You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--9/10/2020
powered byJotCast
Craig Edwards
2:03
Let's get things rolling.
Eric the Red
2:03
Are the Reds bad or unlucky?
Craig Edwards
2:04
Yes?
2:05
Pythag has them at the same record at 19-24 though BaseRuns has them at 22-21. That three-game differential is the third-biggest in baseball this year with only the Mets and Angels at -5 doing worse.
2:06
Desclafani not pitching well is a bummer, but the rest of the rotation is at or exceeding expectations.
There's nothing glaring on offense except for Votto.
2:07
Going into the season, the Reds looked like something close to a .500 team, maybe a little bit better. They've played pretty close to that and have a record that is slightly worse. The good news is that they are still very much in the playoff hunt.
muenstertruck
2:08
Matt Wieter's 19 pitch AB got me thinking about how you would value a hypothetical player who sees an average of 10+ pitches per AB. Even if that player had below average outcomes, you'd still want to slot him in - but how far below average could you go before the outcomes are an issue?
Craig Edwards
2:10
I think that player would be better as a pinch hitter. How much worse is a pitcher with 12 more pitches through twice in the order? I'm guessing it would be small and with the quality of bullpens the change wouldn't be that dramatic. You are talking about two fewer outs from the starter.
Guest
2:10
Keeper league question- how negatively does Dylan Carlson's 2020 performance affect his dynasty value?
Craig Edwards
2:12
I'm not sure about a keeper league, but I don't really see Carlson's performance this year really affecting his long term value. He's a 21-year-old rookie who was put into a strange situation, then got a bunch of bad results despite hitting the ball well, then got bad results that were deserved. I don't the think outlook has changed.
Jon
2:12
I'm trying to be patient but Vlad Jr.'s apparent lack of progress has me frustrated. What are your thoughts on his season?
Craig Edwards
2:14
He had a great August and has had a rough week to start September. He's hit more fly balls this month which could be nothing or it could be he's working on things. Sometimes it just takes time. He's still been an average hitter at just 21 years old, which is an accomplishment.
brad penny for your thoughts
2:14
is FG gonna do a Lou Brock article/retrospective?  Or did i miss one?
Craig Edwards
2:15
Yes. Likely tomorrow. I think Jay is working on it, though he's taken a few days off this week, hence the delay.
Dan's dry flavorless chili
2:15
Have you ever eaten Dan's chili? He talks a big game but frankly I am skeptical that it's any good.
Craig Edwards
2:15
No.
kyler murray
2:15
what would my stats be if I was in the big leagues this year?
Craig Edwards
2:15
Really, really bad, I would think.
v2micca
2:16
Freddie Freeman is on a tear lately.  Assuming he is able to stay healthy, is he on track to make the Hall of Fame, or is he one of those guys that is projected to fall short?
Craig Edwards
2:18
I don't think he's on track. Take a look at this leaderboard for first baseman through their age-30 seasons. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&...
2:19
He's right in the middle of a bunch of guys who are likely to fall short. That doesn't mean he can't make it. It means he needs to age better than most other players like him.
Overbearing Padre
2:20
Aside from the Dodgers, who should worry the Padres most in a three game series?
Craig Edwards
2:22
If we assume the Padres are going to end up with the fourth seed, that means they are going to play the second place team in either the central or the east. Right now, that's either St. Louis or Philadelphia. St. Louis has the better bullpen, and Philadelphia has the better offense. If you are worried about getting bounced right away, I think Nola-Wheeler is more worrisome than Flaherty-Wainwright and would lean toward the Phillies. That said, in a three-game series, every playoff team should worry you.
Phillip Mamoufwifarts
2:25
Given the small sample that will go with his season, do you think Bobby Dalbec will end the season with the biggest gap between average and OPS you've ever seen?
Craig Edwards
2:28
Maybe, but he's only got 35 plate appearances. Pretty sure there's plenty of fluctuation to be had between now and the end of the season. Historically, Gene Tenace was always a low average, high performance hitter. Mark McGwire's got a few pretty wild seasons as well.
Sodo Mojo
2:28
Marco Gonzales has dramatically lowered his walk rate while increasing his strike out rate by 20 percent this year.  If he can maintain those levels can he generate $100 million in surplus value over the course of his contract extension?
Craig Edwards
2:30
I suppose that's possible given he's only getting paid $30 million over the next four years, though his injury history is always concerning and a 2% walk rate really isn't sustainable. The homers might rise a bit, too.
Struggling fan
2:30
Craig, I have been struggling to get through to the relatives that I currently live with about the value of sabermetrics. It first clicked for me when I realized that OBP was 99% of the time much more valuable than AVG, a lack of broadcast teams espousing OBP has certainly made this harder. Would calling OBP what it actually is "Not making and out" Percentage make more sense somehow?
Craig Edwards
2:32
I think it is better categorize stats as doing something rather than not doing something. If your relatives like average, but can't get behind OBP, figure out why. Do they not think walks are important? What about doubles? Focus your efforts by finding agreement on what is important and then working toward stats that show those important things in the stats.
Isolated Thinker
2:33
How would a team covid outbreak be handled come playoff time?  Can't really stop everything and wait until the teams are cleared to play and schedule doubleheaders.  Would teams just be forced to use their taxi squad or would that not happen because of playoff competitiveness?
Craig Edwards
2:34
I really don't know. I think they would just have some sort of a delay and try to catch up. I don't think they want too much roster change.
Ari
2:35
What would you think the starting point for a conforto extension would look like?
Craig Edwards
2:37
He'll be 28 next year heading toward free agency heading into his age-29 season. If you start with a $12 M salary in arbitration next year, I think another five years and $100 million might get things started, though I think I might just roll the dice on both sides at this point.
Mike Hawk
2:37
Odds the Giants sneak into a WC spot and walk with a WS ring?  I mean, it IS an even year, yaknow?
Craig Edwards
2:38
Playoff odds have them at 2.6%, which seems kind of high, but I'll go with that. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
Scuffy Mcgee
2:39
Is Jurickson Profar nothing more than a utility guy at this point in his career?
Craig Edwards
2:41
I don't know. He's been pretty unlucky on batted balls this year. He's also somehow still only 27 years old. An above-average bat at second base would still make him a regular, particularly as teams fill second base later in their planning and look for discounts.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:41
How excited should we be by Randy Arozarena?
Load More Messages
Connecting…