You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--4/16/2020
powered byJotCast
Craig Edwards
2:02
Let's get things rolling.
Today, I updated my local tv revenue estimates: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue...
Rob Manfred
2:03
Assuming a 100-game slate is played this season without fans in attendance, how should I let the drop in revenue affect the luxury tax thresholds in 2021 and beyond?
Craig Edwards
2:07
Beyond 2021 is a question for the next CBA, but in 2021, I don't think there is going to be any change. Obviously losing the gate is huge blow to revenue, 3 billion+, though half of that already goes back in the form of lower salaries for players. It's possible teams just spend less this offseason because of more uncertainty in terms of the number of people willing and able to attend games, but it shouldn't impact the competitive balance tax.
Childish Giambino
2:07
Is it acceptable to spit sunflower seeds at our desks upon returning to work if we are not allowed to attend baseball games this season?
Craig Edwards
2:07
Seems like a good way to get ants. I don't think you want ants.
Mr. Burrito
2:08
dumb question: who gets hurt more if the season is cancelled, a team on the cusp of winning it all, or a team that's trying to rebuild?
Craig Edwards
2:10
This is a question that seems to come up a lot. Everybody gets hurt a lot, no matter where you are on the spectrum. I think I've gone back and forth on what type of team gets hurt the most, but I am currently leaning toward the team currently built to win now because you just don't know how many opportunities a team will get at a championship run. This is less true if there is a partial season. In a partial season, the rebuilding team is hurt more.
Pat's Bat
2:10
What is the latest date MLB could start playing and still have a 2020 season of some sort?
Craig Edwards
2:11
I think they could do as late as mid-September if things haven't been improving. It would put the all Arizona plan into effect with a 40-game regular season and expanded playoffs.
cpebbles
2:12
This chat seems to have the momentum of a runaway train. Why are you so popular?
Craig Edwards
2:13
Some say it is the chat's integrity, others say it is my incorruptibility. Nobody seems to care about my stance on taxes, though I have no issue sticking it to those fat cats in charge.
Petty Padre
2:14
Will top free agents like Betts and Springer likely be offered less money this offseason? Fewer suitors at least?
Craig Edwards
2:16
I think the uncertainty seems likely to push things down a bit. Much depends on what the country looks like in December and how certain teams are to get their revenue flow back to where it was in 2019 and before. If they play half a season and it is a huge success, there might not be that much downturn, but if they don't play and COVID-19 shows no signs of being controlled, it is going to be a long winter for everyone.
Aloha Friday
2:17
if there is no 2020 season, did the mlb announce how contracts would be treated? do players get paid this year or have their contracts pushed back by one year?  wondering how it might impact the one year deals like ozuna and mega contracts like harper
Craig Edwards
2:18
If there is no 2020 season, players do not got paid there contract amounts, but do accrue service time to get to free agency. The players and owners agreed to a deal that gives the players $170 million to split up between them that they get to keep even if the season is cancelled. The players agreed not to sue for their full salaries.
Landon
2:18
What's your favorite team?
Craig Edwards
2:18
The Cardinals.
Jason N
2:19
If MLB starts with any of the spring training site/no-fans seasons but someone invents a cure and distancing rules go away mid-season, do they stick with spring training sites or start playing games in front of hometown fans?
Craig Edwards
2:20
If playing in front of fans at home is at all a safe option, then teams are going to want that. That's not very likely, though.
Curtis
2:21
If the entire season has to be cancelled, what would be some alternatives to keep the connection between the fans and the teams?  Have you heard any plans?   Certainly social distancing needs to be in play but I wonder what creative ideas could keep some sort of momentum into a possible 2021?
Craig Edwards
2:24
You are already seeing some of them with players playing MLB The Show against each other on twitch accounts. The offseason will have to start at some point, and teams seem likely to focus on building teams for 2021 in ways that create interest for the fans. Trades, free agency, etc. If there just ends up being no time for a season, but then there's a lift on staying home and group events, I'm sure teams will put greater emphasis on their warmup events and caravans to try and build interest into the next season.
You aren't asnwering any of my q
2:25
Do you know of a no-download, free, online, baseball sim game, kinda like OOTP?
Craig Edwards
2:25
I do not. sorry
Jeff
2:26
Hear me out: socially distanced, done-via-Zoom mascot races.
Craig Edwards
2:26
I'm not sure that would work, but I have heard you out.
Chucky
2:27
Is Harrison Bader, really just Orlando Mercado?
Craig Edwards
2:28
I expect Harrison Bader to be a better player than Oscar Mercado. The defense is much better and Bader's offensive ceiling is a bit higher.
Jim
2:28
Did Boras and those fancy agents let their players down? Isn't it part of their job to forecast what can go wrong? Couldn't the agreement, or a separate insurance policy, have said that if baseball in cancelled for any reason, Player X still gets a certain dollar amount? My kid's school trip got cancelled, and that travel company still got $500 for doing nothing, and that was a lousy $3,300 agreement. How could these mega deals not contemplate a cancellation?
Craig Edwards
2:31
It's a national emergency and most contracts have a force majeure clause that likely would have been in play. In terms of insurance, I don't know how much the insurance would be for $4 billion every year, but I'm guessing it would be pretty expensive with a very unlikely return in the case of a pandemic.
Childish Giambino
2:31
In the $170 million getting paid to the players no matter what that you mentioned above, is that being split between all players (majors and minors), or do the minor leaguers have some sort of safety net in place?
Craig Edwards
2:33
It is going to players on the 40-man roster plus non-roster invitees with MLB service time. The minor leaguers are not represented by the union (or any union) so they are out of luck. Teams have committed to paying them something close to what many would have gotten if they had been playing, though that's not much money to begin with.
Aloha Friday
2:33
really enjoyed players mic'd up this spring, hoping they continue that in regular season play
Craig Edwards
2:34
The players would probably be a little more reserved in games that matter, but it is something that would be nice to see, at least occasionally, during the season.
Jason
2:34
I've been in 3 different chats this week and I always end up just sitting here trying so hard to think up a question and I haven't thought of a single one all week. Sad times. Thank you for continuing to do these chats even when the content is sparse.
Craig Edwards
2:35
I appreciate your efforts. The chats are a little less lively the past few weeks than they have been in the season or even during the normal offseason, but I appreciated everyone who takes the time to come and interact.
Jim
2:36
There are a static number of wins and championships. If the pandemic costs a team wins or championships, anything short of a canceled season must benefit somebody? Who might be winners in all this?
Craig Edwards
2:38
Assuming some season gets played, the shorter the season, the more of a chance the middle-of-the-pack teams have at the postseason because the results are going to be more random. A full season sorts teams out by talent in a way a half season might not.
Childish Giambino
2:39
Any idea on how this will affect front offices moving forward?  You have to imagine there will be downsizing based on the length of the layoff.  If there is no baseball in 2020, what do front offices look like next year?
Craig Edwards
2:40
It depends on how much cutting teams do. There might be some downsizing, but it isn't really a significant effect on the bottom line. If teams want to save money, we'll likely see it in MLB payroll.
Load More Messages
Connecting…