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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 14
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Aaron Fitt
12:05
Hey everybody, Kendall will be along in a bit to take us home, but once again I'll be your opener today. Let's dive in.
Eric Simmons
12:07
Is Texas A&M back in the NCAA Tournament discussion after a sweep of South Carolina? I think so!
Aaron Fitt
12:07
Hi Eric -- the Aggies are definitely back in the discussion after finding a way to take that series at Tennessee and then doing what they really needed to do this weekend, which was sweep South Carolina. It wasn't easy, but they got it done. Now at 6-9 in the SEC and inside the top 50 in the RPI, they're definitely alive for an at-large spot, but they're gonna have to really earn it with series left at Arkansas and at Texas the next two weeks, with other series looming vs. LSU and at Georgia. That's grueling, but if they survive it and get to 12 or 13 SEC wins, they'll probably get in.
Chris
12:11
How close is Cal Poly to getting some love in your poll? They have a very similar resume to UC Irvine and their RPI is better. Are you waiting to see if they get a series win against UCSB this weekend?
Aaron Fitt
12:11
The Mustangs are certainly right in the mix, one of four teams for two spots this week. The problem is that until this weekend, they had lost all the series they played against regional-caliber competition - UCLA, Texas A&M (which obviously still has work to do to be an at-large team) and Oregon State. So their resumé was still a little light relative to other teams in the mix at the back of the rankings, despite their 14-1 record in the Big West and their strong RPI -- but that 2-7 record against Q1 opponents is still an issue. Anyway, we think the Mustangs are good, and this was a nice series win. The next two weeks will be very telling, for sure.
Matt A
12:14
With WVU finally ranked, where do they stand when it comes to being a regional host?  30-4 mark is best in country, but SOS obviously lacking.  Which will matter more?  What would their RPI need to be to feel safe?
Aaron Fitt
12:14
Yeah, their nonconference strength of schedule is ranked 290th out of 305ish Division I teams -- that is a real problem (and explains why it took them so long to get ranked, despite that gaudy record -- they really didn't beat anybody). Ultimately if they win the Big 12, that won't matter. If they finish near the top of the Big 12 and manage to get that RPI inside the top 16, they'll probably host despite the NSOS, because they will have won enough to overcome that NSOS deficiency (which is baked into the RPI, after all). But if they're sitting at 20 in the RPI at the end of the year and finish in 3rd place, let's say -- that's a scenario where that NSOS will probably be the tie-breaker that keeps them from hosting. So there's your road map.
John
12:18
Both Bay Area teams are on a little bit of a slide. What do you see as their outlooks for the rest of the season? What % chance to make a regional for each? And has this season changed your view on the teams going forward in the ACC?
Aaron Fitt
12:18
After all the noise they made early in ACC play, now the grind of the league has certainly caught up with both Stanford and Cal, both of them sitting at 6-12 in the league. The way it is trending, I certainly don't envision either team being in regionals, although both are in good enough shape in the RPI (especially Stanford) that they could theoretically get bids if they can get hot down the stretch and get to 13 or 14 conference wins. I just don't think I see that happening this year. Stanford's pitching has been, well, bad. And I don't think I have faith that they're going to turn it around in time. Cal is feisty but that roster just feels a little light to make that kind of run in the ACC. I figured both teams would be competitive in the ACC, and they have been at times. But it is definitely a step up in competition, and obviously the reality of the frequent cross-country travel is a major burden that they both have to bear. No other ACC team will ever have to make that cross country trip more than once.
Birdman 25
12:22
What would you say Louisville has to do for reminder of ACC play to put itself into a possible hosting scenario for a regional ? They have some injury issues right now that is hampering both their starting lineup and pitching rotation .
Aaron Fitt
12:22
The Cards are 9-6 right now, and 17 conference wins is usually a pretty good target for an ACC host candidate, but 18 would obviously be even better. I think they could get to 18-12, but that would mean going 9-6 again in the second half, and that's a tough slate, with tough series at Clemson, vs. FSU, at GT and vs. Wake, along with a trip to Notre Dame. If they can go 8-7 against that slate, they will certainly have earned a host spot, I think, and the RPI should jump accordingly. We'll see if the pitching holds up enough to do it -- obviously this was a bad weekend on the mound, but I love their lineup. And overall, their pitching has been much better than it was in Raleigh.
