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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--8/29/2019
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Craig Edwards
2:03
I will be right there. Putting the finishing touches on a piece.
Quick plugs: The Royals potential sale and their tv deal. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rumored-royals-sale-would-rank-among-m...
2:04
Yoan Moncada's breakout season https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-quiet-breakout/
Matt
2:10
By pitch run values, The Astros have been nearly twice as good against sliders as the next leading team. Is that notable or noise?
Craig Edwards
2:11
Both, probably. The Astros have a lot of really good hitters so them being particularly good at some pitch is bound to happen. Whether they have some secret training method to identify sliders, I couldn't tell you, but I wouldn't put it past them either.
Mark
2:12
How much would a team actually trade for 2 years of a superstar like Lindor or Bryant at late arbitration salaries?
Craig Edwards
2:13
A ton. In the trade value series, Lindor was 13th and Bryant was 25th. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-1-to-10/
2:14
I would look at the JT Realmuto trade to get a pretty good idea of what those guys would go for and it would probably be a bit better than that.
Gil
2:15
This version of the Mets is who we thought they were when the season started right? Basically an also-ran that has a puncher's chance at a playoff spot but not a real contender.
Craig Edwards
2:15
Let's see. At the beginning of the season the Mets were projected for 83.8 wins. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-03-19&dateD...
2:17
Weird. So, yes, the Mets have done pretty much as expected. They were and are contenders for a playoff spot and needed a little more to go right than went wrong to make the playoffs.
Obvious Alias
2:17
If you knew that this year's HR/FB would be consistent for years to come would you prioritize outfield defense less?
Craig Edwards
2:18
If more hitters are trying to hit fly balls, then I might want to prioritize it more, particularly if there aren't a ton of ground ball pitchers I can counter with.
Eric Blair
2:18
Based on the timing of the trades they have made (Donaldson, Happ, Stroman, Sanchez, Pillar, Martin, Osuna etc.) and the returns they have received,  do you think that  Shapiro-Adkins are completely over matched by there peers.
Craig Edwards
2:22
Not based on the above, no. Trading a pre-injured Donaldson before the year might have been the safer bet, but giving it a shot in 2018 before a rebuild was probably the right choice. The Happ trade didn't seem too bad. The Sanchez trade seemed a little odd, though he's hurt now. They probably made the right choice about Osuna. The Stroman trade seems odd, but it isn't crazy to have prioritized pitching and taken the best offer out there. The real test for them begins this offseason as they need to supplement their MLB-level prospects with good players to try and win back the fans.
Ben
2:22
Bad outing after bad outing for Kimbrel. Too soon to worry?
Craig Edwards
2:23
Hard to know in such a small sample. He's obviously not the guy from two years ago, but his high-wire act might be good enough for the rest of the season. I'd be more worried about the innings before Kimbrel.
Tampa
2:24
The Rays were within .5 games of the Yankees before a mid-June series in the Bronx. They have played 11 games worse since then. They still have the best ERA in the AL. And the Yankees haven't played world-crushing baseball (though they've been very good). Is Tampa more the team until that point of the team that's basically .500 since then?
Craig Edwards
2:27
They've had a bunch of injuries since then, so over that time, sure, they are probably a .500ish team. The rest of the season, probably closer to the early-season team given all the moves they made at the trade deadline and getting some guys back from the IL.
lnswr
2:28
Is former position player Rowan Wick the Cubs' best reliever?
Craig Edwards
2:30
He's pitched the best, though it's not like he can go forever without giving up a homer. Phelps has been good so far and Ryan has been mostly good, but Wick being the best isn't the worst argument right now.
Cube Jockey
2:31
Do we ever see Alex Reyes pitch in another regular season game for the Cardinals?
Craig Edwards
2:31
I hope so, but it is looking more unlikely than likely at this point.
gashouse gorilla
2:31
How about a possible under-reported story line for the rest of the season? A player you think isn't getting enough attention, a team on verge of a breakout or collapse?
Craig Edwards
2:32
Might be interesting to see if Rendon could sneak his way into the NL MVP discussion.
Matt
2:34
Back in early  July, I wrote about my concerns regarding Vlad Jr’s launch angle. Now we are approaching 500PA and his launch angle against fastballs is 3 degrees. That is 269th of 275 players with 1000 pitches seen. At what point will my concerns of a Hosmer-ish profile be valid instead of being written off as “small sample/he’s 20”?
Craig Edwards
2:36
Maybe at some point next year, if he's actually not producing. Since his first 10 games, he's put up a 131 wRC+ and he's only 20 years old. If he can do that without putting the ball in the air much, pitchers are in some real trouble as he gets older and used to the league.
JustSomeGuy
2:36
How hot is Gabe Kapler's seat?
Craig Edwards
2:37
How hot does a seat get when Charlie Manual has been sitting in it all day long?
Gila Monster
2:38
Ryan McMahon has quietly had an excellent 2nd half. He has elite exit velocity and hard hit rates, but hit 51% grounders Any chance the Rockies work with him on elevating the ball and he reaches another level to join Arenado,Story, and Blackmon as a star?
Craig Edwards
2:40
The ball plus Colorado kills his overall numbers and the fact that he's not hitting it in the air means he's not actually taking full advantage of either. I would expect that's something he will work on, though he can't afford to strike out any more than he is or he simply won't be productive.
Gila Monster
2:41
What is an adequate sample size to get excited about a player's exit velocity?
Craig Edwards
2:42
One good swing, probably. If you want to look at an average or something, a month is probably plenty. There's a lot more than exit velocity to making a good hitter, though, as it doesn't consider strikeouts, which are pretty important in that context.
Kosch
2:43
Why to the Astros suck so much at base running?
Craig Edwards
2:45
Some of it is personnel. Alvarez, Gurriell, Stassi, Chirinos are all keeping their numbers low. Altuve's been hurt, but he's also not been a good runner in his career. Not sure what Bregman is up to.
Pd
2:46
With Harper’s and Machado’s performances this season, will this put an even bigger damper on high priced free agents?
Craig Edwards
2:47
I don't see why. For one, Harper and Machado were incredibly rare free agents so there isn't anybody like them available. If Rendon gets $250 million or something, Harper and Machado might still be relative bargains given their age.
Judge
2:47
Is Judge's elite defensive performance this year just an SSS or is he really a great defender? (Imagine if he could avoid being banged up for a few months a year.)
Craig Edwards
2:49
He certainly seems to be a very good fielder. He's got nearly 3,000 innings in right field and his numbers look very good by both DRS and UZR as well as outs above average. Unless there's some peculiarity with Judge and Yankees in right field, I'd say he's comfortably one of the better right fielders in the game.
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