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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--8/8/2019
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Craig Edwards
2:02
Working on finishing up a piece. Will be here in just a few minutes. Keep those questions coming.
brad
2:10
Craig, Can you describe in details how great Lance Lynn has been this year, how he actually has been unlucky, there fore it is 100% legit and how this is exactly how he pitched in 2012-2015 adjusted for more K's in today's game?  Thank you.
Craig Edwards
2:13
We talking about AL pitching WAR leader Lance Lynn? He's been great this season and his ERA keeps creeping down to get closer to his fantastic FIP. It's not like his performance is all FIP, either. BRef has Lynn second in the AL and BPro had him first last I checked. a 3.60 ERA in this environment playing in Texas is fantastic and CY Young worthy.
Just in case you want to catch up on Lynn. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lance-lynn-al-pitcher-war-leader/
2:14
I will also say that his cutter is a little better than it was in St. Louis which certainly helps, but he had stretches in St. Louis where it looked like he was about to break out into something like this, but injuries usually got in the way.
Pogo
2:16
Xander Bogaerts has been a -17 DRS shortstop with a defensive value of 5.3. DJ Lemahieu has been a neutral to positive DRS contributor with positional versatility worth 3 runs defensively. Why, when calculating WAR, would a bad shortstop be still more valuable than a quality utility infielder? Seems like you shouldn’t be punished for being an okay first baseman when filling in
Craig Edwards
2:17
Most of the answer lies in the fact that WAR here at FanGraphs uses UZR as opposed to DRS. UZR says Bogaerts has been mostly average at shortstop. I wouldn't get too worked up over single season defensive numbers. It takes a few years to get a real sense of how good a player is on defense anyway.
Rusty
2:18
Craig - I'm using Data Camp to hone my R and PYTHON skills. Which of the two would you say is most helpful in the baseball realm? Thanks so much!
Craig Edwards
2:19
I couldn't tell you which is more helpful. If you look through team employment postings that we have here on FanGraphs, many of them specify certain skills needed.
2:22
Overall, when thinking about skills that will be useful to a potential career in baseball, I would say ask yourself a question you don't know the answer to, then try to find out the answer. Someone has probably done the work before you so figure out how they did it. Keep asking yourself questions and then going about finding out the answers, teaching yourself or through a class the skills you need to find the answers. Learning something because you are curious about how it works is likely to be more worthwhile than learning something you think will be useful to someone else.
Dfan
2:23
What do you see as May's role with the Dodgers the rest of the season and playoffs?
Craig Edwards
2:24
I expect at some point he'll head to the bullpen and be a weapon in the playoffs. The Dodgers obviously disappointed at the trade deadline given their current bullpen, but they've pieced it together before and May might help them doing it again.
Dplyr
2:25
Who do you think is more likely to win the World Series: (1), the Astros or Dodgers, or (2), the field?
Craig Edwards
2:26
Our playoff odds think that's a pretty good bet with the Astros at 28.7 and the Dodgers at 16.9 for a total of 45.6 versus 54.4 for the field. GIve me one more team and I take them, but right now, I still lean field. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
Jason
2:27
Craig...Is Randy Arozarena for real, or do you think he's another Tommy Edman?  Two week hot stretch then back to being under a replacement player.  Thanks!
Craig Edwards
2:31
Last year, Arozarena bounced between Double-A and Triple-A and couldn't seem to get it together at the higher level. He's not old at 24, but it has taken him some time to advance. His skills are based on hitting the ball hard as he doesn't have that much power. He is one of a mess of outfielders the Cardinals have where we don't really know who is better than the other, which might lean toward the unknown and seeing what Arozarena can do.
pumpsie
2:32
Next year, Arizona has 9 guys on either expiring contracts or in their last year of arb-eligibility, the most in MLB. What do you think things will look like for the D-backs a year from now?
Craig Edwards
2:36
They have an interesting setup. Ray, Peralta, Lamb, and Walker are the main players so the club has a bunch of that dreaded playroll flexibility. I would expect the team to be a soft contender in the offseason, adding players who won't affect the long term too much so that they have a shot, but leave themselves a bit of an out and moving the pending FA at the deadline or offering the QO so that they can get back at it for 2021.
Norm
2:36
Ten years from now, will we be looking back and shaking our heads at how Hall of Famer Justin Verlander managed to finish 2nd in Cy Young voting to both Rick Porcello and Lance Lynn?
