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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--6/6/2019
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Craig Edwards
2:00
A lot of Kimbrel questions already. We'll get going right after I refill my coffee.
2:03
and here's my longer take on the signing in full post form. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/craig-kimbrel-is-no-longer-a-free-agent/
I remember 1984
2:04
Kimbrel is headed to the Cubs, and is a bit of an unknown as he hasnt taken the mound in a long while. Does this push the market up for Shane Greene, and increase the urgency for the other teams in need of backend bullpen help like the Dodgers and Red Sox?
Craig Edwards
2:06
I don't think Kimbrel really changes the relief market for the trading deadline. There are always a ton of relievers traded and available and nearly all of it will happen after the All-Star Break. Teams are still going to spend the next month trying out different arms and hoping they can get it together before they go out and add someone. Nearly all contenders will add a reliever because that's just what contending teams do.
Greg
2:06
Are you surprised by Kimbrel's deal.  Seems a lot for 2 1/2 years.  And if it's not a lot, why not just sign him in February and get the benefit of the whole season.  Is draft pick compensation really that important?
Craig Edwards
2:07
We don't know for sure what Kimbrel's demands were, but it sure seems like if you are willing to pay 3/43 now, 3/50 plus the $5M-$6M in draft value doesn't seem too outrageous to get a full season.
Alec
2:07
Craig, the Twins sure seem like they ought to be aggressive in landing additional pitching. With primary target Kimbrel gone, how aggressive do they 1. will be and 2. ought to be in pursuing Kuechel?
Craig Edwards
2:09
I'm not sure they need a player like Kimbrel. The bullpen concerns in Minnesota are a bit overblown. There are some good arms there. Keuchel would probably be a better fit. He'd be a better fit on most teams, honestly. The Twins can spend less on relief help at the deadline and better assess their needs in late July as they have some cushion to decide. They might as well wait.
Dr. Bob
2:09
I thought that your tweet had a tacit criticism of the Cards not signing Kimbrell because of being cheap. Weren't you the one who reminded us that their organizational philosophy is to never pay for a closer because they can be developed? BTW, I completely agree with that sentiment. Keuckel is another story. I do hope they go the extra mile to get him for two years.
Craig Edwards
2:11
If I'm running an organization, I'm not going to spend a ton of money on a free agent reliever. If you are going to spend money on a free agent reliever, I think going for a more elite option is better. The Cardinals are really playing with fire right now in the rotation and Keuchel would really fit well with what they need without costing too much.
Voldemort
2:11
CRAIG what is up?
Craig Edwards
2:12
Just looking for horcruxes.
Bobby Cox
2:12
The Braves really need to sign Dallas and push Gausman or Folty to the bullpen, right? What other SP help is realistic at this point.
Craig Edwards
2:14
Keuchel would really help them. It wouldn't surprise me to see them make a run at Stroman. Bumgarner is going to be available. Maybe Boyd or Mike Minor or Lance Lynn. There should be starters available. I wonder if teams wouldn't be better off trying to jump the gun and trade now given that two more months of a starter can be a pretty big difference given the state of most teams' fifth starters.
Slurve
2:15
Is it preferential to be a fly ball pitcher vs. ground ball pitcher? Other than park factors, what else would tip the scale or is it generally one over the other?  I get that ground balls are rarely home runs...    Thanks!
Craig Edwards
2:16
Ben Clemens had a good article on that the other day. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gregory-groundball-vs-marty-mcfly-who-allo...
It doesn't really matter that much as long as you can get outs.
Chris
2:17
Leake almost got traded to Arizona? Why are they buying number 4 starters?
Craig Edwards
2:17
They are kind of in contention, he would be pretty close to free and he's from there. He would make the team better.
Kw
2:18
Are the Cubs done fixing the bullpen or do they go after a lefty in the trade market?
Craig Edwards
2:19
Depends on how some of the internal options progress and get healthy, but it is still a pretty good bet that they trade for another reliever near the deadline.