Charles L
12:25
Given WKU’s weak non-conference schedule, if they don’t win the CUSA auto bid what would their end of year RPI need to be for an at-large bid? Hopefully it won’t matter come year end, but have to cover all your bases!
Aaron Fitt
12:25
I think they'll be safe if they finish in the 30s in the RPI and win the CUSA regular-season title. Even if they were to finish second, I think they'd get a bid with an RPI in the 30s, particularly after the statements they made over the last two weekends. If they dip into the 40s, they could certainly still get in, but things like momentum and the size of the bubble would matter more in that case. If they fizzle late and wind up in the 40s, that would hurt more than if they keep on winning but still drop into the 40s.
Kelt
12:28
At 57 in the RPI, why is Oregon still considered a top-25 caliber team? Kendall talks about INTENT TO SCHEDULE. The Ducks have an objectively weak strength of schedule with 9 losses to Q3 and Q4 teams. Any insight here?
Aaron Fitt
12:28
The short answer is, they started out ranked around the top 10 because they returned a LOT of good players from back-to-back super regional teams -- they earned that high ranking because of their track record. And they have stayed in the rankings despite a lackluster nonconference schedule because they have only lost one series all year -- and they dropped in the rankings for that series loss, but we weren't gonna run them from the top 10 out of the Top 25. Oregon has kinda muddled along at times this year, definitely hasn't been the buzzsaw you'd like to see against the schedule they have played... but they do still keep on winning their series. And that's how a team can stay in the rankings even without high-end wins. I know that's not a satisfying answer, but that's just how it works.
Bob
12:31
I realize nothing is in a vacuum but how did Ole Miss drop 5 spots after losing a one run game Friday night and a two run game Sunday to then #5 (now #4) Tennessee? Seems like a pretty harsh penalty for a hard fought series that was even in total runs scored and came down to the 9th inning of game 3.
Aaron Fitt
12:31
I agree, it was a bit harsh, and we debated keeping them at 9 and dropping LSU to 11, but that seemed too harsh for LSU, considering those guys just swept Oklahoma on the road last weekend. Looking at their overall bodies of work, it felt more fair and consistent to drop LSU 6 spots to 9 and Ole Miss 5 spots to 11 (we wanted to keep UCLA at 10 after a 3-1 week). So there's your weekly #PollMechanics Corner -- hope that insight was everything you dreamed it would be.
Tex
12:33
Hey Fitt, just curious if you’re still selling that Texas stock you were two weeks ago? I’m sure there’s a few people who’d take it off your hands lol. All kidding aside, is Texas the favorite to win the SEC now? The schedule down the stretch is pretty favorable compared to Arkansas, Georgia and LSU.
Aaron Fitt
12:33
Ha! Is it too late to buy some of that stock back? I'm afraid the ship has sailed and I'm left holding the bag -- I blame my panic on the tariffs (and on Max Belyeu's injury, obviously). So very impressed with the way Texas has weathered the Belyeu injury and also the A-Rod injury, although it's good to see Rodriguez back now. I'm a convert; these Horns just have that it factor. They just win. And obviously they are very talented too, but man that grit is a separator.
Heel
12:34
Does this past weekend change your thoughts on UNC's ceiling moving forward?
Kendall Rogers
12:34
Heel -- I think Fitt and myself have always been very very high on North Carolina's pitching staff, and I loved this team on paper coming into the season. Obviously, the Heels had a couple of weekends where they didn't do much offensively. But it seems like Gavin Gallaher, Jackson Van De Brake and Luke Stevenson are all clicking at the right time now. I'm very bullish on these guys as a potential national title contender.
Guest
12:38
What does Mississippi State’s RPI need to be at with 13 conference wins to be in a regional? I see a lot of people saying if we get to 13 we would be in. Based on playing with the predictive RPI numbers it looks like RPI would be in the 40s unless they win series against OM or Auburn
Kendall Rogers
12:38
I think the biggest thing for Mississippi State right now is winning enough games to get to that 12 and ideally, 13, mark in terms of conference wins. If State accomplishes that goal, the RPI will take care of itself.
Kyle
12:39
Iowa is currently 21-11, 14-4 in Big Ten play, which is good for first place over UCLA, but their RPI is 92 right now. Down 20-25 spots over their last 8 games, despite going 6-2. If they won the regular season title with an RPI in the 60's or even stayed in the top three, they would have to be in a regional regardless of their RPI right? The Big Ten is normally a three-bid league and seemingly added three at-large worthy teams making it tougher to finish near the top.