Craig Edwards
2:38
He's also finished second to Blake Snell and David Price. Winning once with potentially four second-place finishes is pretty crazy no matter who you lose to.
Dplyr
2:38
So you would take group (1) over the field if group (1) is the Astros, Dodgers, or Nationals? This would make the totals 50.2 versus 49.8.
Craig Edwards
2:38
That makes sense. Sure.
Sean
2:39
Zac Gallen looks like he has some really good upside. The fastball and changeup are both excellent pitches and he was using both his cutter and curveball very effectively last night. Where do you see his potential?
Craig Edwards
2:41
I think his potential is less in his upside and more in his floor. He's been missing bats, but walking a lot of guys too and his homers aren't going to stay this low forever. I think the strikeouts and walks will both get lower and he'll give up more homers, but should be a pretty reliable at least league average starter.
Jobu
2:41
How should Cardinal fans feel about Goldschmidt trade?
Craig Edwards
2:44
The trade was an objectively good one. They traded away a potentially good catcher and kept another similar catcher while moving a starting pitcher with reliever/innings concerns who wore down every year plus a low draft pick and lower-rated prospect. They received one of the best hitters in baseball, even if for just one season. Weaver started off well but has been hurt. Kelly looks exactly as advertised while Goldschmidt hasn't hit as well as he's been expected to. That's not awful.
2:45
That they then took all of the risk in an unnecessary extension that paid market value pricing, it is okay to feel a bit burned by that because it wasn't something they had to do.
Jobu
2:45
Why did the Marlins trade Zac Gallen?
Craig Edwards
2:49
They are shooting for upside. We could argue they are selling high on Gallen, who a year and a half ago was the third player in the Ozuna trade and getting Jazz Chisolm, whose status has dropped a bit, but it still considered one of the better prospects in baseball. Eric talked about this a bit in his piece on the trade, but the Marlins are looking for stars. Gallen isn't likely to be a star, but Chisolm could be and those are the types of players the Marlins are looking for. They just need a couple guys to get there and then it is on them to supplement those stars with a decent roster instead of doing wht they did a few years ago. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-marlins-declare-their-type/
tslammer
2:50
Am I expecting too much out of Eloy this year or do you see some holes in his batting that I should be wary of. Maybe just patience is needed.
Craig Edwards
2:51
He seems to be a bit streaky this season, which doesn't seem too unusual for a 22-year-old making his debut. Before he got hurt the last time, from May 22 through July 16, he hit 14 homers in 175 PA and had a 128 wRC+. He'll have a lot more periods like that in the future than the couple of slumps he's endured this season.
Texas
2:53
Are the Facebook/YouTube broadcasts working? Is baseball winning more fans?
Craig Edwards
2:55
The Youtube broadcasts seem better than Facebook. When we talk about whether it is working, MLB has a couple problems. One, is providing access to the game to young fans and 2) is getting young fans in the first place. Providing free games to the kids without cable (with internet access, which is another issue), serves to strengthen a potential fan whose parents might not have cable and putting the games on platforms kids use might make them more aware of the game generally, which is like advertising to a hard to reach group.
pumpsie
2:56
Everyone knew the Astros would 'fix' Sanchez by having him throw more four-seamers up in the zone. Right? Teams won't trade with Houston because they know that's what they will do. I'm sure the Blue Jays and Sanchez knew it, too, but they let him shake off the catcher any time he was asked. Why? Did Sanchez slow-play himself on to a contender for his last couple years before free agency?
Craig Edwards
2:57
Sanchez has always had some reliever risk, and been hurt for times as well which is going to make his performance pretty inconsistent. We can talk about the Astros fixing him, but take a look at Sanchez's last two starts with the Blue Jays. Maybe more teams should have been paying attention not to how Sanchez could be fixed, but to how well he was actually pitching at the time.
Ryan
2:58
How would you assign odds to teams in the NL Central on winning the division? FanGraphs currently gives the Cubs a 77.5% chance of winning the division which seems pretty high.
Craig Edwards
2:59
They've got a three-game lead with less than a third of the season to go and the best team on paper. Hard to know exactly how the bullpen might affect things or Contreras being out, but three out of four doesn't sound too out of the ordinary.
Chat Mapman
3:00
Which premium prospect regresses more, Hiura or Tatis?
Craig Edwards
3:02
Hiura is on a 4.8 WAR pace while Tatis is at 6.5. As a percentage of their current WAR, I think Hiura regresses more.
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