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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--5/2/2019
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Craig Edwards
2:43
Why not? Even last season in limited playing time he put up a 115 wRC+. That was on the strength of a high BABIP, but it you can turn the hard contact in the air, this result was always possible. I don't know that he'll hit 30 homers, but 20 seems realistic and an ovrall above-average player.
Pros vs. O's
2:44
Is Jorge Polanco legit? His exit velocity, hard hit rate, and launch angle are all up a good bit from prior years.
Craig Edwards
2:46
I don't think he can keep up both the power and the average. With his hot start, he's already projected to be basically a four-win player. That seems pretty legit, though it does mean falling pretty far off his current pace.
Howard K Stern
2:46
is he shine starting to wear off with Alex Cora?  He inherited a great team last year but this year - oofah
Craig Edwards
2:47
The guy who managed the World Series winner without much of a bullpen? Wait for the World Series hangover to wear off a bit more.
Luke Voit
2:47
I am not a fluke!
Craig Edwards
2:47
That certainly seems to be the case.
James M
2:47
its silly to even bring up but Vladito is batting .167/.286  Was Toronto kinda right about him not being ready?
Craig Edwards
2:48
Maybe if they brought him up last season, he would have been more ready right now. It is silly to bring up after 21 plate appearances.
Appa Yip Yip
2:48
Do you know what the correlation between a point of BABIP and a point of AVG is? IE/ Cavan Biggio has an Avg. of .361 at AAA but his BABIP is .404, if the BABIP were 100 points lower, how much would the average drop approximately? Point for point, half as much? Too squishy to really tell? I imagine teams have ways of approximating this just haven't been able to find anything public. Thanks!
Craig Edwards
2:50
It depends on strikeout and homers so there isn't a single number for anybody. The fewer strikeouts and homers, the more a rise or dip in BABIP is going to affect the average. At least I think that's how it should work.
Connie Mack & Cheese
2:50
Thoughts on how the Cards and Cubs will match up this weekend and moving forward this season?  Both playing very well recently.
Craig Edwards
2:53
It should make for a very good series. No Mikolas and Hudson for the Cardinals with no Lester or Hamels for Cubs but still leaves some good pitching matchups with both teams' offenses looking like they can score a bunch. Should be close the rest of the season.
Something
2:53
Did you just have an article published during your chat?? Well done.
Craig Edwards
2:54
It was edited and published during the chat thanks to the work of Meg Rowley. I had little to do with it going up now.
Daro
2:54
Kyle Tucker looks more like a trade candidate than a possible callup. What can Hou get for him?
Craig Edwards
2:55
Whatever they want assuming he starts hitting sometime soon. Of course, then Houston might want him for themselves.
Upset Dodger Fan
2:56
What statistic(s) can I best employ to evidence the supreme un-clutch-ness I see from Pedro Baez game to game? I need it for an open letter I'm going to write to Dave Roberts.
Craig Edwards
2:56
Can you make him completely forget the 2016 and 2018 seasons? That would probably do it.
HappyFunBall
2:57
As a Nats fan, I can see a scenario where the hitters get healthy and start producing better. But that bullpen is so, so very bad. It feels like .500 is baked into their DNA
Craig Edwards
3:00
It's not as bad as it has looked with a better FIP than ERA. Some of it is just bad luck, plus with the Nats starters, fewer innings are needed. The bullpen can't get any worse and the offense should get a lot better with health. Of course, whatever talent lead they had on the rest of the division has been evaporated with the poor early start so they need to play a lot better to catch up.
Ed Craigwards
3:00
This early in the season, I only pay attention for "Past Calendar Year" splits to keep from getting too caught up. Do you do anything similar, or is last year too long ago?
Craig Edwards
3:01
Past calendar year is a good one. This early, you could just include 2018 if you wanted to. If you don't want to get too caught up just look up last year's April numbers and compare them to the end of the season.
Not
3:02
you a joey gallo believer? he's just destroying the baseball and hitting it harder than anyone else in the league, and he's shown the ability to make adjustments all the way up through the system.
Craig Edwards
3:03
I believe in the power about 85% and the average about 20%. Both will come down with average coming down a lot, but he'll still be a good offensive player and a 140 wRC+ at the end of the year seems reasonable.
Meat the Mets
3:04
Noah Syndergaard intentionally slowed down his breaking pitches by about 5mph for today's start and dominated in a shut out.  DeGrom is struggling at times with a slider he's almost throwing 95 mph.  Is the Warthen slider actually any good?
Craig Edwards
3:04
I would present all the years prior to this one as evidence that yes, it is good.
Jimmy
3:04
In what season do we see robot strike zone calls, with umps just sharing the machine generated outcome with us? And what do we do when we find out Mike Trout is a robot and can talk with the machines?
Craig Edwards
3:05
The former maybe in 10-15 years. With the latter, we can start to make more sense of the universe.
That's going to do it for today. Thanks for all the questions.
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