Matt
2:20
Why is Chris Archer throwing a sinker 22% of the time this season(twice as much) after hitters had a .396 wOBA off it last year and a.492 wOBA off it this season. It doesn't generate any whiffs really either. It seems like baseball has moved away from the sinker too.
Craig Edwards
2:23
It does get called strikes a decent amount of the time and it usually pairs well with sliders and changeups which Archer does throw. Whether he has the right mix, I couldn't say, but that's the philosophy behind it. As for the numbers, we are only talking about 24 PA this season, so it isn't much to go from.
Kurupt FM
2:23
If you were the jays what would you do with Aaron Sanchez?
Craig Edwards
2:25
If he's healthy, trade him. He hasn't looked great the last few starts and would need a good run over the next two months to really build up value. With another year of control after this season, the team can keep him if there aren't good offers, but if they can move him, they should.
Guest
2:25
Why does German Marques continue to be overlooked? Seems like he was overlooked last year relative to Kyle Freeland and this year his great start hasn't gotten much attention
Craig Edwards
2:27
I can't speak for everyone else, but I wrote about him last year https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somethings-gotten-into-german-marquez/ and Eric covered him when he signed his extension. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rockies-long-term-core-takes-shape-with-ma...
2:28
He did get off to a slow start last year which doesn't help attention-getting. This year, the Rockies got off to a slow start and that doesn't help matters. He doesn't have eye-popping strikeout numbers and his ERA sits at 4, even if that is good for Colorado, it isn't going to turn heads. He's a good pitcher and if he continues to pitch well, the attention will come.
Admiral Akbar
2:29
How much are you buying into Frankie Montas for the rest of the year?
Craig Edwards
2:32
He's obviously always had the velocity and the splitter gives him another swing and miss offering with the slider. The chase rate on the splitter is really high right now, and I do worry as players get more looks at it that the'll be able to lay off the pitch, but even so, it is an encouraging start to the season.
Dylan
2:32
Does Kimbrel’s deal hurt Keuchel? Or are they mutually exclusive
Craig Edwards
2:33
I wouldn't think it would hurt. It might help that the team that signed Kimbrel wasn't going to be in on Keuchel. If Keuchel's expectations were anchored for a one-year deal, this might give him pause given Kimbrel got three, but I couldn't say that for sure.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:34
Per Rosenthal, the Rays (!) were runners up for Kimbrel at 3/39 or 2/31, so apparently they're willing to add around $15MM for their push. How do you see those hypothetical dollars getting used now? Keuchel? Taking on contracts at the deadline?
Craig Edwards
2:35
It's possible that they would take on contracts at the deadline, though this might have been an isolated case for the Rays. They certainly have the prospect capital to make any move they want, but I don't know that this means they will end up using the money on anyone else unless they think it will make a big difference.
Andrew
2:37
So is Jason Vargas actually a perfectly solid 5th starter? How is he having a better season than Thor? I'm very confused.
Craig Edwards
2:38
Depends what you want out of a fifth starter, but a guy who can go five innings at an above-replacement rate definitely fits that bill, which is what Vargas is. As for Syndergaard, he's been way better than Vargas, just not quite as lucky.
James
2:39
Is Matthew Boyd legit? How much of a haul would he command at the deadline?
Craig Edwards
2:41
Still a skeptic on Boyd due to the pitch mix, but he keeps producing. I would think he would get the biggest return of any of the starters who are available. Something less than what Archer was moved for last year, though.
just a guy
2:41
it seems the Cubs could still use a starter. Yu just doesn't seem comfortable. What would be reasonable starter return for Happ?
Craig Edwards
2:44
I don't see the Cubs moving for a starter. As for Happ, I'm not sure what his value really is right now. He's not hitting in the minors and he's got almost two years of service time. He's not exactly lighting it up in the minors. He's not going to be the centerpiece in a deal that gets a quality starter in return.
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