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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--8/27/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:03
Let's get things rolling.
Blue-Collar Tweeker
2:03
As a Cardinal fan, being on the receiving end of Matheny's bullpen handling last night was glorious.
Craig Edwards
2:07
I still feel bad for Rosenthal as he was pitching on back to back days, was a little gassed, and then after he pitched to too many batters, Matheny then took him out. I don't know how well or poorly Matheny is managing is Kansas City and it is probably going to be tough to tell this season, anyway, but last night didn't look great.
Guest
2:07
What the heck happened that Walker was potentially acquired for cash considerations ?
Craig Edwards
2:10
I think it is player to be named later going to Toronto, though cash considerations could end up being it. He's a free agent at the end of the season and he's pitched like a 4th-5th starter. There's not going to be much demand for players like that and we will probably see similar deals over the next few days.
Chris
2:10
Think Tai walker being traded for a ptbnl this early means the Mariners got something better than expected?
Why doesn't mlb allow ptbnl to be named and just make it so they can't join their new 60 man site?
Craig Edwards
2:12
I don't know about better than expected. It could be that the minor leaguer to be named is actually multiple minor leaguers that Seattle will get to choose from. I think the early deal is just Jerry getting ahead of things a bit and finding the only team in the AL who needs back-end rotation help to make the playoffs. I don't think it is a reflection on Seattle getting a good player back.
Guest
2:14
Any explanation for Alonso's power drop this year?  And how concerned should we be about it?
Craig Edwards
2:14
I wouldn't be overly concerned. He had stretches like this in late-April to mid-May as well as the month of July last year that looked a lot like this.
2:15
It's only a month.
Y I K E Mastrzemski
2:15
Should Yaz have been HM at least in your trade value series? He's older but his great approach seems to suggest that this production is real and he is under contract for a long time.
Craig Edwards
2:18
He does have a lot of team control, but those are years 30-35 so it is difficult to think he has a ton of staying power in terms of performance. He's still only been great for a month, and his walk and strikeout rates look great, statcast suggests he's more of a 125-130 wRC+ player than the 172 he's put up so far.
Doug
2:20
What happened to the 2019 NL rookies? Alonso, Reynolds, Hiura, and Paddack are all lost. Soroka is down with an ugly injury. Did Tatis steak all their mojo in the off-season?
Craig Edwards
2:23
let's start by saying it's only a month. Soroka's injury was a freakish thing. Alonso is still an above-average hitter. Reynolds is down a bit from expectations, but his BABIP was due for a fall from last season. Hiura's BABIP is the same deal and he's had k issues last season. Even then, Hiura is still putting up an average batting line. Paddack is a pitcher and he's just given up a bunch of homers in a short time. That should even out over the course of a long season.
Zaque
2:23
Where do you think Messi should go?
Craig Edwards
2:23
Leeds
Eli
2:24
Cy Young predictions?
Craig Edwards
2:24
Right now, it is Bieber and deGrom so it is hard to go against those two with only a month left.
alan giggs
2:24
Hi Craig! I came across some older statistics. Is the stat Marginal Lineup Value essentially the same as wRAA? IF not, are they close? And how about Equivalent Average and wOBA?
Craig Edwards
2:26
I think marginal lineup value used to go into VORP way back when and is likely based on similar thinking to wRAA though probably gets there in a different way. Equivalent average uses a simpler formula that isn't weighted as well as wOBA, and it is set to be similar to batting average as opposed to OBP like wOBA. They are similar, maybe you would call them precursors to what we use now.
Chris
2:27
Kyle Lewis is amazing!!
Craig Edwards
2:28
Seems like he got hot again for another 10-day stretch. The balls just keep dropping in.
Logan
2:29
Vlad Jr. is turning in a replacement-level season.  How long until we worry he is a bust?
Craig Edwards
2:31
He's got a 141 wRC+ in August. I'm not even sure he is busting right now. I think if he doesn't hit for a full season, or at least 2/3 of one, then you worry. He's still only 21 years old and there's a ton of untapped game power that he could get to and become a monster star.
FunFella13
2:32
If I am a slap-hitting speed guy, at the dish in a tie game bottom 9 2 outs, am I better off striking out and letting the guy behind me lead off b10 with me on second and zero outs, than trying to get on to let someone try with 2 outs?
Craig Edwards
2:36
Giving up an out seems like not a very good idea. The marginal gain is that there is a slightly better runner in extra innings, but at the plate with two outs, there's roughly a 7% chance of scoring and winning the game right then, which doesn't seem like it would be worth giving up.
Blue-Collar Tweeker
2:36
Dylan Carlson hasn't gotten off to a great start.  You think he's here to stay in St. Louis even if his on base woes continue?
Craig Edwards
2:39
I'm not sure why you'd pull the plug that quickly. By Statcast's numbers, he's been an average hitter, just hit into bad luck. He's got five walks in 55 PA which is just fine and his k-rate is below 30%. There's not really too much wrong with him right now.
B
2:39
It seems that teams have learned that having a deep infielder playing in the outfield grass can really improve defense against LHHs.  Should we expect that BABIP is going to shift away from .300 now, and if so, how low should we expect it to go?
Craig Edwards
2:41
That depends. If a lefty hitter knows that he has to hit the ball very hard to get a hit, maybe he strikes out more in order to make better contact with the ball and then BABIP isn't affected as much. It's a bunch of back and forth as pitchers and hitters adjust. Also, lefties take a smaller portion of plate appearances which reduces the effect they can create if they do have a lower BABIP.
Wolf
2:42
Let's say you're Alex Anthopoulos - what's your move at the trade deadline?
Craig Edwards
2:44
I'm not sure he needs to do anything, and Anderson's start certainly helps make that case, but Lance Lynn or Dylan Bundy would make some sense.
Kretin
2:45
What is a realistic return for Bundy if the Angels trade him?
Craig Edwards
2:47
It probably isn't going to be a lot. Maybe they can target someone who isn't getting an everyday type opportunity but could use a change of scenery, like how Boston got Nick Pivetta. While there will be a lot of teams interested in Bundy, few teams are going to give up much for a pending FA.
Blake
2:47
Will the Marlins make the playoffs?
Craig Edwards
2:48
Looks like 31% so I'll say no. Going to have a piece, probably tomorrow, about playoff odds and how to look at them this year.
Wheeler
2:48
What is up with Zack Wheeler's low K%? It doesn't appear his velocity has changed and he's been effective.
Craig Edwards
2:49
He's been using a sinker a lot more, which means more ground balls and potentially quicker outs, but also means fewer whiffs and strikeouts.
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