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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--3/5/2020
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Christian
2:31
Should the Red Sox bother trying to fill their second base void? Or is this season a lost cause after the Betts/Price trade and the Sale injury?
Craig Edwards
2:31
They might as well give Chavis a shot, I suppose and then see if Peraza can rebound a bit. Not sure there's much they can really do about it right now.
robert
2:31
Thoughts on CarMart's spring? Does he look like he can be back to 2016 production?
Craig Edwards
2:32
He's looked good from what I've seen. Just need to get him stretched out and hope for no more injury complications. Number four type starter seems like a more reasonable expectation right now, but in stretches he looks like a pitcher who could slot right behind Jack Flaherty.
Vader
2:33
I’m hearing good things about Eovaldi this Spring. Sounds like his velocity is back and he’s been effective. Do you believe he can take a step forward and be a viable starter?
Craig Edwards
2:33
It's certainly possible, but he's got a few more hurdles to clear.
Theo Epstein
2:33
After ending 2 World Series droughts, my legacy as one of the greatest MLB execs ever is secure. Rather than going to a new MLB franchise, should I pull a DePodesta and sign on to be the GM of the Chicago Bulls?
Craig Edwards
2:34
That's probably asking too much of Epstein.
Jason N
2:34
The Padres want to dump the Wil Myers contract.  Does the player cost they have to give up change much if they do in offseason vs mid season?  My hypothesis:  Myers is most valued if packaged with prospects to non-contenders during offseason or with expiring Contract talent to contenders mid season (think: Richards and Yates).  I don’t hear much about trade value changes when less control over the player is the desired thing.
Craig Edwards
2:37
On July 31, Myers value as a player likely will have not changed at all, but he will be owed something close to $15 million less money. His negative value gets reduced over time because the money owed goes down. Plus it is easier to take on a smaller amount in a single season when you know where you are in terms of contention and payroll and have better planning for 2021 and 2022.
Kevin
2:37
How much do coaching philosophies change teams? Thinking about Matheny in KC (not going to run), or Madden in LAA. Or do styles typically change given the personnel? I just don't want to see Justin Upton hitting leadoff to get him out of a funk
Craig Edwards
2:40
I think player personnel dictates the most, but the organizational philosophy should flow through to the manager. Teams pick managers that can execute whatever philosophy they already have, generally. It will be interesting to see what Maddon's philosophy is right now in LA. With Tampa Bay and Chicago, he was very effective at constantly moving guys around the field and keeping them ready and on their toes for whatever, but the last few years in Chicago as players were established, we saw less of that and there might not be as many opportunities with the Angels, though LaStella and Fletcher do present those kinds of opportunities.
Kevin
2:41
Do you think Cavan Biggio could be Brian Dozier of old? On-base skills, power/speed combo seem to be in place.
Craig Edwards
2:42
Maybe, but we might be underrating Brian Dozier a bit. He was popping a ton of home runs before the superjuiced ball. I don't think the power is quite to that level with Biggio.
Vader
2:42
I’m hearing good things about Josh James this Spring. Do you believe he can take a step forward and run with the 5th starter job?
Craig Edwards
2:43
It's possible, though the things he's been asked to do so far in spring aren't that different from what he's been successful with so far. The next few outings should tell us a lot more.
Guest
2:43
In terms of competitiveness, how will the olympics under the new team construction rules compare to the WBC? No major leaguers but a larger amount of high minors top prospects
Craig Edwards
2:44
It will still be significantly below. WBC has gotten great participation from the game's best players while even those high end prospects aren't necessarily ready to be even average at the big leagues right now.
dave in slc
2:44
does your gut tell you carlson begins the year up with the cards or down in aaa?
Craig Edwards
2:45
I'm 50/50 on it, but I'll go ahead and say St. Louis because it would be more fun.
Sam
2:46
Is WAR missing out on something in evaluating positional versatility. For example, players like Jeff McNeil or early career Kris Bryant played corner outfield instead of there natural infield positions to help get better bats in their teams' lineups around them, however, WAR penalizes this fact in two ways - by giving them a worse positional adjustment and because their defensive metrics will be slightly worse. Is there a context neutral solution to this problem?
Craig Edwards
2:50
I'm not sure anything really needs to be done about it. Taking Bryant for example, when he made about one-third of his starts in the outfield in 2016, the positional difference between that and 2017 was a total of three runs. The main thing versatility does is keep that player in the lineup and allows them to keep producing.
Vader
2:50
Do you think the Phillies try to re-sign Realmuto after this season, even when they don't make the playoffs? Or who signs him next year, considering the Yankees and Dodgers don't need a catcher?
Craig Edwards
2:52
I would imagine they would try to bring him back given next year's FA class isn't great and I doubt they are in play for Mookie Betts. I would think the Rangers, Angels, Mariners, Astros, and Mets would all be interested.
Vader
2:53
What’s your best guess on the number of innings the Angels allow Ohtani to pitch this season, and will they allow him to go 6 innings a start?

I’d hate to see the Angels waste a year of Ohtani!
Craig Edwards
2:53
I don't know, maybe 120? I would think six innings would be reasonable if he's pitching a good game, but more five inning starts is more valuable than fewer starts but going six innings.
Jerome
2:54
What extension offer could the A's present to Semien that he would have to think hard about accepting? Is there a chance the A's could get him for something like 4/$85 or 5/$100? (Obviously I'm putting aside for the moment that the A's ownership probably won't allow such spending).
Craig Edwards
2:56
I could see something like that. There are some pretty big variables with Semien that makes projecting him difficult. His one good season with the bat was due in part to a big increase in power that we don't know will be the same if the ball changes. If Semien repeats last season, $100 million looks laughably low, but if he goes back to being a four-win player, then we are in the ballpark.
Kevin
2:57
How much of a sample do you need for a reasonable assumption of skills change? Jorge Soler: 7.5% and 28.9% K & walk rate 1st half, 14.8% and 23% second half (Sept was his worst month so its not a question of competition). Something here?
Craig Edwards
2:59
I think in this case, you are better off just looking at the full season numbers. Those walk numbers could be pitchers respecting Soler more without him actually changing who he was. If he's doing the same thing after 150 PA this season, then I'm more likely to believe that second half was more real than the full season numbers when talking about his current talent level.
mike
3:00
After reviewing the Yankees system yesterday, it looks like Law's rating them 5th or 6th best is overly high..they look middle of the pack to me. What do you think?
Craig Edwards
3:01
They have a ton of depth, but lack high-end guys. You can read Eric's report here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-54-prospects-new-york-yankees/
Johnny5Alive
3:02
Mets rotation - Seems Porcello is guaranteed and Matz-Wacha are battling.  But should that really be the case? Recent Matz has been just as good as Porcello, and better than Wacha.  I know in the grand scheme all will get starts, its more about the perception that Porcello deserves the spot
Craig Edwards
3:02
We also don't know what Porcello was told when he signed. It's a bad look to tell a guy he's a starter, please sign here, and then not do that.
Bungaree Chubbins
3:02
Who plays more center field in LA, Bellinger, Betts, or the rest of the dodgers utility guys
Craig Edwards
3:03
probably Bellinger I would think.
ricky nolasco maks more $ than u
3:03
Did Milwaukee get a steal with that Yelich contract?
Craig Edwards
3:03
I don't think so. I wrote a little about it here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-good-will-christian-yelich-be-in-his-t...
3:04
I think Milwaukee paid near market rates for Yelich's expected production from age-31 through age-36. Given those years are three years away, we would have expected a deeper discount. It's a good deal for Yelich.
3:05
That's going to do it for me today. Thanks for all the questions.
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