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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--8/22/2019
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Ron Effing Swanson
2:52
The second-best pitcher of this generation/last ~10 years is Scherzer, Verlander, or someone else (Greinke?)?
Craig Edwards
2:52
I think it is Scherzer. The Cy Youngs plus more consistency than Verlander probably put him over the top.
Riley
2:53
What can be expected of Oscar Mercado next year? Hitting in the meat part of a pretty good batting order is quite tempting.
Craig Edwards
2:55
I think being hopeful that he can repeat what he's done so far (100 wRC+) is probably a good starting point. Realistically, he's not going to be as good next season as he's been this year. He doesn't hit the ball all that hard so he needs those hits to drop to be really successful. A 2-3 win player seems like a pretty good outcome.
Hiura
2:55
After 266 MLB PA's my K% still sits well above 30% - how worrisome is this continued trend from my AAA K% of 26.3% (over 246 PA)?
Craig Edwards
2:58
It is worrisome to the extent he's probably going to be a high strikeout guy if he's going to hit for this much power. He'll be fine in the 25-30% range with average to above average power. If the league continues to find holes, he's going to have to try and hit for more contact. Expecting the current stat line to continue isn't realistic.
JupiterBrando
2:58
7/175 for Cole seems really low. Corbin just got 6/140 (albeit with a bunch of deferred money), and Corbin was widely seen as a solid #2, not a top 10 pitcher in baseball. I'd be stunned if Cole doesn't set a pitcher free agent record
Craig Edwards
3:00
It wouldn't surprise me to see him get more, especially if the Yankees go in big on him, but I'm not going to assume that after the last few years.
Richie
3:01
Only way to prevent position players from pitching is to penalize it somehow.  Otherwise, it's in the manager's interest to not tire a real pitcher's arm in a lost cause.
Craig Edwards
3:01
That's why they are changing the rule next season to limit it.
Guest
3:01
Re your answer on break-pumping, from old man yelling at clouds: it’s BRAKE-pumping, for Pete’s sake!
SilverRings
3:01
Is Keibert Ruiz trade bait for the Dodgers? Sounds crazy to even think about losing such a polished young catcher but it also seems like the only way to extract full value from him/Smith is to ship one of them off
Craig Edwards
3:04
maybe, but they could just hold on to two young catchers for at least another year. Absent injury, the value isn't likely to go down for a 21 year old.
Josh
3:05
Should we just pencil in Soto and Acuna to challenge for MVPs for the next decade or what? It’s getting kinda silly at this point
Craig Edwards
3:06
That would certainly be fun, though you never know who might pop up next.
JustCurious
3:07
Which NL East teams young position player core would you take? Based on under 27, good this year, and controllable for 2+ years it is (Braves: Acuna, Albies, Swanson. Nats: Soto, Turner, Robles. Phillies: Harper, Hoskins, Kingery. Mets: McNeil, Alonso, Conforto, Rosario, JD Davis).
Craig Edwards
3:08
That's a fun question. I'd lean Braves because they have the best player. Phillies and Nats are right there together and Mets a step behind.
MVPs
3:08
Uh, why would we count out Bellinger for the next several years too? He's not exactly old.
Craig Edwards
3:09
I don't think that was the intent of the question. Acuna and Soto are going to be paired together because they were rookies last season. Bellinger can certainly contend for MVPs as well.
Jeff in T.O.
3:09
Wait, so Scherzer is only second best pitcher of the past decade? I'd say he's a lot closer to Kershaw than to JV...
Craig Edwards
3:10
By WAR since 2010, Kershaw 59, Scherzer 54, Verlander 52, then Sale 44 and Greinke/Price at 40.
Acuna and Soto
3:10
Is this going to be a Trout/Harper deal where one of them hits a height above the other and sustains it and the other fluctuates?
Craig Edwards
3:11
Neither Acuna not Soto is Trout, so that makes it less likely. That Acuna gets more value on defense and baserunning and Soto with his bat should make for a very interesting comparison.
Nick
3:12
Suppose Ryu finishes with a 1.80 ERA and at least 170 innings.  What's a reasonable contract: 3/75? 4/95? Would teams gamble on longer-term deals despite his injury history?
Craig Edwards
3:15
That's really tough. He's started around 40 games in the four seasons before this one. He'll be 33 next season. It's hard to come up with a comparison. An older Rich Hill got 3/48. Four and 95 seems really tough to get to. I'll guess 3/65 but is tough to see how the market is going to take shape and if Strasburg is going to be in it.
Dodger Fan
3:16
what's the true talent of jack flaherty? he's pitching great in the second half, but a quick inspection reveals it's mainly due to an unsustainably low BABIP and insanely high LOB%
Craig Edwards
3:20
Depends on what you are looking at. That low BABIP and high LOB% help get his ERA to 0.83 in the second half, but that obviously isn't his true talent level. He's got a 2.38 FIP, but hasn't given up many homers. Projections right now say he's a 3.5 WAR player. That seems reasonable, though he's got the potential to do more if his homers stay close to league average along with his current walk and strikeout rates.
Jerek Deter
3:21
Why doesn't Shane Bieber get more clout lately?  Does he have 80 control/command or what has he improved on?
Craig Edwards
3:21
I wrote about him in May. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-best-bieber/
Kiley put him at number 21 in the trade value rankings. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-21-to-30/
Hal Steinbrenner
3:23
Does how much I open my checkbook for Cole (or Stras or Ryu or whatever) depend on the likelihood an absurdly resilient high90s-low100 win position player team is foiled by a lack of SP depth? Do I stay cheap if we actually go far (say to, but not winning, WS)? Or will it be unrelated?
Craig Edwards
3:24
I would imagine that looking at all the things that broke right for the Yankees despite the injuries would have the team looking to improve at it's weakest spot, and that's starting pitching. If the Red Sox are more competitive and the Rays play well, the division isn't going to be easy.
Nolan
3:24
3/65 seems light for Ryu, if only because Arrieta got 3/75 coming off of a year in which he pitched only 168 innings with a 3.53/4.16 ERA/FIP.  But perhaps Arrieta is an outlier?  Or a cautionary note that Ryu *shouldn't* get 3/75?
Craig Edwards
3:26
Arrieta was coming off a much better body of work including a Cy Young award and I think that's why he got paid. His track record helped him land the deal in spite of a roughly average FA season.
Sale
3:26
Was that good news or bad news? Do I improve next year or does the shoulder and elbow combined really worry you?
Craig Edwards
3:29
Knowing he was already out for the year, it is good news, but this was the season where they were going to monitor him closely for a big push later in the year and then that never happened. No Tommy John is almost always better than Tommy John. Rest a while and hope that managing the innings plus more from the supporting cast can help him be a difference-make in October. It's possible the Red Sox ended up wasting some potentially good Sale innings by having him back off that might have them in contention right now. Playoff baseball isn't a given, even for a team as talented as the Red Sox.
JustCurious
3:29
Just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to do this chat.
Craig Edwards
3:29
Thank you for all the good questions. That will do it for this week. Until next time.
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