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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--6/11/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:40
In theory, fewer minor leaguers would mean more individual instruction, but fewer minor league teams might just mean more players playing at a complex not actually getting more individualized instruction.
Max Scherzer
2:40
Am I wrong to demand that the owners open their books to public scrutiny before the players should consider giving up another penny?
Craig Edwards
2:41
If you want to argue that the players need to renegotiate their salaries as part of a good faith discussion on economic feasibility, it would seem open records would be very necessary to make that determination. Without it, a good faith discussion isn't really possible.
Chris
2:42
Did Blue Jays have the draft of the night landing Martin? No way he should have landed there
Craig Edwards
2:43
I think they did well to get the player many considered the best or second best prospect in the draft at five.
2:44
If you compare rankings on the BOARD to pick numbers, a lot of teams did well as others opted for a different strategy. We'll have to see how that plays out today. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?s...
Pumpsie Green
2:44
Awesome work on cutting through the rhetoric to get to the true crux of negotiations! In the end, all either side really cares about is the money. It seems they're $200-300 million apart, correct? Lots of ways to bridge that gap, too.
Craig Edwards
2:44
2:46
Expanded tv rights is big. No grievance is big. For some teams, more games is actually better. And in terms of PR, more games looks a lot better.
mcgiveittome
2:46
As a Twins fan I like the idea of drafting a college bat. With, at best, limited activities this season and almost assuredly no season in 2022 it seems like developing pitchers from this and next year's draft will be even more difficult than it already is, no?
Craig Edwards
2:49
That's hard to say. One of the most important thing for developing as a hitter is to continually increase your competition level. It's obviously good for pitchers to face good competition, but there are some things in terms delivery that don't require the same level of games. I'm not sure there's a correct answer, but I'm not sure I see any reason to deviate from taking the best player possible regardless of position.
Alex Crisafulli
2:49
They're different players, at different stages of their career, different injury history, etc., but with Jack Flaherty being very public in his displeasure with MLB owners, should Cardinals fans be worried he'll get Pham'd?
Craig Edwards
2:51
I don't think so. There's a worry that he might leave in free agency, but that's still four years away. If Flaherty is still pitching well over the next three seasons and the Cardinals are winning, I don't see a trade for dimes on the dollar happening.
Pumpsie Green
2:52
The DeWitt family seems to have done alright investing in baseball over the past 70 years or so, but maybe my definition of 'very profitable' is different from theirs. What else could we suggest they get into that would rise to their standard of profitability? Drugs and casinos come to mind, although - cartels and the mafia. Maybe revive the ivory trade? Really, though, find something other than baseball, please. There are plenty of other places to invest.
Craig Edwards
2:53
Rob Mains had a piece in Baseball Pro saying essentially he would be hauled off to prison if he promised the type of return Dewitt has received from the Cardinals.
2:54
Even ignoring franchise value, it's not like the Cardinals aren't doing extremely well. The big problem with claims like these is that they are made without any evidence. If you want me to believe you, back it up with evidence.
and that's the point John Fleming makes here: https://stlbullpen.com/2020/06/09/if-bill-dewitt-jr-isnt-lying-to-you-...
Steven
2:56
How do you view single season records if there was a 50 game season?
Craig Edwards
2:57
I just wouldn't consider them. We are talking about 200 PA or so for batters and maybe 60 innings for starters. It's going to be fun to look at some of these stats, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to pretend like it means the same thing as a standard full season.
Bob
2:58
Well, I lost my job permanently in baseball over this, so I’ve grown very indifferent and very jilted either way. Don’t work in what you grew up loving, kids
Craig Edwards
3:00
I'm sorry to hear that. I would still encourage people to follow their dreams. You might be more likely to end in heartbreak, but you'll also pursue what you are doing with more passion than if you took a safe route. Not getting to do what you've dreamed of is an awful feeling, but wondering whether you could have if you had just tried will linger on much longer.
Dave
3:01
I know you're very much pro-player.  But if I'm the owners I make an offer for a 10% cut on pro-rated salaries (5% total salary for year) with 75% to start and 15% after WS is played and tell the players to take it or leave it.  There is a reason that there March agreement asked for negotiations if fans were not allowed in the stands and I can't see any Labor judge in the USA siding with the players on any kind of grievance.
Craig Edwards
3:08
Let's assume over 76 games. For the regular season, you are paying players $1.435 M with $287 M coming in the postseason. In a 54-game set, players receive $1.359 M. Is is worth $66 M more in guarantees to play 22 more games at an 88% pay cut from pro-rated pay? The $287 million is more than the expanded postseason tv rights you have to give away to make a deal. Maybe you don't win a grievance, but it's possible the grievance centers more on the good faith part of the whole negotiations than on the final offer. I'm just not sure that is going to be enough incentive not to just have MLB say play 50 games or so.
Patrick
3:10
Does fangraphs have the team stats against RvL and LVR?
Craig Edwards
3:10
Yes. they are on the splits leaderboards. Here's team RvL. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=1,4&spl...
Patrick
3:11
Do you have team stats for KBO.  Teams batting avg.  RvL, LvR, LvL, and RvR
Craig Edwards
3:11
For that, we do not. Here's our KBO Leaderboard page: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/international
Lorenzo
3:12
Will the fact that SP would only get about 10 starts mean that we are more likely to see closers win the Cy Young awards this season?
Craig Edwards
3:12
Maybe. Is 60 innings versus 30 innings in a shortened season different from 180 innings versus 60 innings. The gap closes slightly, though I think I would still lean toward the starter.
Dave
3:13
Why do you think that no one else in the media questions the owners over their finances.  They just say they are going to lose money and no challenges them on it.
Craig Edwards
3:15
There's lot of different ways to "lose" money and certainly owners are going to receive a lot less in revenue this year than in years' past and given the costs many teams have, their costs will exceed their revenues, but that doesn't mean you can't look at the offers being made with skepticism and when there is a coordinated PR effort for owner sympathy, it's fair to look at what is driving that as well.
Quarantino Martinez
3:15
How does the NBA have a plan to reopen before MLB?! Those players have to sweat all over each other, play indoors, touch the same ball... Ugh!
Craig Edwards
3:16
They have a plan to reopen, but they aren't actually starting until the end of July. MLB could still very well beat them. It's also difficult to compare the two. If this happened in the middle of August and most of the baseball season had already been played, finishing the season would be a lot easier to figure out.
That doesn't excuse all the dragging of the feet by the owners, but they are different situations.
Steven
3:16
What is your take on some states, like Texas, seeming to encourage partial fans in stands, and others, like California, forbidding them?
Craig Edwards
3:17
It doesn't seem like the greatest idea to me to let fans back in. I'm sure there are some safety measures that could be taken to let some fans in, but then you have to enforce mask wearing, which is absolutely necessary, and things get a little difficult.
henry
3:18
What are the odds you think the playoffs are completed this season? If it's over 25%, that makes the MLB owners' most recent offer the best of their offers (or floated offers) so far. Something you didn't seem to want to acknowledge.
Craig Edwards
3:21
I think you still have to separate guaranteed money from contingent money when you consider what offer is better. If the odds of completing the playoffs is 75%, then the monetary value of the latest offer might be $100 million higher than the first offer (which was a really bad offer), but how much risk should you take on when you have very limited opportunities to make money in your career. Might the greater guarantee still be better?
3:22
In free agency, some players might prefer a 2/20 deal rather than a 1/13. Are the odds good that they'll earn more  than 7 if they hit free agency again? Probably, but many might prefer not to take that risk if they don't have to.
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