discuss. A minimum bonus of 100k or more should be in there because if you are doing fewer rounds, there shouldn't be the same moving bonus pool stuff around. The no bonuses for undrafted players over 10k is pretty revealing in its intent. It makes the move an obvious cash-saving one and not one based on the difficult circumstances presented by COVID-19. If a player is good enough now to make his pro debut, he should be able to do that without the constraint of a 10k bonus. It's essentially telling many good players not to try and turn pro this year, which is bad. It effectively turns next year into a superdraft, but if bonuses are the same as a normal year, then all the good prospects end up with half what they might have otherwise.
2:41
David Freese with the homer. What a moment. I was sitting on my couch at home knowing that I had already spent money I didn't have on a Game 7 ticket. When it looked like the series was going to end in six games, I had consoled myself with the knowledge that at least I would get back the money I had spent foolishly. Instead, I went crazy on my couch at home and then took a bus from Chicago to St. Louis to see Game 7.
I miss baseball
2:41
Everyone, this was discussed in Dan's chat, but please consider supporting FanGraphs via membership (if you can).  I think we can all agree this is an amazing site
Craig Edwards
2:44
That's very kind of you. FanGraphs needs people to read the site, but that is understandably more difficult without actual baseball to comment on. I think everyone here at FanGraphs is proud of the work we are still producing and find that work interesting, even compelling, but there's no doubt that not as many people are reading about baseball right now. If you are inclined to support the site right now, a membership or going ad-free is a great way to do so. https://plus.fangraphs.com/product/fangraphs-membership/
Russ
2:44
Any guess on how the expected long term delay in season starting impacts the level of play? Old players are still going to age out but new players development is paused?
Craig Edwards
2:47
I suspect the level of play will still be incredibly high. It's possible we notice more rust-like plays, but sometimes that's because we are looking for them, not because they are actually happening more.
I miss baseball
2:47
Do you play OOTP?
Craig Edwards
2:48
I do not. I've done fantasy baseball and ottoneu, though I'm not particularly good at either one. I tend to let bias and rooting interests cloud my judgment. I find that is more fun, though not super-conducive to winning.
I miss baseball
2:48
Do you play The Show?
Craig Edwards
2:49
I think the last sports video game I played on a regular basis had Clint Dempsey starring at Fulham on my PS3.
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