Aaron Fitt
12:39
This will be a very interesting case, Kyle! Ultimately I think the answer is yes -- if they win the league with an RPI in the 60s, I think they get in. If they finish in the top 3 and finish in the 60s... that would be dicey, but certainly they'd have a legitimate chance. The track record is mixed for teams in the Big Ten and Pac-12 with RPIs in the 60s but strong conference records, but there is some precedent for it. I think everyone is still trying to figure out the lay of the land with all the realignment, but ultimately I think the new-look Big Ten will get a little wiggle room.
cool 1
GigEm
12:41
how about the Aggies this past weekend.
Kendall Rogers
12:41
Crazy weekend for the Aggies. Now it gets real again this weekend with a quick road trip to Arkansas followed by a series at Texas, and of course, LSU at home. What a hellacious three-week stretch for the Aggies, but there's no doubt this offense is clicking right now. As much as Caden Sorell's return has meant to this team, I'd argue the emergence of Bear Harrison has been as important. He's hitting north of .400 in SEC play with premium power. I still have some serious concerns about A&M's bullpen however.
Austin
12:42
There are 4 ACC teams sitting at 9-9 in conference--Duke, Wake, UVA, and VT. Three of them just had pretty disappointing weekends, but which of the four would you say you still have the most confidence in, and which are you most concerned about?
Aaron Fitt
12:42
What a question! These teams are tough to get a handle on -- every time I feel like I am gaining confidence in one of them, it takes a step back. Every time I'm ready to jump ship on one of them, it goes out and has a statement weekend. I'm just befuddled. But if I have to pick one, I'm sticking with UVa, because I'm pot-committed there. That club is too talented and too well coached not to make a serious run down the stretch, in my opinion. I think Duke and Wake are also capable of making Omaha runs if they're playing well at the right time. I'm a little less sold on VT long term, but certainly I do like their roster as well and think they're a regional team. I reserve the right to completely change my opinion on all of these teams from week to week. The swings in this ACC season have been wild.
UnderDog
12:44
What the HillTopper? No love for Western Kentucky?
Kendall Rogers
12:44
Under -- We've shown a ton of love for Western Kentucky on our site, on social and I'll actually be writing a little bit about them in my Monday column. I've been extremely impressed with WKU's pitching staff, namely Drew Whalen and Dawson Hall. Whalen's conference pitching numbers are outrageous right now with a .133 OBA. WKU is in a very good spot from a postseason standpoint right now.
Kevin R
12:45
Lost in the sweep to Auburn will be how good LSU's bullpen performed: 12.2 IP, 2 runs (1 earned), 9K to 3 BB; and this was more than just Evans/Cowan. Not to mention the pitching staff as a whole still only allowed 4 runs and 3 runs in G2 and G3, respectively. How encouraged are you that this pitching staff can keep it going the rest of the way, because the bats will be back.
Aaron Fitt
12:45
I have been high on that LSU pitching staff all year and certainly I remain high on it -- I know the bullpen has had some ups and downs, but I love the talent and depth there. So I expect that staff to continue to be very good the rest of the way; that doesn't mean they're going to dominate every week, but over the long haul I think this is one of the best staffs out there. And you're right, the bats will heat up again. Ebbs & flows of a long season; tip your cap to Auburn, they pitched GREAT this weekend, and they are a good club.
Daniel
12:45
If Georgia Tech wins the ACC regular season title, will they get a top 8 national seed?
Aaron Fitt
12:45
Definitely. No question about it. And as you probably know, Georgia Tech currently sits alone atop the standings at 14-4. Hmm...
Kevin R
12:47
Why is KR always fashionably late to these things?
Aaron Fitt
12:47
We're trying something new the last few weeks, with me working as opener and KR coming in as the stopper for extended innings late. With that said, take it away Kendall -- I'm out! See you guys next week.
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Brucey
12:47
If Texas can hit 17 wins in the SEC, does that guarantee a Top 8 seed?
Kendall Rogers
12:47
If Texas only wins 17 league games, it would mean it finished the season pretty poorly. The Longhorns are already at 13 league wins and have 15 conference games left. So, I like the Longhorns' chances of eclipsing that 17-win mark. As for their case as a whole, looking to be in a very strong position for a top 8 seed down the stretch. Those guys just keep getting pieces to step up in big situations. Yesterday, it was Grayson Saunier being thrust into the action and delivering.
DDawg
12:51
How big was that series win for USC at Penn State?
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