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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--6/25/2020
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Dave C
2:41
What r the chances an expanded post season gets agreed to next month if the owners throw in 50+ mill guaranteed? Or us that likelier to wait for the next CBA?
Craig Edwards
2:43
I'm not sure on the chances, but MLB offered $58 M for two years of expanded postseason and giving up a grievance. That clearly wasn't enough. If it is for this season only, I think that $50 M amount might be enough, though with teams all of a sudden talking about fans in the stands, players might already be thinking they will get some postseason shares that seemed impossible a week ago (and might still be impossible).
Los Lonely Boys
2:44
Not your area but is Rotographs actually back now?! More articles this week than the previous couple combined, seemed like we missed out on a ton of player profiles but seems like those guys are back at it now!
Craig Edwards
2:44
I'm not sure how much there was to write about over the last month or so, but if there's a bunch of stuff up there now, it's because the season is coming, we hope.
Dave C
2:45
Teams will be less likely to deal a high end prospect for a guy like Lindor who is a FA after next year right? Who knows what the season will look like in 21
Craig Edwards
2:47
It will be really interesting to see how teams look at budgeting over the next year. If teams are looking at reducing payroll, there might be some good deals out there without giving up a bunch of prospects. That might not be true for a player like Lindor, but if you could get someone close to his level without the prospects because you were willing to take on money, that might be a better option.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:47
The thought occurs that a shortened season means the probabilities of a TEAM CHAOS standings situation come playoff time increases significantly. Will FanGraphs be investigating/simulating?
Craig Edwards
2:47
That reminds me. Playoff Odds are now up: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
2:49
One of the options on that page looks at ties and you can see that right now the odds of a three-way tie in the NL Central is 1.1%, even 60 games out with the odds of a three-way tie for the second wild card is over 5% for both leagues. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/tie-breaker
There could be some nutty standings situations heading into the last few weeks of the season.
Dave
2:50
The way I heard the components of the schedules for teams, it appeared that there would be a bunch of two game series.  Wouldn't it make more sense to just play four games at one park and split it up on who is the home team?
Craig Edwards
2:52
With only 60 games, as level of a playing field as possible is a good idea. That said, a bunch of two-game series' increases the travel for teams by quite a bit it would seem and that is something that should be avoided.
TED
2:52
Stats, Stats, Stats... I would assume that a batting title would be considered to those who've achieved at least 200 at bats for this sawed off season, and understanding that anyone batting over .400 will not threaten any ones records (as it should be) and pitchers could ultimately get 10 -12 starts for the season, but should a pitcher win a CY Young award for a 6-2 record? and with all the incidentals concerning play, are the stats primarily ignored, and awards not given?
Craig Edwards
2:55
I don't think anyone is really going to be confused by a batter hitting over .400 or a pitcher having an ERA under 1. When we filter stats in the future to compare great seasons, we'll probably just use 500 PA or 150 innings rather than "qualified". As for awards, the players are going to go out and play a season, even if shortened. They deserve to win the awards no matter what they're overall stats look like.
Lorenzo
2:56
Who do you think the Yankees and Cole will face on opening night?  Red Sox?  Rays?  Mets?  Nationals?
Craig Edwards
2:58
I would think Red Sox or Rays. If they start on on the 23rd, that's a three-day runup to Sunday night baseball so it will give a bunch of good matchups national tv opportunities. Nats versus Mets or Braves. Astros-Dodgers, Cardinals-Cubs. There are a bunch to choose from, but I would expect them to mostly lean toward the division as opposed to interleague just due to the volume of games that need to be completed in division.
Smoking aces
2:59
What’s more likely this year - a qualified hitter hits .400, or a qualified pitcher has a sub 1.00 ERA?
Craig Edwards
2:59
That's a good question, and a fun one. I would guess hitter, but don't know for sure.
Dave C
2:59
What’s the % that any potential grievance discovery get negotiated out by the time a new CBA gets agreed upon? 90?
Craig Edwards
3:00
I doubt they agree to a new CBA with something like that still hanging over them.
Smoking aces
3:00
The Mariners were a terrible team last year that started on fire. Started 13-2, went 55-92 after that. They knew they weren’t that good so they didn’t make any moves despite the hot start. What does a team like that do this year if they find themselves in 1st place after 15 games? That’s a quarter of the season, banked wins.
Craig Edwards
3:04
Let's say you think you need 33 wins to make the playoffs. That means the Mariners in this case would need to go 20-25 the rest of the way. If they thought they were a true talent .400 team, then they would project for 18 more wins. If they had some holes that might get patched up with a couple more wins, they should make those moves to get to the playoffs. That said, I think there will be a lot more money moves than prospect moves.
Tony
3:04
How does the taxi-squad work? Frankly I haven’t been able to find much on how rosters or service time or assignments will work this year. Does getting moved from the taxi squad to the mlb team or vice versa count like moving from AAA to mlb? If not what’s the difference
Craig Edwards
3:04
i believe the taxi squad works like the minors.
Dave
3:04
If the virus keeps going like it is right now, will baseball have to go through the same type of bargaining to play the 2021 season?
Craig Edwards
3:05
Depends on a vaccine, though potentially getting 162 games in makes a difference with tv money.
Cube Jockey
3:05
How much of a carrot is the NL DH to the players union?  In theory, shouldn't the owners spend the same amount on payroll, whether it's partially to an aging DH, versus spread around on the rest of the roster?
Craig Edwards
3:05
I looked at it a few years ago and found it wasn't that big of a difference.
justaguy
3:06
Don't listen to the naysayers, Craig. We all know you are often right.
Craig Edwards
3:06
Thank you. and with that, we'll close things up for the day. Hopefully at this time next week, players will be in Spring Training. Again.
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