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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--6/11/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:01
Let's get things rolling.
2:02
First, let me say that while I'm happy to take draft questions, you should definitely read what Eric Longenhagen had to say about last night. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-recap/
There's also a widget in that piece that can you send you to all of our draft coverage this year.
2:03
As for what I've been up to, here's my piece on the player proposal that MLB hasn't responded to yet. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/players-take-big-step-toward-compromise-wi...
2:04
And here's a couple pieces on the MLB offer. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-owners-latest-offer-even-worse-than-th...
This one looks at individual team gains and losses. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-look-at-the-gains-and-losses-by-team-of-...
Dave
2:04
I heard Steve Phillips say on MLB radio this morning that the Braves lost 32 million last year.  I remember a story you wrote that said they had a 150 million dollar profit the last two years.  Who is correct?
Craig Edwards
2:10
I guess we both are. The Braves have made $150 million over the last two seasons when you consider how much cash they received compared to their revenue. The 32 million loss figure comes from depreciation as baseball teams can depreciate the purchase price of the club over the next 15 years. If you want to know how much a team made compared to what they spent, which is the information I would want to know, use the $150 M figure (54 M in 2019, 94 M in 2018).
Here's the piece I wrote on it and it has a link to the Braves financial disclosures that you can take a look for yourself. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/braves-print-money-for-liberty-media/
Cleveland Spiders
2:11
Manfred mentioned something about a March proposal for a season start date, as well as some other things. Mind catching those who have tuned out of the labor negotiations up to speed?
Craig Edwards
2:14
Back in March, the players and owners agreed to a deal on the potential resumption of the season. Under that agreement the players would be paid pro-rata pay and MLB would provide the schedule for the season. The owners have since tried to renegotiate that deal asking the players to take less pay. Those negotiations are still ongoing, though Manfred and MLB believe that even without a new deal, they can impose a roughly 50-game schedule with pro-rated salaries. If true, they could do this for 60, 70, or 80 games as well.
2:15
Pumpsie Green
2:16
Any initial reports on viewing numbers for round one of the draft last night, either on Fangraphs or elsewhere? Wondering if people are starved for any kind of live sports coverage or if they are completely engulfed in their streaming service.
Craig Edwards
2:17
I haven't seen them, yet. Guessing they will be released this afternoon at some point.
Dave
2:17
I really hate the idea of 16 teams making the playoffs the next two years.  Once that happens what are the chances the number of teams ever decrease?
Craig Edwards
2:18
It will definitely have to be renegotiated. I like the idea of more playoff teams in a short season because there's more randomness to the season this year and I wouldn't want good teams to miss out on the playoffs just because they had a small run of bad luck.
2:20
As for future years, I like the current format. I really like the winner take all wild card game. It's a great start to the playoffs. I wouldn't mind seeing the leagues go back to two divisions with five teams per league in the playoffs, but once the league expands and we likely go to four divisions, expanding the playoffs is inevitable.
Way back in March, I proposed a round-robin at the end of the season I thought would be fun for this year.
2:21
My concern with expanded playoffs is devaluing the regular season.
thelaundry
2:22
Before the current negotiations about the 2020 season, I had little hope that the players/MLBPA would be able to successfully take on the owners in the next CBA. Over the last 20-25 years, the owners have made more & more and the players have gotten less and less. Does the current situation make you think the players will be more unified, vocal and resolute in the next negotiation with management?
Craig Edwards
2:24
They certainly seem much more unified than I've seen in recent years. The owners have helped greatly in that situation by offering deals that aren't really appetizing at all.  I don't think we really saw a huge shift in player share until the last half decade or so. But the players have definitely noticed and want to do something about it.
who me
2:26
Is Meyer a 45+ FV due to relief risk caused by a still to be developed 3rd pitch? His first two, slider and fastball, look pretty good.
Craig Edwards
2:26
This is part of Eric's capsule on Meyer:
Meyer's stuff and command has backed up later in starts and he doesn't have a fully formed starter's mix yet, but he's arguably the best athlete among college starters in this class.
2:27
Keep in mind a 50 means basically one of the top 125 prospects in the game.
Guest
2:27
Thoughts on the Boston first rounder pick?
Craig Edwards
2:29
It depends on what happens with the rest of the draft. They obviously didn't take the best player available so they need to make up for that with higher-money players on later picks. It's a strategy that can work, but it has to make sense.
2:30
I wrote a piece on how teams did last year. looking for it now.
Matt
2:32
As a Vandy fan, I can't wait to see Austin Martin in the bigs. What percentage of his agreed-upon salary will the Blue Jays attempt to stiff him of in 2022?
Craig Edwards
2:32
He'll still be getting bonus money in 2022 since players only receive 100k this season.
Dave
2:33
I understand the owners fears about playing into November.  However, the virus has shut down Hollywood so there won't be any original programming on the networks.  The baseball playoffs could be in prime time the entire month of November.  Seems like that would be a huge thing for baseball.
Craig Edwards
2:33
That's one thing I don't entirely understand. MLB is saying the networks prefer to keep the schedule the same, but if the NBA and NHL are finishing up in early October, it would seem to make sense to push it back a little.
2:35
If owners are worried about losing that postseason money altogether, then it would make sense to keep things on schedule, but if the players are saying we want to play in November, saying they are worried about player safety makes little sense.
Steven
2:35
Maybe weather is the worry about pushing it back?
Craig Edwards
2:36
I think there is something to this, but that's all the more reason to negotiate a neutral site postseason location, maybe even one that is allowing fans.
Grandpaboy
2:37
I’m super-bummed that the Cubs missed out on Abel. Sell me on Ed Howard:
Craig Edwards
2:38
They are rated very close together, so going with the position player who can stick at shortstop seems like a much more sure thing. A lot can happen in the next 3-5 years as these guys get close to the majors, but the odds of Howard becoming something in the majors is probably a bit better than Abel.
Michael
2:39
I already asked Dan, so ignore if you want....but is it possible existing minor league players get more coaching/attention, given the shorter draft, and that helps them in a way?
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