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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--7/18/2019
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John
2:36
What type of contract do you think Gerrit Cole will get this offseason?  The Cardinals really need to go all out for him(i know they wont).
Craig Edwards
2:37
Corbin got 6/140. Cole will be the same age, but has been better longer so I would think 7/175 or something like that. I doubt the Cardinals go after him, but can't rule it out, particularly if they miss the playoffs again.
Roger
2:38
Is Chris Sale *actually* the most inconsistent pitcher in baseball, or does it just seem that way.  (12Ks through 5 scoreless innings so far today; at least 5 earned runs in his previous 3 starts)
Craig Edwards
2:39
I doubt it. I think he just went through a rough patch. Poor performances are just more noticeable with a pitcher like Sale because of the higher standard he sets.
Randy Arozarena
2:39
What do I need to do to get my shot in CF in St. Louis?
Craig Edwards
2:40
You need to get yourself on the 40-man roster and have available playing time. Right now, O’Neill, Bader, Fowler, and Martinez are all still outielders even with Ozuna down and O’Neill has earned himself an extended role. Even benching Bader means O’Neill or Fowler in center field on some days. It might take one more injury or a trade to provide a real shot at playing time.
Inspector Brosseau
2:41
Angels have to look into playing Ohtani in the outfield a bit, right?  Start every 6 days, sandwich those days at DH, other days in the OF w/ Pujols filling in at DH, get a full time first baseman who actually contributes positively to the offense...Whole lineup is better
Craig Edwards
2:42
Unless they are going to tell him to walk the ball back into the infield every time, that's too big a risk right now. I wouldn't want him throwing other than in a highly monitored, relaxing setting.
Petey Bienel
2:42
do the Nationals have the prospect assets not named Kieboom to get into the bullpen trade market?
Craig Edwards
2:44
Every team has the prospects to get into the bullpen trade market. It's just the level of reliever that matters. I don't see them going for Will Smith, but there are always a ton of relievers, including a bunch who could help the Nationals, who won't require more than a 40 prospect, and the Nationals are fine there.
Inspector Brosseau
2:44
(Re: Ohtani, I mean for next year.  It's DH for him for 2019 clearly)
Craig Edwards
2:46
Oh, okay. I'm still not sure that is the right way to go given he'll get rest around the days he's starting. Plus, the Angels have Trout, Upton, and at some point next year, Marsh and Adell. It probably isn't worth it for a very temporary need.
____
2:47
Thoughts on Robel Garcia?
Craig Edwards
2:48
Is he good? Probably not with that strikeout rate. Do we not know enough about him that it might be worth getting him a bunch of playing time now given the Cubs' lackluster options at second base? Probably.
Dennis Quaid from The Rookie
2:49
Hunter Dozier is swinging the bat well again--maybe he has re-adjusted. Can he make an All-Star Game?
Craig Edwards
2:50
If we can chalk up his slump to his injury, and I don't know a whole lot about thorax injuries, then an All-Star berth is a possibility in the future, but I'd still like to see him keep this up another couple months.
Mel
2:50
Would you expect the Yankees to pursue Cole in the offseason?
Craig Edwards
2:50
Seems like a pretty obvious fit.
Matt
2:52
With the Nationals trying Kieboom at 3b for the post-rendon era, it got me thinking about the value of different positions. Assuming his glove plays the same at 2b and 3b, does his offense profile better as a 2b? Is Kieboom and a league avg 3b in the lineup better than Kieboom and a league avg 2b?
Craig Edwards
2:53
I don't think that matters all that much. His ability to play both does help the Nationals in that when they are pursuing other players, they can look to both second and third base without Kieboom blocking or getting blocked by someone. Kind of find it hard to believe that Washington doesn't just bring Rendon back, though.
Morbo
2:54
Do you think there is a talent evaluation problem within the Cardinals FO? (Why or why not?)
Craig Edwards
2:58
Not sure I see a talent evaluation problem. They have solid prospects. Their big swing at the international pool in 2016 have been mostly misses but most of those guys are still young enough where we could see some surprises down the line. They've done a good job developing young major leaguers like Bader and DeJong and Carlson is another example of good development. Where the problem lies is in a perpetual lack of risk-taking and going the safe route because it is a little easier and creates less friction. That means mostly safe trades, unnecessary extensions and trading players when their value is at its lowest instead of at their peak. The Cardinals aren't that far off despite everything, but it has been a disappointing few years.
jkim
2:59
Which one of May/Lux/Ruiz/Smith will the Dodgers give up for a top-end reliever?
Craig Edwards
3:01
None of the first three, and while a Will Smith for Will Smith trade would be exciting, the Giants probably aren't in the market for a catcher. Not sure which other relievers out there would be worth giving up Smith for which might cause them to make mulitple moves rather than just one.
White Sox Fan
3:01
Does my team have the worst FO in the majors right now?  Rebuild at least 2 years behind and every ML guy we sign/trade for (with the possible exception of McCann) sucks.
Craig Edwards
3:04
The rebuild is going pretty well, I'd say. The team has Moncada, Anderson, Jimenez with Robert, Madrigal, and Vaughn all close. They had some bad luck with pitching last year, but Giolito is doing well, Cease should be solid and hopefully Kopech can come back well next year. They should've gotten Machado, but they are basically one Lester move away from being in very good position in the Central. They have to deliver now that they have the opportunity, but all things considered, they are in a good spot.
TC Bear
3:05
What percent chance would you give Cleveland winning the division?
Craig Edwards
3:05
They are 16% chance right now according the playoff odds. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
I'll let recency bias enter my brain and say it is more like 25%.
Sum
3:06
Are you surprised at Mookie's mere 13 HRs, given the league-wide homer spike? Is there something in his hitting profile that suggests an adjustment could increase that number? Or just luck to this point in the year?
Craig Edwards
3:07
I think it is just a general lack of production issue more than home run specific. He's still got a 125 wRC+ but when you go for 185 like he did last season, expectations were raised. It's really hard to be Mike Trout in more than one season unless you are Mike Trout.
pumpsie
3:08
Kiley predicted $49M total for Judge's 3 years of arb. Sound right to you?
Craig Edwards
3:10
so that's 10, 15, 24? that's pretty reasonable. Finishing second to Altuve in the MVP in 2017 probably cost him $10 M- $20 M.
pumpsie
3:10
Would Guerrero Jr. be in the show if he were on a playoff-bound team like the Dodgers, Astros or Yankees?
Craig Edwards
3:11
He would have been on the team last year in that case. Maybe he would've adjusted better this season, then, too. All speculation of course, but Guerrero's performance so far doesn't justify keeping him down or mean he deserves a demotion.
Lefty Gomez
3:13
In light of baseball's trend toward growing specialization, how important should WAR be in evaluating a player's admissibility to the HOF?  For instance, starters aren't throwing as many innings, so will not be able to accumulate as much value.
Craig Edwards
3:15
I think pitching standards will evolve and need to evolve from what they've been in the past. 300 wins became the standard at some point over the last 30 years when it wasn't necessary at all before then. I think voters might look at peak a little more, but in terms of not pitching enough innings, I think WAR is actually the reasonable alternative when considering innings because it looks at the actual impact in the innings pitchers did pitch.
That's going to do it for me. Thanks for all the questions. See you next week.
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