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D1Baseball Top 25 Chat: April 1
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Heel
1:29
Early thoughts on the UNC-GT series this weekend?
Aaron Fitt
1:29
I think that's a compelling matchup. Georgia Tech is clearly much better than it was a year ago, a bona fide regional team that has the talent to make noise in the postseason, and they're on a pretty good roll right now. UNC has found its stride since that Clemson weekend, though Mike Fox said this weekend that he still thinks his lineup is a work in progress. Tech is the more explosive offensive team, but I think they match up pretty evenly in the rotation. I'd give UNC the edge in the bullpen -- loved what I saw out of Joey Lancellotti on Saturday, that was a big development for the Heels. Lancellotti, Austin Love and Caden O'Brien should be one of the best bullpen trios in the ACC in the second half.
Chad
1:31
How about the week from Oklahoma State!?! Beating top 25 Oklahoma and winning a big series on the road vs top 25 TCU.  Seems like Holliday make have Oklahoma State heading in the right direction.
Aaron Fitt
1:31
Yep, this is what I expected out of Oklahoma State heading into the season -- powerful lineup and a deep pitching staff. Think the Cowboys are very legit candidates to make a run at the Big 12 title.
Carson
1:32
What do you make of the Miami pitching staff's struggles? McMahon has an ERA north of 5, McKendry has struggled to find consistency and the bullpen outside of Veilz has been a mixed bag. Is this just a rough patch or is there legit concern with this staff?
Kendall Rogers
1:32
Carson -- It's weird, because both McKendry and McMahon were terrific the second week of the season against Florida, so it's weird to see them struggling so much on the bump. Those two in particularly have it in them -- but they better get rolling if the Canes want to have a resume that warrants a postseason appearance at the end of the season.
Chris
1:32
Just to understand the ranking process, how does a 2-2 (week) Georgia loose 2 unranked games and 2-2 MSU looses two ranked games one stays put and the other drops 6 spots. I get the drop I don't get the Georgia stays put. No criticism, just wondering the process.
Aaron Fitt
1:32
We have always placed more value on weekend series than midweek games. Georgia won a conference road series, and Mississippi State lost a home series, albeit against a better opponent. And there was a logjam of very good teams with great resumés that had strong weeks right behind MSU in the rankings, so they fell a few spots more than they otherwise might have. But you almost always hold your ground in the rankings if you win your weekend series, as long as you don't have a losing week overall (and Georgia did not have a losing week, just a .500 week).
Daniel
1:35
After a few tough luck losses at Minnesota, how would you characterize Nebraska's chances at winning the Big Ten? Making the Tournament? Thanks!
Aaron Fitt
1:35
I'd say Nebraska has a shot to make a run at the Big Ten title, but I'd put the Huskers in the second tier behind Michigan, Indiana and Minnesota based on the combination of talent and current position in the standings. I like Illinois' talent too but it's tougher to bet on them after starting out 0-3 in conference. One thing about the Huskers is they played a strong nonconference schedule so they're in pretty good RPI shape right now despite a modest 13-9 record. And even in a series loss this weekend, the Huskers pitched pretty well, so I don't see any cause to worry too much about them. Minnesota was a projected regional team heading into the year, and it's starting to find its footing after a rough start -- no shame in dropping two of three to those guys.
Robert
1:36
A&M had a rough weekend losing 3 every day starters to some pretty nasty injuries, especially with Coleman at first base who was finally starting to come around at the plate. How do you see this impacting the Aggies moving forward?
Kendall Rogers
1:36
Robert -- It sounds like the Aggie should get Hoehner and Blaum back this weekend against LSU, but we'll see. Blaum has a deep bruise in his foot, so that one is a little trickier. As for Coleman, he's out 5-6 weeks, and though his numbers weren't great, he was starting to come into his own a little bit from an offensive standpoint. He also is a very good defender over at first. The Aggies can get the LSU series without Coleman, IMO, but without all three? I'd be a little surprised. We'll see who plays this weekend.
Jon
1:38
UC Santa Barbara is still not ranked despite opening BW play with a series win at Cal State Fullerton.  What else must they do to finally crack the top-25?
