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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--5/2/2019
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Craig Edwards
2:01
Let's get things rolling.
Desperate Royals Fan
2:01
Talk about Hunter Dozier and Adalberto Mondesi!
Craig Edwards
2:01
You just might want to pay close attention to FanGraphs later today for an article on one of those players.
2:02
Couple other quick plugs. Wrote today on attendance: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/april-attendance-was-a-mixed-bag-for-baseb... and yesterday on the plate discipline revolution, or something like that. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-hitters-are-fighting-back-against-risi...
Josh R
2:04
All the talk of the depth of the NL East and Central preseason has seen the NL West kicking their butts so far.  Real or mirage?
Craig Edwards
2:05
I think the East and the Central still have a bit more depth, but the Padres jumping up and doing well, the Diamondbacks being a bit of a surprise after losing so much in the offseason and the Giants not being awful means each division has at least four quality teams. Can't really read too much into the head to head at this point in the season, but the West has been a bit better than originally thought. the NL is just crazy right now.
yojiveself
2:07
How do you think the dodgers will handle Kershaw's workload this year?
Craig Edwards
2:08
I think they will treat him like a normal pitcher, which is to say, not vintage Kershaw. They'll look for signs of trouble into the fifth and sixth inning, and he'll probably be a six-inning guy most times out without trying to push him.
James M
2:08
Carter Kieboom has 3 hits, and 2 of those are homers.  if he bats .200 this year, will he end up with 40 hr's?
Craig Edwards
2:09
if he bats .200 this year, he might not get a chance to hit even two more homers. He's looked a bit overmatched at the plate and in the field. He's still a good young prospect, but the Nationals really need Turner back...and Rendon.
here goes nothing
2:10
Is Graham Canning going to stick? It doesn't seem like the Angels have better options, and as a four pitch college arm he seems like the type that could succeed quickly.
Craig Edwards
2:11
I think Griffin Canning has a good shot at staying. He should be pretty close to league average right now and that fits in most rotations, let alone the Angels.
Ralph Rowdie
2:13
Who are the one pitcher and one hitter you are most worried about?
Craig Edwards
2:15
I'll say Joey Votto for hitter and not quite sure on pitcher. Guys like Nola and Sale have done better of late so I'm not as worried as before. Might have said Kluber before yesterday, but that one is a bit moot with him out for a few months.
JV
2:16
McHugh's last few starts have me a bit concerned.  What do you see him doing the rest of the season?
Craig Edwards
2:17
He's had a weird few starts giving up homers and going from either no strikeouts or a bunch against Cleveland. This is probably just a three-game blip, but it isn't like his first four starts when he was giving up any runs were a fair representation of his talent, either. He's decent, but he's not much more than that.
resumeman
2:18
How long has this service time manipulation been a thing? The first one  I remember was Bryant in '15, but did it have any relevance before that?
Craig Edwards
2:19
Bryant is the guy who made it famous because he was so obviously ready. I think it was on the periphery like it might have been discussed when Heyward was up on Opening Day and right around the time Evan Longoria was signing his first contract extension, but it didn't get talked about as much. The CBA in general wasn't as big of a deal because players were doing a lot better, then.
AF
2:20
Is simply swinging more a good way to counteract the increase in strikeouts (eg. - Baez, Mondesi)?
Craig Edwards
2:21
You have to be able to have an incredibly quick bat and hit for a lot of power when you do swing to make it work. It didn't work for Baez until last season. Baez is good not because he swings wildly at pitches out of the zone. He's good because a lot of those big swings happen on balls in the zone and he hits them hard. There are way too many pitches out of the strike zone to make it a successful strategy for 99% of players.
Yankees' Injured List
2:22
Is Dan Vogelbach for real?
Craig Edwards
2:24
Dan Vogelbach is big. Real? Not quite sure. He's not going to keep up a .400+ ISO. The projections already say a 130 wRC+ so that's real in terms of being an above-average player.
Derek
2:24
In light of Kluber's injury and Ramirez's extended struggles, are the Twins the favorite to win the AL Central now?
Craig Edwards
2:26
Cleveland is still the favorite. If Kluber were out for they year or Ramirez's struggles continued all year long, it would be really close. Despite everything that's gone on, the Twins are still only a couple games ahead right now. One more bad thing or a continuation of the above bad things and it is pretty much even/slight Twins lean.
Thor
2:26
If you're trying to evaluate whether a bad start is legit or something the player will bounce back from, what's your method for doing so?
Craig Edwards
2:28
I look at velocity, strikeouts, walks at first for pitchers and then see if there is anything behind those numbers. For hitters, I'm more likely to just trust the track record for at least half a season, see if it just BABIP or a few homers getting turned into outs. This early in the season, a few home runs can make a pretty big difference in a player's line.
dilbert
2:28
Am I crazy or has this Cardinals team enjoyed some good luck. Lots of runs scored on wild pitches and passed balls...weird defense issues last night (Robles and Kieboom with big misplays)
Craig Edwards
2:30
I think any team that is 20-10 has probably had its share of good bounces. Overall, I think the Cardinals offense has gotten pretty close to what it has deserved. If you want to look at luck, the pitching staff hasn't been punished enough for all the homers they are giving up. The homers could be bad luck with the lack of runs scoring overall good luck, but something has to give there.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:31
Appreciated the attendance article. Have you checked for people substituting towards minor league games? If you just want a day at the ballpark, the value is so much better. And Kiley and Eric make it easy to identify the names worth knowing!
Craig Edwards
2:32
I haven't, and you are certainly right on the value aspect. The internet has made it much easier to follow minor leaguers, though much of that excitement has to do with how those players will help the team's big league club.
Ryan
2:33
As a Cubs fan, I don't want Addison Russell on the team. However, stashing him in the minors doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. IMO, paying him millions to play in the minors isn't morally better than paying him millions to play in the majors, and he would be a much better option in the majors than Zagunis.
Craig Edwards
2:35
The very cynical view is that the Cubs save $200,000 by keeping him in the minors for another week. The team and player structured his contract so that he could make back what he was going to miss due to his suspension. The Cubs created this problem when they chose baseball concerns about their SS/2B situation last winter. Now that the baseball concerns are less of an issue for the team, they don't know what to do.
Dan
2:35
I can't seem to locate plate discipline numbers by team / by season.  What am I doing wrong?  After reading the Dejong article I wanted to check in on the Cardinals team-wide to see if Jeff Albert has made a difference that shows up in those numbers.
Craig Edwards
2:36
While I would caution against looking at things too closely right now given we are just a month in and the players aren't the same, you can find this year's information here and choose by year. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0...
Dan
2:37
Looks like Shildt is adopting LaRussa's get-away-day lineups.  What do you think of that approach to managing off days?
Craig Edwards
2:38
I think that starters need as many off days as they can get and the day game after a night game is a pretty good time to do it. It helps the Cardinals that they have decent options to go with. Only Yairo wouldn't start on at least a handful of teams.
2:39
and here's that Hunter Dozier post everyone has been clamoring for. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-best-hitter-youve-never-heard-of/
Alex
2:39
Why does the projected wins amount differ when you go from the projected standings tab to the playoff odds tab (only a slight difference but you'd figure they'd be the same?)
Craig Edwards
2:41
playoff odds factor schedule into them. The projected standings tab gives you the best idea of true talent while the playoff odds should do a better job projecting the rest of the season because teams can play very different schedules. The ROS schedule is in the playoff odds so you can compare.
Derek
2:41
Is Yandy Diaz for real?
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