JotCast | Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--7/30/2020

Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--7/30/2020

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Craig Edwards

2:00

Let's get things rolling.

LVP

2:00

Has Christian Yelich already taken himself out of MVP contention?

Craig Edwards

2:04

I don't think so, but his end of the year numbers aren't going to look great. If he does exactly what he did the last two years for the next 220 PA, he'll put up 2.8 WAR, but with half a win below replacement with his start, he's going to end up at 2.3. I'm guessing the leader gets closer to 3 so he will probably not win even if he catches fire, but if he does really well for 54 games, there will be some voters willing to ignore the first six.

Brodie Van bytheRiver

2:05

Time to replace Cano? My rookie Gimenez had a solid start last night and Robinson looks done...

Craig Edwards

2:07

I'm not sure about replace, but Cano projects as a below-average player. He should still play sometimes, but he's 37 years old and is a better fit as a quality bench guy than starter. I'd love to see what Gimenez will do with playing time.

Jimmy

2:07

Trout excluded, who is the next 10 win player?

Craig Edwards

2:11

Interesting question. Before Trout it was Bonds in 2001-4, and Trout was only 12 years old then. Betts has done it but probably won't again. If you are thinking about candidates, you have to look at Soto, Bellinger, Acuna Jr., Lindor, maybe Devers or Tatis Jr., but the odds of it being anybody in the majors right now is fairly slim because it is so hard to do.

Chris

2:11

Why do people think 30 players travelling together will help teams with covid out breaks when 26 will allow 4 good players to not be with the team

Craig Edwards

2:13

I think the 30 players was more for just the lack of prep time for the season, but in theory if a few players have to sit out or report symptoms, then it still makes playing the game possible, if it is contained. I don't think 30-man rosters help contain the spread at all.

Chris

2:14

Kyle Lewis for MVP and rookie of the year!!

Craig Edwards

2:15

He's picked up right where he left off last year, though his strikeout rate is just too dang high to think this will continue. But consider, even if he only puts up an 86 wRC+ the rest of the season, he's going to end up at like 105 for the whole year with this start.

Jeff

2:16

David Peterson...Nate Pearson...Kris Bubic...Brady Singer....I'm enjoying teams being aggressive with top performing MiL arms

Craig Edwards

2:17

Agreed. I would like to see Forrest Whitley, though Cristian Javier is intriguing as well.

Nik

2:17

How are you feeling about the Cardinals offense moving forward? What would you do if you were Mike Shildt?

Craig Edwards

2:19

The offense was never going to be good, and it is hard to know what to make of five games, but if you want to change something, seems like making Dylan Carlson your leadoff hitter would be a fairly dramatic change that might have meaningful results.

Chris

2:20

Should we commend the royals or make fun of them for not understanding service time?

Craig Edwards

2:23

I mean, what are they really saving by messing with service time right now with these guys? Singer and Bubic are decent prospects, but Bubic was rated more highly than Singer and he was still just the 116th-best prospect in baseball. The odds that this goes against the Royals heading into the 2026 season seems pretty slim and if one of those guys turns into a player they would have gotten good savings from with service time manipulation, they are already way ahead. This is two CBA's from now. It's hard to know if the same rules will even be in effect.

Gashouse Gorilla

2:24

Recognizing it's very early, is there anything you've seen so far, from a player or a team, that has really surprised you?

Craig Edwards

2:25

The White Sox starting pitching has been a little rough in performance and injuries, but that could change in short order. I've been really impressed by the Padres so far.

Jeff

2:26

Hey, what's the chat schedule these days?

Craig Edwards

2:26

It's still down on the home page if you scroll down, but just for immediacy: Chats
All times ET
S8 PMJeff ZimmermanM2 PMBen ClemensT2 PMJay JaffeW2 PMPaul Sporer4 PMMeg RowleyTh12 PMDan Szymborski2 PMCraig EdwardsF12 PMEric Longenhagen

hopefully that doesn't look too weird

Bubba

2:27

Eric Hosmer's launch angle sits at 31.2 degrees. Is this a new Hosmer or SSS?

Craig Edwards

2:29

Probably a SSS, but it isn't like Hosmer hasn't been a talented hitter with the ability to hit the ball hard. Even getting the ball in the air a little more would give him 30 homers in a normal year.

Chris

2:30

Do you think we will see more trades this year between teams that are playing each other (aka the player can walk into the other dugout)

Craig Edwards

2:30

I don't think so. I think teams would want a new test or confirmation of the most recent test before letting a player just switch teams.

Chris

2:31

Has Evan white locked up the gold glove already?

Craig Edwards

2:31

He has looked good, though Matt Olson didn't disappear or anything.

YardGoat

2:32

Hope you are doing well Craig! What team (or player(s)) have you found yourself watching more often this year?

Craig Edwards

2:33

I know I shouldn't, but it is kind of easy to get sucked into the Yankees to see how Cole does and how Stanton's recovery is doing, plus just watching Gleyber Torres.

Hells Bells

2:33

Pads could be 6-0 had it not been for their vaunted backend bullpen arms blowing two late leads. Think these early losses could mean the difference in such a short season, especially considering they were against the division?

Craig Edwards

2:34

I mean if you are talking about trying to beat the Dodgers, sure, but that was always going to take a lot. If you are talking about getting to the postseason, maybe it makes a difference, but teams are going to blow leads. It happens.

Hells Bells

2:34

Pads have Zach Davies and Joey Lucchesi scheduled to pitch in Coors this weekend. How can soft-tossers succeed there?

Craig Edwards

2:34

Don't walk anyone and hope for great defense.

Nick

2:36

What are your thoughts on Brady Singer? The common thought is he only has 2 pitches and needs to develop his changeup, but both his fastball and slider are plus and he manipulates both so they seem to function as more than 2 pitches to me at least

Craig Edwards

2:37

It usually still isn't enough, and it is something that can work well for a while, but eventually gets you hammered even if you are mixing in really good starts with some mediocre ones. I think the change is still going to be necessary to take a step forward to above-average starter.

Jordan

2:37

Thoughts on Nate Pearson going toe to toe with Scherzer?

Craig Edwards

2:38

I'd direct you to Tony Wolfe's piece today. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nate-pearson-didnt-need-his-full-arsenal-t...

He's a great prospect off to a great start.

Art Vandelay

2:39

Any concerns about Charlie Morton- specifically, his velocity being down?

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