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Cubs Offseason Chat With Tim Dierkes
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Tim Dierkes
9:17
The market at the position is really weak, but the Cubs really just need a decent stopgap.  Kiermaier, Bellinger, Laureano...just someone to hold down the fort for a year until the kids are ready.  Prospects don't always work out that way, but I also don't think the Cubs should sign Nimmo.
Jake
9:18
What's the projections for money and years for Senga, and Cubs a strong team in the mix?
Tim Dierkes
9:18
Guys coming over from NPB are notoriously hard to predict.  I think we have 5/75 down at the moment, but we're not sure how teams view Senga yet.  I'd have to think the Cubs would be strongly in the mix here.
kenny
9:18
I thought cubs are close to abreu?
Tim Dierkes
9:19
I think that rumor has been blown out of proportion.  Teams aren't even talking to agents yet, and I doubt the Cubs are telegraphing interest all that much.
9:20
That said, before Bruce Levine reported it, I had Abreu mentioned in my offseason outlook post.  It's really just common sense: the Cubs have no first baseman, Abreu is the best one on the free agent market, and since he turns 36 in January, it's probably a two-year deal.
Here's a look at the free agent list by the way: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/2022-23-mlb-free-agents.html
Galvan316
9:20
There’s for some reason been “a lot” of Bieber/Cubs trade chatter lately, Is this for real or just some kind of speculation nonsense?
Tim Dierkes
9:21
Speculation nonsense, to which I contributed in my outlook post.  But at least, I think, clearly labeled as speculation.
9:22
Like Abreu, this is just a connecting the dots type thing.  Bieber has two years of control remaining, we project him for 10.7 mil in '23, and he'll get a raise on that in '24.  The Guardians have a history of successfully trading pitchers with this profile, so logically they may field offers for Bieber.
Ben
9:22
Should the Cubs acquire another catcher if Contreras leaves or is Gomes serviceable next year?
Tim Dierkes
9:23
Gomes as your primary catcher is pretty weak, but so is the free agent market.  I suppose they could trade for Sean Murphy.  But this does seem to be a conscious decision to be worse at catcher next year.
SouthpawJosh
9:23
Thanks for the time, Tim. Love the team specific chats. I’d like 2023 to be the equivalent of 2015. Might be a tall ask but if they can’t get a deGrom or Rodón, who is the best of the next level SP?
Tim Dierkes
9:24
Probably Senga.  A lot of the others I mentioned in my article are a step down from him.
Brett
9:24
Odds of resigning Contreras? What are the chances we sign Rodon to that 5 year contact (maybe with an opt out after year 3)?
Tim Dierkes
9:25
We've had years now of "the Cubs aren't re-signing Willson" vibes, so I'll take those reports as correct.  Nor can I see him accepting the qualifying offer.  I'll give a slim chance of a reunion in that if he surveys the market and hates the offers, and the Cubs come in at like 1/25 for a year in March, I suppose he could do that.
9:26
Signing Rodon to a hefty five-year contract would go against the "intelligent spending" stuff Jed has been saying the last two offseasons.  It's not something I expect to happen.  However, Rodon may be the best starting pitcher who is available to the Cubs, so they shouldn't rule him out early.
Medic Mike
9:26
Why not keep Madrigal at second and trade Nico in the chance that we get one of the four short stops? It would hurt more to lose Nico, but he could be used in a trade to bring in a pitcher?
Tim Dierkes
9:27
Keeping the much worse, less-established player and trading the breakout seems unwise if you're trying to win.  I believe the Cubs when they say they want to extend Nico.
GeeDubU
9:27
Does Brennan Davis figure prominently?
Tim Dierkes
9:28
I don't think anyone knows how much time he needs to fully recover from back surgery.  I haven't been following the AFL closely but seems like he's looking fine there.  I think if he's 100% he has a chance to make the team out of camp next year.
Guest
9:28
I like Thompson in middle relief but wouldn’t you rather he continues to start and Alozay is middle relief?
Tim Dierkes
9:29
They gave Keegan Thompson 17 starts, and he had a 10.7 K-BB% and 4.83 ERA in that role.  Maybe something about trying to go three innings instead of five helped things click for him.  Or maybe it's all a fluke.
Ryan
9:29
Do you buy the narrative that taking a subpar trade offer for Contreras at the deadline would have negatively affected what teams were willing to offer for their future trade chips?
Tim Dierkes
9:30
I do not; I think each trade negotation is its own thing.  Teams must really not like Willson, and/or really hate changing starting catchers in the middle of a season.  If it's the former, he might struggle to get what he wants as a free agent.
Guest
9:30
I don't think any of the big SS are worth it at the expected cost of 35+ million. Wrong of me or just have to adjust to these excessive salaries are part of the future.
Tim Dierkes
9:32
I do think it's time to make an adjustment and acknowledge that salaries will continue to rise, especially with a new CBA in place and expanded playoffs.  $35 mil is still pretty hefty right now.  But 30 mil, there have been 20 such contracts to this point: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/the-largest-mlb-contracts-by-aa...
35 mil, though, that's only happened five times.  Judge will join that club, and it's at least possible for Correa and Trea.
Tom’s Money
9:33
Gonna go pitching and say they lock down Rich Hill on a ten year deal, I know that last year at age 52 will look bad on paper but isn’t it always the case?
Tim Dierkes
9:33
It is about time for a Rich Hill reunion at Wrigley.
EDB
9:33
QO for Contreras and let him walk if he doesn’t take it?
Tim Dierkes
9:33
That is very much the plan, and I don't think they expect him to take it.  I don't.
Steve Trout
9:33
Please tell me the Cubs aren't actually interested in Jose Abreu!
Tim Dierkes
9:34
Why wouldn't they be?  He just outhit everyone on their team by a wide margin.  And if they sign him, they don't have to give up a draft pick and Abreu doesn't have to move.
John szy
9:34
Not sure why you would feel the rebuild ‘should be over’?  Although I do believe Ricketts cares more about making money than producing a winning team, it is obvious what they are trying to do. They are trying to come up with sustainable success. They have a strong group of OFers on the doorstep. Their group of young Ps is very promising. Seems to me the only thing missing is Ricketts ‘intelligent investment’.
Tim Dierkes
9:36
It should be over because teams in the biggest markets shouldn't have to punt this many seasons.  Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cardinals don't actually do rebuilds.  The Cubs have been full-blown rebuilding in the following seasons: 2012, 2013, 2014, 2021, 2022.  If you add 2023, that's six rebuild seasons within a 12-year span.  Why is that OK?  Because they are bad at drafting?
Tim Stoddard
9:36
Is Bogaerts dead set on playing SS, or do you think he'd move to 2B or 3B? Might be a nice target for the Cubs if he's flexible on position.
Tim Dierkes
9:37
I think that is an impediment to any team signing Bogaerts - how insistent is he on sticking at SS?  His defense improved there this year, but many teams will not see him as a long-term SS.  Trevor Story had never played anywhere else, but moving off SS is something he needed to do to get paid, so Xander might end up doing the same.
Andrew Man
9:37
Which frontline starting pitcher should the CUbs go after if they choose to spend the money?
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