You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--5/28/2020
powered byJotCast
Craig Edwards
2:01
Hope everyone is doing well.
2:02
Today, I discussed the financial aspect of the owners' latest (only) proposal thus far. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/examining-the-economics-of-mlbs-latest-pro...
Yesterday, I talked about MLB's efforts to wage a PR battle against the players. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlbs-public-fight-with-players-a-timeline/
2:03
On Monday, I had a nice with my family.
J
2:03
Is there a good reason, for business purposes, why owners are so leveraged?
Craig Edwards
2:05
Baseball makes a ton of money and that allows them to take on a lot of debt for things they might not want to spend their own cash on. They get to keep their other money in their own investments or spend it and let the baseball money pay down everything else. They can take on a lot of debt because baseball is a very big, very good business. Banks like that.
Ribby
2:06
Think there is any expansion of the 40-man roster over the next few years with many minor league players losing a year of development? From an org standpoint it's gotta be a lot more difficult to make 40-man decisions with a missed season
Craig Edwards
2:09
I would definitely be in favor of a bigger roster. You would need/want to move up rule 5 eligibility by a year to make it not even more meaningless than it is at the moment, but as the game has gotten younger, it makes more sense to remove a barrier for younger players to make the majors.
Roger
2:10
In the event they can't come to an agreement are there any rumors of an independent league scooping up remaining FA and freshly cut minor leaguers to try to capitalize on the country's hunger for baseball? Would need a TV deal with no fans though to bring in revenue
Craig Edwards
2:11
I think in non-pandemic times, that could possibly work, but any independent league right now would need to function solely based on tv revenues and that's going to be hard, particularly when trying to scale up potential safety concerns among a big group of teams.
J
2:13
Beyond the BAMTech sale and overall profits, shouldn’t the players also point out that MLB has collected hundreds of millions in overage taxes from July 2 and amateur draft signings that could theoretically be a part of a rainy day fund?
Craig Edwards
2:15
Most of that is from several years ago and it comes from the teams themselves, but there's a lot of different ways MLB has made more money over the years that players can point to so that you don't even need to get that far.
Indiana
2:15
Regardless if they come to terms to play games a strike has got to be likely at this point, right? Free agency the last few years was already a dumpster fire. How are the players going to be able to gain any leverage now within this economic climate?
Craig Edwards
2:17
The leverage they will have then is the same leverage they have now except much greater. It is much better financially for owners to have baseball played than to not have it played. If attendance only averages 20k per game in 2021 and beyond, will they lose revenue? Of course, but they already have FOX locked up beyond 2021 and they'll have ESPN and TBS soon enough and most of the local tv deals are locked in already as well. They need to play the games to make that money.
daymans
2:18
Baseball should eliminate outfield fences and all home runs are now inside the park home runs - just hit it so far that you have time to run the bases.
Craig Edwards
2:19
and every bench player gets to sit in the outfield bleachers and throw the ball back in if it gets hit too far. This is too dangerous to actually do because you can't have players running around in seats, but definitely something I'd watch and fun to consider.
SeVaun
2:20
Does this situation make it even more likely for young kids to steer towards basketball/football over baseball? How does the game expect to get a Kyler Murray?
Craig Edwards
2:23
I'm not sure the game expects to get a Kyler Murray. The bigger problem is just generally getting kids to play and become fans of the game. Changes to the draft could certainly help in terms of bonuses, but I'm not 100% that would have mattered for Murray. Was there an amount to get him not to play that last season of college football? Maybe, but it might not have actually been a good decision to pay him that much given other alternatives. Once he played that last year of football, a chance at getting to the big leagues in baseball player is never going to beat being a starting QB in the NFL on day 1.
DJ
2:23
Are you optimistic the 2020 major league baseball season will still occur in some form?
Craig Edwards
2:24
I am still optimistic. I think the union has shown it is much stronger than owners believed it to be. Rob Manfred is going to have to make concessions to individual owners and try to get them all in line because the losses if they don't play are so much bigger than the potential losses if they do.
Tom
2:25
I am sure the owners have better lawyers than me...but would a  promise players to accept less money even be enforceable? It seems like a new promise that is not backed by consideration. Glancing over the uniform player contract it seems like the national-emergency clause only allows the team to suspend the contract if the national emergency prevents games from being played. I am sure I am missing something but can't figure out what?
Craig Edwards
2:27
If the alternative is now suspension of the contract and no pay, it seems a compromise to get some pay in exchange for playing some games does constitute consideration, unless I'm missing the point of the question. The parties already reached a contract agreement in March during the emergency and now they are arguing over that contract and whether reduced pay is allowable/necessary under that contract.
Artie
2:27
Think MLB goes the pumping in sound route if they play? Will they adjust for day of the week, opponent, location? If it's just balls to the wall does that elevate The Trop if they just play 2008 WS crowd noise?
Craig Edwards
2:28
I would be in favor of a few different audio options, but I don't love the idea of pumping in sound at the stadium. Either go with natural noise or pump in noise over the broadcast. In-stadium extra noise seems a bit clunky.
DJ
2:29
On a 1-10 scale, how would you rate your current video conferencing room background (and why)?
Craig Edwards
2:29
I don't really have a lot of video conferences so pretty low, I think. Behind me right now is a window to the backyard. If i turned it around to have the natural light in front of me, the background would be a very messy desk.
Tim
2:30
Odds MLB still exists in something close to its current form in 2030? Worried COVID fallout, labor unrest, declining popularity, and constricted draft/minors could kill it
Craig Edwards
2:30
Pretty good. 2030 isn't that far that away and the sport is still pretty popular.
GoNats
2:30
When do you think a deal will be agreed to and when will the season start?
Craig Edwards
2:31
A week from today? with a start in early July just like everybody wants.
Mike
2:31
Why is the League so resistant to turn over its financial records as Scherzer cited? Doesn't the Union have a right to inspection provided by the CBA as it relates to revenue sharing?
Craig Edwards
2:32
They get some financial information but not everything. Costs are a pretty big unknown and with so much revenue baseball-related but as direct, there's just a lot of disagreement on what even counts.
2:33
The owners are resistant because like most people, they like privacy, and because it would not make them look good.
Red
2:33
Are any TV contracts up soon? Can we quantify the lost value of a 2020 season failing to occur re: the next round of negotiations?
Craig Edwards
2:34
That's a good question. FOX has already re-upped but might ask for something to make up for a lost season (outside of just not paying, which they probably will). ESPN and TBS might ask for slight discounts on the next deal or some other favorable terms as they are negotiating.
Chris
2:35
Why don't national teams list a position player at pitcher to leadoff games when they are the away team?
Craig Edwards
2:36
it is better to use bench players in highly leveraged important spots and it might end up wasting a roster spot most of the time. You want the leadoff hitter to be very good and this would probably not make that possible.
Big Joey
2:37
In your opinion (if they end up having a "season" in 2020 and the pay scale thing happens), if a player like a Blake Snell, Bryce Harper or Gerrit Cole doesn't want to to play for "less money", will they just be able to sit out the season and not get paid? And then resume their normal contract in 2021? Will they be shunned by the home town fans?
Craig Edwards
2:38
I believe Rob Manfred has said no player would be punished for sitting out. As for hometown fans, yes, I'm sure some would be upset.
Mad A's fan
2:39
The A's are rightfully so taking a beating for their decision to not pay minor league players. But, before this decision they were unable/unwilling to make their rent payment? Is there a real chance they are close to insolvent or at the very least illiquid? Or is this just them putting the long term financial viability of the franchise ahead of these players' current financial viability?
Load More Messages
Connecting…