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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--9/24/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:46
They might not be as advanced as they once were, but it is hard to say they are really falling behind as much as they are closer to the middle after being ahead. They still do a good job drafting and developing. Oh, Mikolas, and Kim all look like solid signings. They've continued to be competitive despite never drafting high or going through a rebuild. It's just a risk-averse organization and sometimes it takes those risks to get stars, and the Cardinals haven't had anyone like that in a while. Let's not forget they won the division just last year.
Pumpsie Green
2:46
Do you agree with Jay that Arenado and the Rockies are stuck with each other, or do you think a trade will be worked out?
Craig Edwards
2:47
I think that's most likely. He's got the opt-out after next year that absolutely tanks his trade value. The Rockies would have to eat a bunch of the future contract to make any deal possible.
bosoxforlife
2:47
Do you think that 2021 will open with full capacity in the stands?
Craig Edwards
2:48
I'm not hugely optimistic about that.
Guest
2:48
Dylan Carlson is a new hitter and does not get pumped with fastballs (no Cardinal does though)
Craig Edwards
2:49
He's somewhat unusual in that regard.
Rob
2:50
Will Ozuna be the most sought after RH power hitter this offseason? What will starting number be for interested teams?
Craig Edwards
2:51
That depends if you consider JT Realmuto a power hitter, I suppose. The FA market is hard to predict, but four years and 60M-80M seems likely.
bosoxforlife
2:52
Following up on my previous question. What will the free agent market look like without any certainty about fans and the effect on revenue and what might be the position of the MLBPA? How can there be negotiations under this cloud?
Craig Edwards
2:54
It will be difficult. This offseason was always going to be ugly with the FA available and teams tightening their budgets ahead of the CBA negotiations. Now, we are going to have a non-tender nightmare flooding the market with competent players. If it ends up that fans still can't attend games next season, there might be more negotiations though with a full season likely possible, I'm not sure the players are going to be too inclined to give up much, if anything ahead of the CBA ending. Owners will have more to lose if they hold up the season for some reason.
John S.
2:54
Which is a bigger offseason need for the fish? Hitting or bullpen?
Craig Edwards
2:55
Never bullpen for a team that is on the verge of contention. The bullpen is for teams who are already there. Hitters are a lot more predictable.
Guest
2:56
You just know 2-3 of the division winners are gonna lose in the first round and it's gonna make this whole postseason suck.
Craig Edwards
2:57
I think it will still be fun and give fans a chance to know players they might not otherwise. It also depends on which division winners lose. The AL has a great group of non-division winners while the NL doesn't.
Rob
2:58
How nasty do you except negotiations for the new CBA to get? There seems to be virtually no trust between the owners and the players right now. They'd be crazy to work themselves into another lockout, wouldn't they?
Craig Edwards
2:59
I think they will be bad. I wrote about why it won't look like this season at one point. Here it is. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/current-labor-strife-doesnt-mean-a-strike-...
Al
2:59
Is it realistic to expect Jesus Luzardo to pitch over 170 innings next year?
Craig Edwards
2:59
That's probably in the ballpark. I'd take the under, but if he were healthy the whole season, 170 seems like a reasonable figure.
Joe Don
3:00
Boom! You run the Rangers. Do you trade him or extend him?
Craig Edwards
3:01
I would extend him. I think there's a real opportunity right now for teams to sign players to contracts they might not otherwise be able to. I'm not sure teams see it the same way, though. Certainly the Dodgers, did.
3:03
And now my NL Cy Young piece is out there to read: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-national-league-cy-young-race-is-too-c...
3:04
I got a question about JT Brubaker I can't find right now, but I'll say that I worry batters will eventually lay off his pitches as so few are in the strike zone. He has good pitches, but command was always the concern.
Soto Shuffle
3:05
The Nats lineup today features Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes batting 3/4 - who has tanked harder, 2008 Nats or 2020 Nats?
Craig Edwards
3:06
Last year's Nats team was 24-32 after 56 games. This year's team is 23-33. The shortened season is a weird one.
bosoxforlife
3:06
Can the absolutely astounding number of star players hitting around the Mendoza line be attributable to the players seasonal rhythm being completely thrown off. There are currently 25 qualified hitters hitting under .220 including Yelich, Carlos Santana and Altuve. Do you think the balance is getting out of control?
Craig Edwards
3:07
I think the pitchers were more ready than the hitters to start the season because hitters have to react to something that is hard to practice against. I do think there's a bit of an imbalance going on right now that causes hitters to be even more power-conscious which leads to lower averages, but that's not really the hitters' fault. Unjuice the ball, shrink the strike zone, and expand and I think balance gets restored.
That's going to do it for me today. Thanks for all the questions.
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