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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 10
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Jack
1:01
Did Texas Tech blow their chances of hosting a regional by dropping a game to NDSU last weekend because of what that does to their RPI? Or did they not have a chance before that? If they do have a chance, what do they need to do?
Kendall Rogers
1:01
Jack -- Probably. Texas Tech isn't without a shot to host, but even if it won the Big 12 Conference crown, it could be like TCU last season, which went on the road to College Station because of an iffy RPI. Right now, Tech would need to win the rest of its games to finish in the Top 16, and would need a hellacious finish to end the year in the Top 25-30. Is it doable? Yep. Likely? Probably not unless you project Tech to go scorched Earth the rest of the wya.
DDwag
1:03
Since the USC Trojans play every remaining conference series against a team ahead of them in the RPI to my knowledge, do you think they could be a regional host or is the cap to much to overcome?
Kendall Rogers
1:03
USC is pretty much in the same boat as Texas Tech for me. Even with a strong finish and the Pac-12 regular season crown, I don't really see the RPI getting where it needs to be to host. UCLA hosted with an RPI back in the 30s back in the day, but that was well before they seeded 1-16 for the regional hosts. USC would pretty much need to go scorched Earth like Tech to host the rest of the way.
TxAg17
1:04
Aggie baseball trending up?
Kendall Rogers
1:04
TXAG17 -- Definitely trending up. The pitching staff is still a massive concern for me. There's not a lot of consistency there, but the offense is finding its stride with the return of OF Brett Minnich. He has been a game changer, and it seems like the rest of the offense is coming together around him. I might be totally wrong on this, but it's hard for me to believe that Nate Yeskie won't figure out that staff at some point.
Kevin R.
1:05
Assuming LSU can navigate yet another Top 10 team (at home) and go 2-1 vs UK; they'll be 9-5 and finish the SEC season with Ole Miss, Bama, Auburn, Miss State, and UGA. Given those final 5 opponents, are they your pick to win the SEC or are you picking the field?
Aaron Fitt
1:05
I like how you lay that out, Kevin. LSU definitely has a more favorable remaining schedule than Arkansas, so I do like the Tigers to win the West. And even though Vandy has a 3.5 game edge in the overall standings over LSU, I feel like Vandy's remaining schedule is much more difficult. Still, I think I'll take the field... but it's close.
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Big12Fan
1:07
The Big 12 seems like it’s down this year so far. How many regional hosts do you see out of that league and who do you think has the best shot to win the title/host?
Aaron Fitt
1:07
It does feel like the Big 12 lacks a true elite team right now. We keep thinking Oklahoma State will emerge as that team, and then the Cowboys keep getting dragged back to the pack. I think the Big 12 has a few very good teams, but it cannot match the SEC and ACC for top-end contenders. Feels like right now Texas and OK State are in solid shape to host, with TCU in the mix... but if I had to predict today, I'd say the Big 12 winds up with just two hosts.
GeoDawg
1:08
With FGCU's rpi issue, could they realistically go the rest of the season without losing a series, fail to win their conference tourney, and miss out on the post-season despite being ranking in the top 15?
Kendall Rogers
1:08
I think if FGCU keeps winning, it will find itself in the NCAA tournament. That RPI would probably get into the high 30s/low40s, which would be comfortable territory for a mid-major. With that said, they don't have a lot of margin for error the rest of the way. That FSU series win, which seemed huge at the time, is now a total wash because of how cruddy FSU has been. FGCU needs the Seminoles to wake up down the stretch.
Mike
1:11
I read Sorenson's Rivalry Series (no longer called Civil War) update. He raved about Oregon's pitching and mostly focused on the Ducks. Turns out, the Beavers ended up with the better bats and pitching over the weekend. I'm having a hard time figuring out this Beaver's team. An error (wrongfully tallied by the home field scorer), gave the Ducks their only 2 runs on Friday night, the Ducks were mostly silent aside from that.
Kendall Rogers
1:11
The Beavers are definitely a tough team to figure out, but I will say this, I think getting two rival teams in back-to-back weeks actually helped this team dial things in a little bit. I love the fact the Beavs lost a close game, won a close game and then dominated the series finale against the Ducks. I think I like OSU at home against USC this weekend, too. The Beavs are definitely trending the right direction right now.
Julian
1:11
Shame on y'all for calling the Elon Phoenix a surprise team. Did you forget that the Phoenix will always rise from the ashes? Either way, Elon is a projected No. 2 seed sitting at #26 in the RPI (dropped from 19), in first place in the CAA with a series split this weekend vs UNCW and a series win vs Northeastern + wins vs RPI #1 Kentucky, D1 #2 Wake Forest and NC State. How far away is this team from the regional hosting conversation? How close are they to locking up an at-large?
Aaron Fitt
1:11
I see what you did there, Julian! Yes, Elon has a nice resumé right now — if the season ended today, that's a no-doubt at-large team, not too far out of the regional hosting discussion. Ultimately I don't expect their RPI to finish in the top 20, which is where it realistically would need to be for them to have a shot to host, but I could see them holding onto that regional 2-seed line. As far as locking up an at-large, history has shown that teams in conferences like the CAA have little margin for error; they need to be inside the top 40 and win the regular season to really feel confident. And even that is no guarantee; poor Wofford won its league last year and had a No. 37 RPI and still got snubbed. Life is tough for mid-majors.
Guest
1:12
What do you see as the floor and the ceiling for ECU’s Season.
