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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--7/25/2019
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Craig Edwards
2:01
Going to let the queue fill up a bit, but in the meantime, I predicted the trade deadline here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/predicting-the-2019-trade-deadline/
2:02
I also talked about the ridiculousness of the eighth inning of the Red Sox-Rays game and tried to have a little fun with it. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/the-curious-case-of-the-rays-e...
Kw
2:08
Who do you think is the highest profile player to be moved this deadline?
Craig Edwards
2:08
I'm still going to say Madison Bumgarner, but if it isn't him, it is Stroman or Minor. I'm just not sure any of the bigger names get moved right now.
John
2:08
Does Houston get a long-term SP and if so, who?
Craig Edwards
2:10
I doubt it, at least at the deadline. If they offer Tucker, they could certainly get one of the better arms available now or in the offseason, but I think a pending FA starter is more likely for them right now.
Guest
2:10
Stroman and Gilles have been outstanding. What would they fetch on the trade market assuming Braves, Twins, Nationals and Yankees are interested?
Craig Edwards
2:12
I think the Blue Jays should get a very good return for Stroman and GIles. I don't think they'll net a top-20 prospect but a package that starts with a top-50 guy makes sense with a bunch of non-top-100 guys as well. Giles alone probably gets a back half top-100 guy so it might make sense to trade them separately.
mamsk
2:12
Do you think a Braves package for Mike Minor is more likely to center around Ian Anderson or Drew Waters?
Craig Edwards
2:13
I doubt they deal Waters so if they make a deal for Minor/Stroman, I would think Anderson leads the deal.
Woah Nellie
2:13
Did you know that ZiPS projects Trout to be only the second-best hitter in baseball next year (by wOBA)?
Craig Edwards
2:14
I think that once they are updated in the offseason, Trout ends up back on top, though Soto is an interesting player when you are projecting out more than one season.
jim
2:15
Snell is getting surgery. The Rays have been .500ish for the last 70% of the season so far. Do you think there's a legit chance of them giving up on playoff hunt (if they continue to stumble) and leave McKay in AAA to try gaining another year of control by leaving him down there to start next season as well? He's only had 45ish IP above AA in his career so they could "justify" it
Craig Edwards
2:17
I think that's pretty unlikely. The team is still very much in the race and have to trade a bunch of guys due to 40-man roster issues. Hard to see them not adding and going for a playoff spot. And I don't see them doing that to McKay.
Jenski
2:17
Hi Craig, what is the min/max return a Tigers fan could expect in a Matt Boyd deal? Does he even get traded?
Craig Edwards
2:19
I don't think he gets dealt. There are enough concerns that he probably won't get the return the Tigers want. I think two top-100ish guys with none in the top-30 or so plus some lottery tickets is a reasonable return right now, which is why they probably hold onto him.
jim
2:21
Who do you think is the best prospect that'll get called up this season (from here on out)? Any chance of Adell, Lux, or Robert getting real MLB playing time before this season ends?
Craig Edwards
2:23
I think the Dodgers seem like the team to call up one of their top guys (May, Lux) to help them potentially in the playoffs. I don't see anybody in the top-4 getting called up and Whitley isn't healthy. THe rest of the top-10 doesn't make a ton of sense, either. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
El Guapo
2:23
Scott Kingery or JP Crawford, do either one of them have a star turn next year? I feel both of them are post-hype sleepers.
Craig Edwards
2:26
I think Kingery, who was dreadful in his debut, but seems to have recovered, is more likely than Crawford. Kingery still has more room to get better with his strikeout rate where Crawford would have to hit for more power to really break out and he's already hitting for more power than he did in the minors.
troke
2:28
Where did Robel Garcia come from and is he for real? Also, will Happ play and where?
Craig Edwards
2:31
He spent half a decade playing in Italy. His strikeout rates indicate the 149 wRC+ isn't close to being real, but since he's been gone from the US for so long, it's worth finding out if that is something he can get down in the big leagues. As for Happ, he's better against righties than lefties which might make it tough to get playing time in that lineup.
2 min break.
Glenn Spankman
2:33
Why are the Giants not playing Alex Dickerson regularly with the way he's been hitting?
Craig Edwards
2:34
They are spreading playing time with a bunch of guys they want to take a look at it, and it doesn't help that Yaz is also a lefty.
Bo
2:35
How much longer can the Braves afford to let Riley work through his struggles? Long term I'm sure he'll adjust and be fine, but is the middle of a pennant chase the time to give him a long leash?
Craig Edwards
2:36
Probably a little bit longer. If you send him to Triple-A to fix something, but he just mashes because the competition is weaker, then he's not prepared for late-August and September when you need him. Having his bat be good presents a higher ceiling than any of the current potential replacements. Letting him struggle for a few more weeks might give him a better chance of being good again when the Braves need him.
LLW
2:36
Would you ever, under any circumstances, eat soup at the ballpark
Craig Edwards
2:37
Yes.
Nolan
2:37
With the Giants, Nationals, and Indians getting into the race, there may be fewer starters (like Bumgarner, Scherzer, and Bauer) on the market.  At the same time, we've seen recent injuries to Woodruff, Chacin, Snell, and others, leaving more holes in teams' rotations.  Does this signal a very strong market for those teams that *are* still looking to sell a pitcher?
Craig Edwards
2:39
I think the true sellers are in very good position. Rangers and Blue Jays for sure. The Giants will be if they change course. The problem for the teams looking for a starter is that the other tier of guys like Boyd and Syndergaard are likely asking for about double the guys who are available so it doesn't change the market all that much.
Bo
2:39
There are far more buyers than sellers at this junction. Is it going to end up being a slow deadline?
Craig Edwards
2:39
I think so, yes. There is also a big lack on the position player side.
jim
2:40
Are you buying into Reynaldo Lopez's fantastic last 3 starts? He had a strong stretch of 7 starts to end last season and these last 3 starts have more promising signs (see: fastball velocity up, a lot more swinging strikes, etc)
Craig Edwards
2:43
I would like to. Starts against the Marlins don't really count, but the Rays and Oakland are decent and the change happened right after the All-Star break. He can't be just a fastball-slider guy and expect the good run to continue, but after what happened with Giolito this season, I wouldn't bet against Lopez.
Mason Jarre
2:43
Macro-conceptual wise - considering no team will have anything but longshot odds against the field in the current 3 round PS format, does it make sense to trade top prospects to marginally improve your odds?
Craig Edwards
2:44
It certainly can. Making the playoffs provides a boost to ticket sales the following season in addition to the revenue teams receive in the playoffs, particularly a deep run.
CarmenC
2:45
What's going to happen with Castellanos? the only good fits seem like CLE or TB but they aren't usually wont to buy
Craig Edwards
2:45
The Cubs seem like a good possibility as well. He'll go somewhere.
JustCurious
2:45
What is Dominic Smith's and J.D. Davis's trade value?
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