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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--4/9/2020
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Bored
2:42
Are the Cubs one of the biggest losers if this season is lost? They would be losing Chatwood and Quintana as well as down to a one year team option on Lester and Rizzo. They would also be facing their final year of control on Schwarber, Baez, and Bryant. Not only would they miss out one of their last two years with this core, but they would hold less leverage in any potential attempts to jumpstart a rebuild through trades.
Craig Edwards
2:42
"losing" Chatwood?
2:44
I do think that since the Cubs have a massive win-now window between 2020 and 2021 with potentially Rizzo, Schwarber, Baez, and Bryant all gone or at least older. Given that, I think a lost season would be more negative for the Cubs than most other teams. They also really need development at the minor league level to avoid having a huge dropoff and they might be losing a year of that, as well.
Rich
2:45
Hi Craig.  How many homers would you expect from C.J. Cron this year (based on 162 games)?  He hit 30 in 2018, and 25 last year, despite missing time with an injured thumb that affected his second-half numbers.  He's moving to a big park, but my understanding is that Comerica is actually better for right-handed pull-hitters than Target Field.  Thanks for chatting!
Craig Edwards
2:46
I'd take the under on 30, but 25 seems reasonable on a 162-game pace.
Rich
2:46
What kind of numbers do you expect from Chris Archer this year, now that he has abandoned his terrible Ray Searage sinker and gone back to his Tampa Bay pitch mix?  Second-half numbers last year (he junked the sinker in May) were pretty encouraging. . . .
Craig Edwards
2:48
I hope he does well. I've always liked him and he still struck out 27% of batters last year. I'm hopeful, but not overly optimistic.
Chris
2:48
Should the tigers lean into pitching and take Hancock and rocker/leiter the next two drafts so that they can run out mize, Manning, skubal, Hancock and rocker
Craig Edwards
2:48
That's a better question for Eric, but they shouldn't worry too much about their current pro mix and just take the best player available.
R.O.U.S.
2:50
Hard to see filling stadiums with fans as a good idea at any point this season (though I could be wrong). Do you think playing in empty stadiums would materially change the game? If so, how?
Craig Edwards
2:51
You do wonder a little about adrenaline and whether a pitcher might not be able to dial it up quite to the level they want when they want something extra. I think it is something that will take getting used to, but I don't think that would take a huge amount of time. I think where they play the games and the stadium might have a bigger effect if there are a bunch of games in Arizona.
Pumpsie Green
2:52
Do you like posting polls? How many teams would you like to have in MLB playoffs: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16.
Craig Edwards
2:52
In a typical year, I like the current setup but would be okay with two divisions per league and the same number of teams. As for this year, I wrote on that here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/modifying-the-2020-playoffs-to-account-for...
Aceman
2:54
Asked Dan this earlier,Solack or Arraez  this year and future?Said he likes both but would go Arraez slightly  cause of hit tool,how bout you?
Craig Edwards
2:56
They had similar seasons last year, but Arraez has better projections as a batter. If Solak can hit for a bit more power, he could eclipse Arraez though I don't have enough to say he will with enough confidence to go away from the projections.
Guest
2:56
Current odds of MLB in 2020?  Also, if MiLB is cancelled, chance of some type of deal that would permit guys like Wander Franco to play MLB without accruing MLB service time (i.e., $$).  If MiLB is cancelled, he would not likely play, anyway.
Craig Edwards
2:57
I think it is about 60/40 in favor of something. That deal wouldn't happen, though, even if there is no minor league season. If teams want those players in the majors, just give them the service time. I'm not sure why the union would give in on that.
Bored
2:58
Losing Chatwood in the sense that they just have more innings to replace between him, lester, and Quintana, but yes giving those innings to literally anybody else could viewed as "a win for the cubs" (sorry I had to)
Craig Edwards
2:59
I know, though unfortunately for the team, the Cubs don't have anybody to take those innings from Chatwood now.
Chris
3:00
If the milb season gets cancelled, how will that effect the draft? Meaning, teams models value players of certain ages at certain levels, does the lost development time mean teams will drop college hitters down on their board? Will injured players move up to their talent value?
Craig Edwards
3:03
With no guarantee of a season, we could see teams take more chances, but I'm sure others will want to take safer picks because they will not be able to spread around risk in the same way they would in a full draft. If a team wants a college hitter because they think they will move quickly through the system, they will still take that player even if they lose the rest of the season in development because they player is still probably a quick mover if they can get the season going next year.
Roy Hobbs
3:03
I am a glass half full guy, so I am going with the assumption of the season starting in May with empty stadiums.  I think it will be really interesting to see how teams react if they are playing more doubleheaders with less off days (not that they had many to begin with).  Will more teams use an opener to limit starters to 4 innings, for example, so they can start every 4th or 5th day?  Will starters be asked to go longer into games to save the bullpen?  Who knows.  I would love to see the projection of each team if the season started in May and each team had 7 starting pitchers.
Craig Edwards
3:05
They'll need to expand the rosters to make it possible, and I would imagine they will. I could definitely see more openers and piggybacking guys for 3-4 innings to get through 16 games in 14 days or whatever they might do.
Bring Back Jeff&Mookie&Baseball
3:05
Craig, have you played D&D? If so, what’s your go-to class?
Craig Edwards
3:05
I have not.
Magic Kingdome
3:05
If the season cannot start until September, would a World Cup style tournament with a group stage and then 16-team knockout rounds make sense?
Craig Edwards
3:06
Yes. Yes it would.
Pumpsie Green
3:06
If you could only pick one stat each for offense, defence and pitching, what are your favourite measures of prowess?
Craig Edwards
3:07
wRC+ for offense, FIP for pitching, and I probably use UZR the most for fielding but I think it is best to use an amalgam of defensive stats and seasons to get an accurate picture on defense.
Roy Hobbs
3:07
And thank you for having the chat.  It is still great to read fresh thoughts on the game.
Craig Edwards
3:08
Thank you. I really appreciate the opportunity to answer questions and I'm glad people are still interested in talking baseball in these uncertain times. With that, I will close things up. Stay safe.
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