Aaron Fitt
1:12
Floor is winning the American and being a regional No. 2 seed. I'll be shocked if anybody other than the Pirates wins that league, and if ECU winds up as anything less than a 2-seed. Ceiling is a trip to Omaha. By god, it's going to happen one of these years! This team definitely has the front-line pitching and the pitching depth to do it. It's just a matter of peaking at the right time in June.
Steven
1:17
If you had to pick one of the Mississippi SEC teams to claw their way into a regional, which one would it be?
Aaron Fitt
1:17
I think Ole Miss has the more manageable remaining schedule. It's hard to have too much faith in either one of these teams, but both of them do have talent in the lineup... could see one of these offenses getting and staying hot. I'm not betting on either one, but if I had to pick one, I suppose I'd take the Rebs based on schedule.
Spencer
1:20
Outside of 1 bad inning that cost them game two, South Carolina completely controlled the series vs. LSU. If they win the Vandy series this weekend could we see them jump up to #1?
Aaron Fitt
1:20
I could see that happening — if LSU loses its series to Kentucky. If LSU doesn't lose a series, we're not going to drop the Tigers out of No. 1, and it doesn't matter what anybody behind them does. And you're right, South Carolina should have won that series this past weekend -- but it didn't. LSU found a way to win a tough game on the road against a top-10 opponent to split the series, and LSU deserves credit for that, just as much as South Carolina deserves credit for ALMOST winning the series.
Spencer
1:22
Any conversations around Ethan Petry for not only Freshman of the Year, but Player of the Year? Stat wise he leads Dylan Crews in HRs and RBIs…
Aaron Fitt
1:22
But Crews is well ahead in OPS (1.528 vs. 1.380), and Crews plays elite defense at a premium up-the-middle position. Clearly Petry is the front-runner for national Freshman of the Year, and he's not TOO far back in the national POY race, but clearly it's still Dylan Crews' award to lose.
PFT
1:24
LMU Has a 2 game lead in the WCC and a big home series vs. Gonzaga this weekend.. if they win the conference outright, do you see them getting an at-large bid regardless of what happens in the WCC tournament?f
Aaron Fitt
1:24
There's a chance -- LMU is currently No. 47 in the RPI, and if they can finish the season in that range, they've definitely got a shot at an at-large bid, assuming they win the WCC regular season. But historically the committee has not been kind to WCC bubble teams, even when they win the regular season and have RPIs around the top 50 or so. I have long argued in favor of those teams getting bids, but they seldom get the benefit of the doubt from the committee, unfortunately.
Charlie
1:26
What is impacting North Carolina's RPI right now? Is it the cancellation of the two Pitt games? Not having a ton of marquee victories? The only bad loss is against Seton Hall on Opening Day. Otherwise, the other 9 losses aren't bad.
Aaron Fitt
1:26
UNC has played 9 games teams outside the top 200 in the RPI, and another 6 against teams 101-200. Even though they are 14-1 in those games, simply playing so many teams against lower-tier teams hurts their RPI. Even so, they're not in terrible shape at No. 25.
WC_Drew
1:28
Who is the best team in the Big West?
Aaron Fitt
1:28
I think at this point we have to go with Fullerton, don't we? I was pretty convinced the answer was UCSB, but the Titans just won that head-to-head, and the Titans have won 6 straight series, including a set against Texas and a road series at UC Irvine. I think the body of work is just too loud to ignore -- I'm prepared to make that change. Fullerton is the pick.
cool 1
Dale1
1:30
How much weight are we putting on this texas tech Stanford mid week 3 game matchup?
Kendall Rogers
1:30
It's actually a pretty important midweek for Texas Tech given the reasons I listed earlier about the iffy RPI. Tech needs to make sure it gets one of those games from an RPI and resume standpoint.
SEC
1:32
Thoughts on South Carolina in the top teams conversation after their showing against LSU?
Kendall Rogers
1:32
I like this question. So, I had a South Carolina fan pose the question to me earlier today on Twitter that SC should be ahead of all the teams ahead of them. I actually think there's a strong case to be ahead of Arkansas when you compare resumes, but I don't feel the same way compared to the other contenders just yet. Vanderbilt, for instance, played a great non-conference schedule and has something like 17 wins vs. Top 50 RPI teams. WTS -- SC would have a more than strong case to be No. 1 or No. 2 in the country with a series win over Vandy this weekend, IMO. I've loved what I've seen from SC so far this season.
CaryRasband
1:34
Two weekends ago, projected top-five MLB draft prospect Jacob Wilson of GCU went down in the Saturday game of the series at UVU.   He was hit by the pitch in the hand, and went down screaming in pain.  He stayed down for seemed like about 10 minutes.  He hasn't played since.   You can't find any information that even acknowledges an injury.
Aaron Fitt
1:34
As Kendall tweeted last week, Wilson should be back this week.
TheFanatic
1:36
Does the FunBelt still have a punchers chance at bringing 3-4 teams into the post season?
Kendall Rogers
1:36
I think three teams is pretty much a given for the Sun Belt right now with an option for a fourth or fifth team. I feel pretty good about Southern Miss, ODU and Coastal Carolina right now. I think a fourth team will emerge the second half of the season well.
Birdman
1:38
Big series win for Louisville this past weekend vs BC . Series this weekend against Wake looming big now - do Cards have the horses to compete with Wake for supremacy in Atlantic division of ACC ?
Aaron Fitt
1:38
I don't see anybody catching Wake, given its current cushion in the standings -- but I do believe Louisville is one of the ACC's legitimate Omaha contenders, and it wouldn't shock me if the Cards were to take that series against the Deacs, particularly if Nick Kurtz and Adam Cecere remain sidelined. Sounds like they may or may not be back in time for that series, per Wake's outstanding beat reporter Les Johns.
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