Aaron Fitt
1:38
We hated to leave out UCSB and Baylor this weekend -- we even joked about doing a top 27 this week instead of a top 25, because all those teams were deserving of rankings. But for UCSB, they just don't have a signature series win against a projected regional team right now. Fullerton has a big name, but right now those guys have a losing record overall, so winning that series doesn't carry as much weight as it used to. Anyway, the Gauchos are knocking on the door, and if they keep on winning their weekends they'll be in the Top 25 very soon. Obviously they're a slam dunk to be ranked if they win the Irvine series in two weeks.
GoNoles
1:42
After losing 2 out of 3 to Boston College, FSU is now 18-9 (6-6) with a SOS of 190 and RPI of 90 with weekend series against Pitt and Richmond still on the schedule. Is there a possibility that they don't make a regional?! How vital is this weekend's series at Miami?
Kendall Rogers
1:42
GoNoles -- Aaron and I were talking about it last night. It's still very early, but sitting at .500 in the league with an RPI of 90 -- the Noles absolutely need to get in gear in the league to get that RPI up. Any additional slip ups on the weekend could spell some serious trouble for the Noles. It's hard to imagine the Noles missing the postseason, but it's possible.
Chip
1:45
The Stanford vs UCLA game this weekend offers a lot of interesting statistical comparisons.  PITCHING wise, Stanford has a 2.47 ERA and UCLA has 2.60.  Both teams have a K:BB ratio of 3:1.  Stanford has only allowed 4 HR against vs UCLA's 15 HR.  FIELDING wise Stanford has a .981 FPCT and UCLA has a 9.79 FPCT.  Stanford pitching and defense seems to allow a lot less WP, PB, HBP, & SB.  Stanford's catcher has only allowed 2 of 6 SB attempts in 19 games.
UCLA will have to hit will to mover runners around as Stanford won't move the runners for them.  HITTING wise, Stanford is 0.266 AVG and UCLA is .275.  UCLA strikes out a bit more than Stanford. Both teams like to run. (See defense comments above).  UCLA has more HR and 3Bs but those are harder to come by at Sunken Diamond.  PLAYERS ...  both Stanford and UCLA are loaded with front line talent.  What does D1 see as the ket factors to this weekends series besides the winning team scoring more runs than the other guy?
Aaron Fitt
1:45
Good breakdown, Chip. That's a very evenly matched series that really could go either way. One thing that's interesting is both teams have some big-name, big-talent stars that got off to slow first halves, so I'll be keeping a close eye on Toglia, Strumpf and McLain for UCLA, and Daschbach, Stowers and Tawa for Stanford. The three Stanford guys, in particular, had big weekends this past week, so maybe they're turning the corner. I'll be on the Farm for that series, and I'm fired up for it.
Sleepless in Hattiesburg
1:45
Should USM fans be worried about our at-large resume after another bad series loss? RPI of 45 and a 1-4 top 50 record aren’t especially good marks. Plus our remaining schedule is rough from an RPI perspective.
Kendall Rogers
1:45
I think USM is the best team in the league, but there's not a lot of margin for error the rest of the season. Why, you ask? The Golden Eagles have an RPI in the mid 40s and the best weekend opponent the rest of the season from an RPI standpoint? FAU at 91. Not optimal if you want to have a high RPI in May. That league has been shockingly rough this year.
Sully
1:46
We all know Arizona State might be the best hitting team in the country but do they have the arms to win the PAC 12? It seems like UCLA and Stanford both have tremendous pitching.
Aaron Fitt
1:46
You're right, ASU definitely can't match UCLA, Stanford and Oregon State when it comes to arms, but that offense is just ferocious, and might well be good enough to carry the Sun Devils to the conference crown. I can't wait to see how those ASU hitters do in the upcoming matchups against those three elite pitching clubs. The top of the Pac-12 is so compelling, I think it's a wide open race between those four teams.
Tucker
1:51
Believe I saw one of you tweet the midesesson Nerdcast is coming this week?  Related to that thoughts on where the ACC is trending from a resumes standpoint?  Feels like up to 10 regional caliber teams but there’s an RPI problem with FSU, UVA above 90 and the highest team being NC State at 12.
Kendall Rogers
1:51
You're right about there being an RPI problem. The league has six likely postseason teams right now and UVA/Notre Dame/Boston College/FSU all have serious warts in the resume. Va. Tech is 45 with a 16-12 record, but it's hard to predict those guys finishing ultra strong and in at-large territory.
