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Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat--9/3/2020
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Craig Edwards
2:05
Going to let the queue fill up a bit before we get things rolling.
Nathalie
2:08
Good afternoon, Craig.
Craig Edwards
2:08
Okay. Now, let's get things rolling.
Guest
2:08
Lugo and stripling in trial by combat: who's falling out the moon door? Who do you like as potentially in rotation 2021
Craig Edwards
2:10
I don't think it will come to that, though I've always liked Stripling more than Lugo. It's hard to know when a player excels in a limited role, if it is the best role for them or if they could do better with more responsibility. Sending Stripling to the rotation full time probably makes his overall numbers (in a normal year) worse, but probably provides more value to a team that isn't as deep as the Dodgers, like Toronto.
JJ
2:10
Is there a more surprising player than Eric Hosmer right now? Dude is rocking a 164 wRC+ and has a double digit launch angle. Is this luck, player dev, or a bit of both?
Craig Edwards
2:13
and in an even year, no less. I'm sure there is some luck to this, but it isn't as if the talent wasn't always there to do something like this. Maybe it was two years in a row of not being a very good baseball player that caused some changes. It's hard to think that it is an accident, though.
Alice
2:13
Jo Adell should not be allowed to bat or field.
Craig Edwards
2:14
Counterpoint: Jo Adell should be allowed to bat and field as much as possible so as to help his development and reach his potential.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:14
Why is there always such an emphasis on intent in throwing at guys' heads? Does it really matter if Aroldis Chapman threw a 101 MPH projectile at Brosseau's head on purpose? If you almost maim someone, you should be tossed.
Craig Edwards
2:15
Both are bad. One is worse.
Chamaco
2:15
Have you read ESPN’s article on MiLB contraction and realignment? Not a good look for MLB...
Craig Edwards
2:18
I think the main issue with this plan is their is a deserving fundamental distrust in what MLB is trying to do. Framing it about efficiency instead of control misses the point, but even if it is about efficiency, there are huge aspects of developing the game long term that get thrown by the wayside. Given MLB's general disregard for the long-term at the expense of short-term profits, MLB is asking for trust in a massive overhaul that didn't have major issues beyond who the money was going to and not going to, and those issues are fairly easily solvable.
2:19
I wrote about the minors back in more normal times. Part I: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/untangling-a-minor-league-mess-part-i/
2:20
MLB is now using the pandemic to get whatever they want.
bill nye
2:20
if you remove a strip of breading all the way around a piece of fried chicken, is it a sandwich?
Craig Edwards
2:20
no
brett
2:20
Next 3 years: Karinchak or D. Williams?
Craig Edwards
2:22
I have no idea. Try and think back which pitchers you would have been talking about in 2017. I think Williams based on current performance.
Doug
2:22
The Dodgers might put up a .750 winning percentage. And yet their reward might be a 3 game series facing Gray-Bauer-Castillo and a 5 game series against the Padres just to get to the NLCS. Come on now 2020.
Craig Edwards
2:22
And if they make it through that, they will be deserving champions.
James
2:23
What do you make of Triston McKenzie's start?
Craig Edwards
2:24
He's doing great. The FIP at 3.13 is a better indicator of what he's done than the sub-2 ERA. It will be interesting to see if the league can do a bit more with his fastball once they've seen it more, but overall a very promising start.
*stros
2:25
Is Cristian Javier lucky or good?
Craig Edwards
2:26
There's a good amount of luck there so far, but the pitcher he is now isn't necessarily the pitcher he'll be as he continues to pitch. Batters are currently taking a lot of his pitches in the strike zone and that might not be the case moving forward.
Jimmy
2:27
Please rank these guys for 2021: Andrew Vaughn, J Kelenic, Lux, Royce Lewis
Craig Edwards
2:27
Lux, gap, then maybe Kelenic, Vaughn, Lewis, but it is hard to know who is going to actually be up so far away from the season.
Not Jake Cronenworth
2:28
Will Ohtani turn the corner at the plate soon? First he can't pitch, and now a sub .700 OPS, this is a downer
Craig Edwards
2:29
It's a bummer, though I think the hitting line is mostly small sample bad luck.
Guest
2:29
What factors go into how much leeway to give young hitting prospects that struggle out of the gate? Re: willie calhoun vs buxton vs brinson vs robles, all have real differing levels of optimism going forward
Craig Edwards
2:30
Some of it is contention level. Brinson got a ton of playing time when the Marlins were bad. There's also defense to consider when talking about Calhoun v Buxton and Robles. The latter two could still provide good value as players even if the bat wasn't there, but Calhoun can't do that, so he gets less leeway.
Snit
2:30
What will it take for me to stop running Ender out there?
Craig Edwards
2:32
A healthy team, for one. He didn't start at all over the weekend and only got starts this week with Acuna Jr. out.
Brendan
2:33
In 2015, the Pirates had a top 5 farm system with a good potential core of young talent including Glasnow, Josh Bell, Polanco, etc. Five years later, almost none of the prospects they've kept have panned out and the ones they've traded are looking like stars. What do you think went wrong there?
Craig Edwards
2:37
I'm not sure Bell was in quite same category as the others, though Meadows and Taillon were certainly part of that etc. Injuries to pitchers and batters certainly hurts, but Polanco wasn't that big of a prospect, he just got off to a great start. I would expect that if you looked at similar prospects at similar levels not on the Pirates, you'd probably find roughly similar production. Taillon has been considerably better than Glasgow. Polanco has done about what's expected while Meadows had all those injuries. Even going back to Gerrit Cole, he was very good with the Pirates for a while. It's not just about the prospects panning out or not, it's building a full team, and the Pirates haven't done that.
Grant
2:38
Is McKenzie's success partially on that occurrence of rookie pitchers dominating early because there isn't a detailed enough scouting report for hitters. Think Strasburg rookie year. Not saying he isn't good, but underlying data depicts success but not why.
Craig Edwards
2:39
McKenzie is a pretty rare case given he didn't pitch at all last season, and then there was just the alternate site to play at. We don't always notice all of the adjustments pitchers and batters are making against each other, but once hitters do adjust to someone they haven't seen before, the pitcher often adjusts back to keep up their previous level of success.
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