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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--8/8/2019
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Trevor
3:03
Is Bryce Harper just a solid, 3.0-3.5 WAR/year player at this point?  And if so, how should the Phillies feel about that contract?
Craig Edwards
3:04
He's still a 3.5-4.0 win player right now and that still looks pretty good for $25 million for the next five years. The eight years after that, probably not, it is hard to think he's not going to have a few really good season mixed in there that make him worth the total value of his contract given the way much of the salary is essentially deferred.
pumpsie
3:05
Completely agree on your Sanchez point. The Blue Jays and Astros both had their reasons, but when a trade seems light the questions should be about what the other 28 teams were NOT doing. And thanks so much for the chat!
Matt W
3:06
With McNeil suddenly showing some power, are we looking at a real star-level player here? Right now he's like vintage Altuve without the steals. Also just adopted a very good, very adorable puppy.
Craig Edwards
3:09
The puppy is no doubt a good dog, though I'm doubtful on McNeil's stardom. His ISO is .200 in the flyingest fly ball season (average for non-pitchers this year is .186). I think he's good, but more in a Whit Merrifield way than a Jose Altuve way.
Sean Sligo
3:09
Is there a general feeling among MLB team front offices the Astros are doing something sneaky or illegal when it comes to "fixing" pitchers or their approach in general? Seems to me all they're doing is what many major corporations have done for years. Using statistical analysis to project and initiate more profitable outcomes.
Craig Edwards
3:14
There's the whole substance on the fingers issue, but leaving that aside, everyone made too much of Justin Verlander's decline when he had still been a very good pitcher. Gerrit Cole had been injured, but was an ace not too far in the past. Wade Miley was "fixed" by the Brewers. Charlie Morton was pretty good before he was hurt. THe Astros definitely improve the pitchers that get into their organization, but teams that win tend to get a lot of attention for things they do well so we see a ton of attention placed on the Astros. It's not magic, they are just good at identifying pitchers with strengths that aren't being fully utlitized and have had their valued lowered. It's not easy or simple, but it isn't magic, either.
Matt
3:15
Jorge Soler has quietly cut his O-Swing% and SwgStk% to below league average since June. Is this a new approach? Can he be successful with the ability to hit a breaking ball?
Craig Edwards
3:15
Soler looked good before he got hurt last year so I think he can be successful, but defense is going to keep him from being more than 2-3 win player unless he turns into J.D. Martinez.
Blake M
3:16
Will the Cardinals make any front office changes after this season?
Craig Edwards
3:18
Nothing too big. I'm sure there will be some shuffling around like there already has been on the development and data side, but the team is competitive and is going to draw a ton of fans this season. There's going to be some people upset about the season if they miss the playoffs, but people were pretty upset last year and Paul Goldschmidt was enough to turn the public back toward the team. If they do miss the playoffs, I expect they'll need to make another similar move for next season, likely with a starting pitcher and that will be viewed as enough.
tan mom
3:19
do you think it's possible mozeliak looked at his roster and felt it really wasn't worth upgrading/trading for something?
Craig Edwards
3:19
I don't think that's possible. The team was in first place and deserved to be so. I think the team didn't want to get burned on a trade so they played it safe.
Matt
3:20
Is the new goal for team to just perennially contend and hope they luck into a WS title? Teams used to seem to push all their chips in to win a title, but the resulting barren farm system and bad contracts resulted in 1-2 years of being WS favorites before being forced to burn it to the ground and embarking on a 5-year rebuild. It seems like teams would rather consistently be a sustainable 90-win team by maintaining a farm system and avoiding albatross contacts. Fans keep coming to the park as their team is good enough to at least contend for a WC and maybe they over-perform into a WS(a team does it every year)
Craig Edwards
3:24
Just like two years ago, everyone was worried that with teams tanking and getting really good, teams would only want to try and win if they could get to 95 wins or more. Every team has a different calculus for what works for them. Some teams and franchises can undergo a hard rebuild/tanking phase that generally happens after a team has already been bad. Average teams don't often get dismantled to tank. I think if a team could be competitive every year, they would prefer that, but that's hard to do. I think the Red Sox are more or less fine with their average team and barren farm system given the results of last season. A franchise needs to do what it can to energize a fan base. For some, it is a big push. For others it is maintaining a competitive team. In the end, most of these moves and decisions are made in the offseason and the trade deadline doesn't have too much bearing on the situation, even if we like to think it does because it is happening now.
dude
3:24
Do you think that AI will eventually be able to evaluate baseball players better than any scout or analytics guy can?
Craig Edwards
3:25
Hrabosky? No way.
Ryan
3:26
Hi Craig, thanks for the chat. I enjoyed your Mike Trout article. Do you think Mike Trout helps us appreciate WAR more than WAR helps us appreciate Mike Trout?
Craig Edwards
3:26
Thanks. Here's that article. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-without-war/
3:29
I think that WAR helps us make a case that might be fairly obvious but isn't completely obvious. As to the question, I think it is the latter. It's hard to process just how much better Trout is than the rest of the league year in and year out. That he does it every year is amazing. No other stat really shows just how far ahead Mike Trout is to the rest of the game, and that's why it helps better understand the game and just how good Trout is among players all time.
Thanks for all the questions this week. Until next time.
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