You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--7/18/2019
powered byJotCast
Craig Edwards
2:02
Let's get things rolling.
2:03
First, here's my piece on the lack of potential 60-homer hitters this season. I was somewhat surprised that the answer was more than just it is really hard to hit 60 homers. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/where-are-the-60-home-run-hitters/
Rexy
2:03
How do you feel about tatis’ strikeout problems? Can he still have an above average ba. Also are you confident that he will improve his swing miss issues as he ages?
Craig Edwards
2:03
He’s always had that as part of his game. He does hit the ball hard, but he’s obviously not going to keep BABIPing  over .400 forever. If he’s a .340 or .350 BABIP guy an everything else stays the same, that’s still a 110-115 wRC+ probably. With good baserunning and even slightly below average defense, that’s a 4-win guy. Presumably, he’ll get his strikeouts in slightly more manageable fashion in the future, but he can still be good with a 30% strikeout rate.
THE George Lopez
2:04
I'm not sure if this is your department, but it will a little sad/strange to see the feature where you can scroll down to the bottom of a player's page and view all their previous contracts disappear. It was always nice to be able to see that, and now I have to go to a different site to hunt that info down, so, yeah, just seems a little odd that that helpful feature was gotten rid of for some reason.
Craig Edwards
2:05
Somewhat related to that is that roster resource has been integrated into FanGraphs which you can read about here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/introducing-rosterresource-depth-charts/
2:06
At some point, we'll get more detailed contract info in an easier to access spot.
John
2:07
Which teams are likelier to make trades due to Rule 5 roster considerations?
Craig Edwards
2:07
The Rays are the big ones. Eric talked about that a little bit. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rays-and-rangers-swap-prospects/
2:09
If you have questions about a particular team, got to the roster resource page and look through for Dec 19 players under Rule 5 status. If there are a bunch of players needing protection, then a trade now is more likely. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/cardinals
Inspector Brosseau
2:10
Opinion: Twins made a huge mistake by not paying a premium to trade for pitching help 2-3 weeks ago, when it was obvious it would be needed. If the Indians are still 10 games back right now, they sell and the division is a cakewalk. Now they've let them back in it and have to pay up anyway.
Craig Edwards
2:11
I think the Twins definitely could have been helped, though there isn't that much they can do about Cleveland playing great. We don't know what that premium might look like just because nobody else has made that move, either. Dallas Keuchel seems like the more obvious miss.
John
2:11
Do you think the Cardinals could get Bauer without giving up Gorman or Carlson?  Or who would you try to target at the deadline?  Because we need this trade to be for the long-term, and not just this year since we are a couple pieces away.
Craig Edwards
2:12
I doubt it. They could try an O’Neill and Hudson. Given where Cleveland is right now, it’s hard to see them as highly motivated to move Bauer. They can still make another run with him this year and then trade him in the offseason if they want.
As far as what else the Cardinals can do, Syndergaard, Minor, and Stroman are the other arms with 2020 control. The team’s trade chips are Carlson, Gorman, Knizner, Bader, Hudson, and O’Neill. It will take at least one and maybe two of those guys to land one of those pitchers. The Cardinals have never had the appetite for one of those deals at the deadline in the past. If they feel confident about this season, and O’Neill for Bumgarner deal makes some sense.
Jeff
2:13
Thought your 60 HR piece was interesting, but with Yelich hitting another last night, it seems like he and Bellinger both have at least a reasonable shot if they stay healthy. Which as noted is the crucial prerequisite to having a chance. Has the way teams use the DL/IL for precautionary purposes changed over time? Last three seasons only 9, 6, and 10 players in the league hit 700 PAs, and the relative likelihood many of those lucky guys will be sluggers in a given year seems low.
Craig Edwards
2:18
He still has to hit 26 homers in 65 games. That's a 65 homer pace, and he's less than that now. It's possible, but is still not very likely. As for the PAs necessary. I think teams are also more cognizant of getting players days off, which isn't going to help home run pursuits. In addition to the 25 guys you mentioned another 35 had more than 680 PA so it isn't like it is impossible. You just have to have the right guys in the right year. Stanton in 2017 playing somewhere other than Miami probably gets to it. Better health from a handful of guys would increase the chances by a lot this season.
J
2:18
Should I trust that J Hey is really as much better in right than center as the early metrics say this year? Both DRS and UZR seem to think he's still a gold glover in right but pretty bad in center.
Craig Edwards
2:21
Heyward is generally a great fielder because he gets great jumps, is very good around the ball and has good positioning to prepare himself for the throw and then makes very good throws. The one thing he doesn't have is great sprint speed. Many plays in center field come down to having that speed. Center exposes his one relative weakness. It doesn't make him bad in center, but I do think he is much better suited to right field.
Stevil
2:21
Is there any indication of Pittsburgh shooting for the postseason, and if so, should Hayes be available if they could acquire a semi-controllable star?
Craig Edwards
2:23
I don't think that would be wise for the Pirates. When they went for it last year, they traded Glasnow, who looked like a reliever for them, Meadows, who couldn't seem to stay healthy, and a recent pick. It was a high cost, but not guys who were almost assuredly part of the future. Hayes is a guy they should keep. I don't know what going for it for the Pirates would look like, but I wouldn't see them trading Hayes.
Roger
2:24
Hi Craig. Franmil has had a nice season and he is underperforming is xBA. Would you confidently project him as an annual .260 30-35HR bat?
Craig Edwards
2:25
That seems pretty fair.
Impatient
2:25
How early is too early to worry about Vladito? This time next year?
Craig Edwards
2:26
Next August maybe some concern, sure.
Chris
2:27
When will dipoto start trading?
Craig Edwards
2:27
He's already made a few trades, but I'm sure more are on their way in the next few weeks.
Slurve
2:28
If you were building a team from scratch starting today, which player would you pick first? Why?  (i.e. is the answer still Trout?)
Craig Edwards
2:28
Still Trout.
Billy Pilgrim
2:29
Is this a fair trade?Boyd for Brujan and Sanchez.
Craig Edwards
2:29
That’s a top-20 and a top-40 prospect both in the 55 range. That seems pretty steep for 3.5 years of Boyd, who only has one good half-season of baseball. I think two guys in the top-100 is reasonable, but more like one guy in the top 40 and another guy at the back end of the top-100 plus couple longer shots or low ceiling guys.
Chris
2:29
Who does Mike leake end up with?
Will Domingo Santana or narvaez be traded?
Craig Edwards
2:30
I'm sure Jerry is on it. I'll say Leake to the Brewers?
Phil
2:30
what's your outlook for Amed Rosario the remainder of the year?
Craig Edwards
2:32
I think his season line right now is a pretty reasonable expectation. Something like .270/.310/.430ish. He had a solid August and September last season and has been hot as of late so possible a little bit more than that, but I wouldn't expect it.
Dennis Quaid from The Rookie
2:33
With the Angels 5.5 games out and Jo Adell mashing in Double-A, do you think he makes it to the bigs this year?
Craig Edwards
2:34
I doubt it. If the Angels were going to be in the playoffs, it might make sense to see if he can handle MLB pitching in September and get him on the playoff roster, but right now, he's probably better served developmentally by sticking in the minors the rest of this year.
Trent
2:35
Should the Reds try to extend Tanner Roark and/or Yasiel Puig?
Craig Edwards
2:36
Right now? I wouldn't think so. If they are worthy of extensions, then they are worthy of qualifying offers. Might be better off seeing the season out and then negotiating with the QO attached.
Load More Messages
Connecting…