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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--4/4/19
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Craig Edwards
2:34
Lot of distress about the Cubs at the moment. The Cubs are certainly investing in the team given the size of the payroll, but it is clear that the team had some potential holes that they failed to address in the offseason despite massive revenues. There will certainly be a lot of blame to go around if the Cubs fail to make the playoffs, but it does seem that the potential bad season could have been easily avoided with a relatively small increase in payroll over current levels.
andy
2:34
re Rosenthal's 63.00 ERA, i assume it's just crediting him with 1 out by default in order to avoid a divided-by-zero error. at any rate, that's what you get when you assign a guy 7 ER and 0.1 IP.
Alex
2:35
At what point do small sample sizes stop becoming small?
Craig Edwards
2:35
Never. Is that a trick question?
2:37
As for individual stats or performances, it varies a ton by stat. The easiest thing to do is look for a change in projected performance. Then you know that it is somewhat meaningful. You could also read this: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-long-needed-update-on-reliability/
Josh
2:37
Does the concept of holding prospects back for an extra year of control make as much sense when teams are buying out arb years anyway? I'm not sure how to think about it.
Craig Edwards
2:38
It absolutely does make sense from the team perspective because it matters in contract negotiations. Buying out free agent seasons is, or at least should be, expensive, so when a player can become a free agent is a major factor in those extensions.
glwilson
2:40
Is Marcell Ozuna a feature or a bug for STL? Seems like he's being passive aggressive against his team.
Craig Edwards
2:43
I don't know about passive-aggressive but the team certainly hasn't seemed pleased with him, though the problems seem to stem from a recurring shoulder issue that has hurt his throwing arm and sapped his power. He had a great run last year when he got a shot in the arm and maybe all he really needs is a shot in the arm, though the effects are only temporary and are lessened the more times it is done.
bruwin blue
2:43
Who is the most unconventional player you are bullish upon, contrary to general industry consensus?
Craig Edwards
2:44
I've always liked Maikel Franco. Guys with power who don't strike out a lot are fascinating to me, so it is nice to see him get off to a good start.
Greg
2:44
Are you panicing on any pitcher due to decreased velo?  (Sale, Carrasco, Darvish all come to mind)
Craig Edwards
2:46
We have to keep in mind that April velocity is often down from averages from the year before, so some of the lower levels are going to go up as the year goes on, but I think there is some concern with Sale and a lot with Darvish depending on how the blister issue is affecting him. We've seen Darvish overcome that same issue and have no problems, but it has caused bigger issues for others and could do the same for Darvish.
Yu'll Never Walk Alone
2:46
Please tell me Darvish will be OK this year and return to old form.  How do yu think he'll do in Atlanta today?  Time to worry?
Craig Edwards
2:47
No. Not well. Yes.
JoeyBoomBats
2:47
Everyone (including Jay Jaffe) doesn't seem alarmed about Sale's velo, claiming some kind of plan. I don't buy it. Watch his start in OAK. There was a lot of loud contact early in that start, before he abandoned the FB and went 80+% offspeed. If it was in the tank, he'd have reached for it when hitters were squaring him up. Pitch pace way down, too.
Craig Edwards
2:48
I'm concerned about it, though not really for that issue. It isn't really uncommon to just go with more offspeed stuff if the fastball isn't working. I think perhaps we underrate sometimes just how big of a difference a few MPH are for a pitcher. It's a really big deal.
Matt
2:49
Does Syndergaard ever find that next gear? He can look so dominant at times but just hasn't put it all together.
Craig Edwards
2:51
He was a four-win player in 150 innings last season. That's pretty well put together. If you're talking about a Cy Young season, he was pretty close back in 2016. Injuries have slowed him and his innings totals down, but if you are expecting more from him than what we've seen, prepare to be disappointed.
Time to blow it up?
2:51
If Darvish is cooked then the Cubs are done, right?
Craig Edwards
2:52
No. Dallas Keuchel is still a free agent, and teams get by with a bad fifth starter all the time. I think the Cubs are going to do about as well as Bryant can take them this year.
HappyFunBall
2:52
Double no-hitter alert in Queens update: busted
Craig Edwards
2:53
Double One-hitter alert still in play.
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
2:54
Victor Robles really likes hitting dingers off of Noah Syndergaard.
Craig Edwards
2:54
Who doesn't? Just most of us can't.
Oliver
2:55
Carlos Rodon, Corbin Burnes, Joe Musgrove and Matt Straham. Pick 2.
Craig Edwards
2:55
I'll take the first two.
Junior Soprano
2:55
Thoughts Pete Alonso, Craig?
Craig Edwards
2:56
He's a good hitter who will continue to hit well, though playing first base means he has to hit really well to be a star, which might not be reasonable.
BK
2:57
If Ozzie Albies signed the exact same deal as Roñald tomorrow, how should we feel about it? Still a ridiculous discount, right?
Craig Edwards
2:59
Yes, and more so because Albies is/was a year closer to free agency. To give up four or five years of free agency, the guarantee should be astronomical. Deals like that arguably shouldn't even be possible because the risk/reward for both sides shouldn't match up. That's whay we almost always see two years of FA with sometimes on, sometimes three, that far from FA.
Josh
3:00
What do you think the Yankees' front office should do with their current situation? Trade or hold & mend?
Craig Edwards
3:01
I think you have to wait and see on Andujar's injury. If it doesn't require surgery, you can probably get by, and you might be able to anyway if Didi progresses, so hold for now.
Caleb
3:03
As a Braves fan, I'm having trouble fine-tuning my strategy of who to cheer for when the Phils, Nats, and Mets play each other. Have any advice? Always cheer for worst record to win?
Craig Edwards
3:03
Extra innings.
IsBrittonInYet
3:03
Would it be worth it for the Jays to buy out all of Vlad Jr's arb years to get a single extra year of control at a reasonable rate? (Something like 7 yrs/$56M with a club option for $20M to buy out his first FA year)
Craig Edwards
3:05
That's light. Eloy just got $43 guaranteed, $60 million before buying out a free agent year. I think given his superior prospect status and potential earnings, not to mention he doesn't need the money, it would be hard for the two parties to come to terms.
Anonymous
3:05
I hate the argument "well he's set for life now anyway" when players leave money on the table. By that logic, every baseball player regardless of quality should just happily sign 15 year contacts for $50M because we're all human beings.
Craig Edwards
3:06
There are a lot of different ways to be set for life when you are a baseball player, and I agree, that shouldn't end any inquiries into what other options were available.
3:07
Going to have to call it a day today. Hope everyone had fun. I think a project I spent a lot of time on will be going up tomorrow, so be sure to check it out.
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