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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--3/5/2020
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Moose_Bolton
2:01
Has there ever been a time that the sample size of Spring Training has been enough to convince you that a player's performance has genuinely changed?
Craig Edwards
2:03
In terms of box score statistics, not that I can remember. We'll get to the end of spring and a pitcher having one good game where he's finally going five innings and has a good outing and that's probably more meaningful than the rest of the spring to show that he's ready, but I'd probably want to have seen the outing to be sure. If a pitcher is throwing harder, that's something to monitor. If they've been working on a new pitch and it's still being thrown and looks good at the end of spring training, that's meaningful.
2:05
The undercurrent of all those statements is the scouting side, not the statistical. Seeing players do things in spring is much more important than seeing a player went two for four in the box score having no idea who he was facing or what the quality of opponent/contact was.
Mountie Votto
2:05
Which Reds RP ends with the most WAR this year? Iglesias or the field?
Craig Edwards
2:05
You should probably always take the field in cases like this given any one pitcher could have a nice breakout or Iglesias could hurt.
Beeks
2:06
How excited should I be as a Brewers fan right now???
Craig Edwards
2:07
The team should be in contention for the fourth straight season. That's something to be pretty excited about. It does look like the team is taking a slight step back from where they were a year ago, but signing Yelich to that extension should hopefully make up for some of that in terms of enthusiasm.
Jamie
2:07
How do signing bonuses work with regards to the luxury tax if a player gets traded?  In my head I’ve been wondering why we don’t see more mid-tier FA’s get slightly overpaid on frontloaded/bonus based contracts by rebuilding teams and then flipped to contenders at a more reasonable rate - a guy like Alex Wood seems like a good pick for this sort of deal (were he not already on a team).  Is that a practical thought or will players that can get multimillion dollar deals just ignore rebuilding teams as long as they have other offers?
Craig Edwards
2:08
The competitive balance tax salary is the Average Annual Value of the Contract so front- or backloading a deal or including a signing bonus doesn't matter. It's all about total guaranteed value divided by years.
Mountie Votto
2:08
What does playing time for Nick Senzel look like this year?
Craig Edwards
2:08
I honestly don't know, but I sure hope he gets and he's healthy all season.
Danny K.
2:09
Regarding the prospect valuation study you did back in 2018, given that an 80 FV player was only theoretical at the time, how would you value someone like Wander Franco?
Craig Edwards
2:11
I don't know, like $150 M- $180 M present day value, maybe. I think if there were actual bidding for his services or he were declared a free agent or something, his market might end up less than what he's actually worth, which is probably something like $250 - $300 M over the next decade just because of fear of failure given he's not yet in the majors.
Vader
2:11
Hi Craig!  What do you think the Dodgers do with Stripling? Will he eventually be traded so he can start, or do they just keep him in the swing role out of the pen as just another depth piece?
Craig Edwards
2:12
I think they probably just move him back and forth as needed. If the Dodgers don't have to trade him, they shouldn't as starting pitching depth is very valuable in a long season and Stripling's ability to pitch in the pen is doubly helpful.
Johnny5Alive
2:12
This "mic' up" of the players during these spring training games has been actually kind of fun.  I imagine part of it is because they are meaningless games so the guys are more jovial than serious, and I imagine it won't continue into regular season ball.  But you can't have watched clips from yesterday's Mets games with Alonso, McNeil, Smith and Davis all miked up and riffing on each other and not think that is a good direction for baseball to go...
Craig Edwards
2:13
I think it is something that works better in spring or at the All-Star game, but it might be nice to see it occasionally in season, maybe on some MLB network broadcasts once a week or something. We'd at least find out if players would still be as loose.
Vader
2:13
Considering the injuries to the Yankees outfield, do you think Andujar gets regular at bats and sees over 550 plate appearances?
Craig Edwards
2:14
It's certainly a possibility though he's going to have to keep hitting and playing well enough defensively, though if he just hits, he can still DH, too.
Nick
2:17
Which single unit (e.g., Reds' outfield, Blue Jays' starting rotation, Phillies' bullpen) will see the biggest improvement from 2019 to 2020?
Craig Edwards
2:19
It might actually be the Phillies rotation, though Mets bullpen, Angels infield and White Sox outfield should all tke big steps forward.
Soto
2:19
What is it like being the Cardinals' puff piece guy?
Craig Edwards
2:20
It's great. It means that people are generally paying attention to whether I'm the author on pieces.
The Jay Strain
2:20
baseball salaries are weird - i feel bad for guys like Jon Lucroy who took an early deal and probably missed out on career earnings of 80+ mil and then someone like Edwin Jackson can hit free agency at the right time and score 50+ mil.
Craig Edwards
2:21
That's why there probably should be some balancing to get players money earlier which would be more fair, but also prevent some of those extensions that provide security and work out so well for the teams.
Mark
2:21
Over/under 50.5IP for Chris Sale this season?
Craig Edwards
2:21
yikes. I'll say over, but it isn't looking good right now.
Mountie Votto
2:22
Follow-up question...which Reds RP has the best chance for your aforementioned "nice breakout"
Craig Edwards
2:23
Stephenson was pretty darn good last season, but Garrett, Lorenzen and Strop could all be worth a win or more this season.
dezre
2:24
Does Rafael Devers make any more gains, or was last year his peak performance? Would be hard to believe, at such a young age, that he doesn't get a little better...
Craig Edwards
2:25
I certainly wouldn't predict more than six wins for almost any player, though Devers is just 23 so a few more walks and a few more homers could put him in MVP consideration.
brad penny for your thoughts
2:25
how do you think fowlers playing time is going to work out?  will he be starter on opening day regardless of ST performance?  any way StL could try and move him?
Craig Edwards
2:27
I think odds are he is the starter on Opening Day. I think he could get his time cut some if he struggles. The $33 million owed to him make him hard to move to begin with. If he struggles, St. Louis would have to pay down nearly all the money and send him to a place Fowler was willing to go. There probably isn't a great match out there. That would require St. Louis to just cut him and that probably isn't likely. I could see Fowler transitioning to a fourth outfielder role if O'Neill hits and Carlson continues to rake.
2:28
I wrote on the outfield situation earlier this week. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-messy-outfield-situation/
Kevin
2:28
Article Idea if you want it: Trea Turner has stolen 20 of his 78 bases the past 2 years against the Mets, caught once. Maybe he's not the most elite base stealer, just the 1 with the best opportunity. Reminds me of Torres HR total
Craig Edwards
2:28
I think it says more about the Mets than Turner.
Mountie Votto
2:28
With Freddy Galvis going down with a quad strain, where do the Reds go at SS? Assuming it's at least somewhat serious, they can't actually roll with Farmer/Blandino can they?
Craig Edwards
2:29
I wouldn't think so. I wonder if there's a small deal to be made out there.
Vader
2:29
Will D May be a regular in the Dodger rotation by next season, or will the Dodger depth keep him in Stripling territory?
Craig Edwards
2:29
They might just move him around to keep his innings down.
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