AT
1:53
Do you think the rule for HBP should stay in affect or be changed back to a ball is a ball and a HBP is a HBP and a ball in the box not swung at should never be a strike... with players momentum in stride it is difficult to freeze on a ball hitting you, difficult to be ready to hit on inside pitch, difficult to avoid being hit with your stride moving towards pitcher?
Kendall Rogers
1:53
The way I would have the rule is if the ball goes into the batter's box, it should never be called a strike no matter what the hitter does. If the ball goes between the white lines in the two boxes and the hitter leans over, call it a strike every time.
Aaron Fitt
1:56
I would rather just go back to the way the rule was before -- if it's a ball but the hitter leaned into it, just call it a ball but make the hitter stay in the box. I don't care if it's over the white line, if it's a ball it should still be a ball, just don't give the hitter first base. The rule was just fine before, there was not an epidemic of players leaning into pitches -- that was fixed years ago, after the 2007 CWS craziness. Why they came up with this awful rule to address a non-existent problem is beyond me. But I can't stand the notion of rewarding a pitcher with a strike for throwing a ball into the batter's box, even if the hitter did lean into it.
Mike
1:54
Hey guys, if Indiana State or DBU find themselves with 40 wins at the end of the season, do you realistically think that either one has a shot at hosting? The Valley is hurt with the season Missouri State is having, but Valpo is the only truly awful RPI right now.
Aaron Fitt
1:54
Interesting notion here -- the Valley has gotten hosts before, and I could see it happening again this year if one of those teams keeps on winning the way they both have in the first half. Both in the 30s in the RPI right now, so will need to jump 20 spots or so to host, but you make a good point that it's helpful that four MVC teams are currently inside the top 100. Of course, one of those teams is Missouri State, but nobody will get an RPI benefit by playing them, because they're just 7-19 overall, and opponents' winning percentage is 50 percent of the RPI formula. Anyway, ultimately my guess is no, the Valley probably won't have a host -- but it's definitely a possibility.
Scott
1:58
With adley getting walked almost at every at bat lately is this going to hurt his draft standing? Also in a stacked pac 12, if Oregon State were to finish in a 4th spot, would you think they would still host? Know it's early but with this many teams battling it out, how realistic is it 4 or 5 teams would host?
Aaron Fitt
1:58
The walks don't hurt his draft stock in the least -- all elite college hitters have to deal with being pitched around, from Anthony Rendon to Kris Bryant to Seth Beer to Rutschman. It's a credit to all those guys that they took their walks, didn't go chasing, and still did damage when given the chance. As for the hosting thing -- yes, right now I'd be very surprised if all four of those top Pac-12 teams don't wind up hosting. They're all legit.
Aaron Fitt
1:59
All right guys, that's it for me today. Great questions, as usual! Have a great week.
Jack
1:59
The Cougars continue to rake! If BYU takes a sweep against USD this weekend, do they earn a spot in your rankings?
Kendall Rogers
1:59
Jack -- BYU was at least on my board this week (though behind several teams). But a series sweep against USD this weekend would make them 24-5 with a strong RPI -- meaning certainly worthy of being considered for the Top 25. Brock Hale has been really impressive for the Cougars with his BB:SO ratio and overall power numbers.
Rob
2:02
Thoughts on the Gauchos series win vs Fullerton and the Big-West in general?
Kendall Rogers
2:02
Rob -- I liked the way the Gauchos traded blows with the Titans and ultimately won the series. UCSB was rolling in the second game, lost it in the latter innings, and then came back on Sunday and won a big-time bout. That told me something about those guys. As for the Big West in general, UCSB and UC Irvine are looking good for the postseason at the moment, while CSF needs to finish strong.
Hunter
2:04
Thoughts on Mississippi state? Do you see them as a national seed when it’s said and done? Middle infield defense, bullpen are major concerns.
Kendall Rogers
2:04
Hunter -- Not sure about MSU as a national seed if the season ended today, but I think they could be by season's end. RPI isn't favorable at the moment. WTS -- the one thing that does concern me about this team is its tendency to struggle on Sundays. They needed the offense to go wild on Sunday against Auburn, they lost the finale to Florida and they struggled in the finale against LSU. That's a trend and it needs to be rectified, IMO.
Kendall Rogers
2:10
All right guys -- that's all the time we have today -- but if you love D1Baseball, be sure to support us by subscribing today! http://www.d1baseball.com/subscribe
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