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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--4/9/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:02
Welcome all. Thanks for keeping these chats lively despite a lack of actual baseball.
2:03
Before we get going, here's a few things to think about in the form of articles I've written in the last week. Today, i discussed the need for testing in order to get baseball going on and the difficulties we are having. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/covid-19-roundup-testing-could-be-key-for-...
2:04
Yesterday, I asked for your sense of when the season will begin and what it will look like. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-optimistic-are-you-that-the-season-wil...
I also looked at reliever value in a shorter season.https://blogs.fangraphs.com/assessing-reliever-value-in-a-shorter-seas...
2:05
On Monday, I proposed a version of HORSE in the absence of actual baseball. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-should-broadcast-its-own-version-of-ho...
And last Friday, I talked about the difficulties of adjusting our lives in the pandemic. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/talking-about-sports-without-sports/
LioneeR
2:06
What type of team do you think benefits the most from a truncated season that includes scheduled double headers?  A deep team(Cardinals) or a stars and scrubs kind of team?
Craig Edwards
2:07
I think the team with depth is better if the schedule gets condensed. You are going to have to dig a bit deeper for pitchers in both starting and relief and your bench players will get a greater proportion of starts. This is particularly true if a bunch of games are played in the heat of Arizona.
2:08
If there's just a short season but a normal schedule, the equivalent stars and scrubs team is probably better off because they can play those stars more often.
Guest
2:08
Better pitcher: Lance Lynn or Lucas Giolito
Craig Edwards
2:10
Lynn was better last year and the projections say Giolito is slightly better on a rate basis with the two even overall. I'll go with Lynn in part because I've always been a big of his but also seems like a better option durability-wise.
John
2:11
Mize or Manning for 2021
Craig Edwards
2:12
If you think Mize will get more big league time this year, I could see you taking Mize because of that experience, but I think I'll still defer to Eric, who put Manning higher. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-detroit-tigers/
Andrew
2:15
So is the minor league season gonna get canceled?
Craig Edwards
2:17
It's not looking good for the minors right now. MLB can play games with empty seats and still make money. The minors can't, and even if they could, I'm not sure teams would be too willing to just send prospects all over the country if it isn't safe. There would be have to be a really great improvement to see the minors play this season. I hope they can play, but the odds are much less than whatever you think the odds of an MLB season.
Chris
2:17
If the season gets cancelled will the draft order remain the same?
Craig Edwards
2:17
I would guess, yes.
Gashouse Gorilla
2:18
What impact do you see on talent development, in the absence of both institutional training and competition?  Will this delay future call-ups just as a function of less time preparing, or do you see it also as a business point that goes into the next CBA as well?
Craig Edwards
2:22
It all depends on how the rest of the year goes. For top prospects, you can make up some of the lost development in the Arizona Fall League, if that still happens, but if there end up being a bunch of minor leaguers at the team complex for the summer, it's been the argument of MLB that players will develop better there. If there's a shortened season, it would make more sense to call up the most talented players who might or might not be ready because if they are ready and play well, it is more likely to make the difference in making the playoffs. I don't think it will be a big deal come next spring once things come back to normal, though the Kris Bryant grievance basically said you can manipulate service time, which is something that should get addressed in the next CBA after 2021.
John
2:22
How many years of baseball not being played do you think it would take for there to be a material loss of interest in the sport? Would a lost 2020 be a crushing blow? Three years? Ten years?
Craig Edwards
2:25
It depends what's there to replace it. There's going to be a bunch of kids who would've fallen in love with the game this year who now won't and you might not get them in future seasons. As for current fans losing interest, I think it would take at least two missed seasons. There would be a problem in getting many fans back just due to exposure. How many sports networks are going to get dropped if there's not sports for two years. How do you get the games back on television for enough people? These are all questions I hope we never have to answer.
Pumpsie Green
2:26
If there is no season, will Troy Tulowitzki's salary be the highest in MLB this year? Or would his buy-out be cut?
Craig Edwards
2:27
I think Jon Lester's buyout is like $10 million, which would be more than double Tulowitzki's.
Squirrelly Squirrelington III
2:27
If you were a GM right now, how would you be attempting to continue player development through the uncertainty and certain restrictions posed by the current environment?
Craig Edwards
2:29
I think maintaining contact with the players and keeping an open dialogue is important. The other thing is making Spring Training Redux as efficient and effective as possible without burning people out. The biggest thing is making sure the players are educated about how to stay safe amid the pandemic to make sure they do everything they can to avoid COVID-19.
Pumpsie Green
2:30
At my work, if someone tests positive they do a deep-clean and we're back at work in a few days. Wouldn't it be the same in baseball, if they did start up and someone tested positive?
Craig Edwards
2:31
That's why testing is so important. You need to be able to have quick, reliable tests so you understand the exposure. If a player tests positive and you know how long it will take for another person exposed to get a positive test if they have it, then you can keep testing and have that deep clean period, but you would still have to take at least a few days off.
Curtis
2:31
Has anyone done any research into double headers regarding specific player stats?  Have certain players performed well or poorly?  Are samples just too small?
Craig Edwards
2:32
I don't think there are enough doubleheaders to make too much of it, plus so many players get one half off anyway.
Pumpsie Green
2:32
I'm guessing AZ for a couple weeks of ST and the first 6-8 weeks of the season, then in ballparks with fans starting in July or August. Maybe 80-100 games?
Craig Edwards
2:32
I would take that today, if possible.
Pumpsie Green
2:33
My apologies - Tulo's $14 million for this year is what I was asking about.
Craig Edwards
2:34
I don't know how those salaries work out. Same thing with David Wright.
Jackelder
2:36
I'm hoping for a Top 50 SP year for Kenta Maeda.  Is this wishful thinking, or reasonably likely?
Craig Edwards
2:37
Last season, his 2.5 WAR ranked 51st among pitchers with at least 100 innings and he only made 26 starts with the rest of his appearances from the pen. If he starts the whole year, however long that is, I could easily seem him among the top 50 pitchers in the game.
Pumpsie Green
2:37
Which teams will have the most to spend in FA next year?
Craig Edwards
2:40
That depends on the owners and how much they are willing to do business as usual next year versus trying to take a step back if they lose a bunch of revenues this season. If there's no season, then the Red Sox efforts to get under the tax amount don't even count and they would still be a three-time payer in 2021.
Chris
2:41
Any word on if Aaron judge is healthy? I'm debating taking him in tonight's round of my fantasy leagues zoom in person draft
Craig Edwards
2:42
No idea. I doubt we'll really know until spring training starts again.
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