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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 18
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F.I.D.A.B
12:02
We’ve struggled at times so understandably unranked. But so we know what does A&M need to do to earn entry into the rankings?
Kendall Rogers
12:02
A&M's path is pretty crystal clear right now. Are the Aggies improving? You bet. But Kentucky is just OK and obviously Georgia is very solid, even without ace pitcher Jonathan Cannon. Have a good week that includes a home series win over Arkansas and you will see the Aggies ranked next week. That would be a pretty strong resume heading down the stretch. I would add that I think that coaching staff is getting the absolute most out of that team. The fact they're trending this way with all those setbacks is pretty damn impressive.
Brandon
12:03
Genuinely surprised you guys left the Red Raiders ranked as high as you did. Just a terrible week, where we struggled in all phases of the game. Expected a bigger fall. What’s your level of concern for Tech going forward? Is this a hosting-caliber team?
Kendall Rogers
12:03
Brandon -- Definitely not the best week ever for Texas Tech, but the good news for Tech is that almost everyone else lost, too. So, that gave them some cushion. Also, it was Tech's first bad weekend in a while. Not really concerned unless it becomes a trend.
Greg
12:05
Southern Miss was one of the few ranked teams to hold serve with a 4-0 week. What are their odds of being a top 8 national seed? And is it crazy of me that I could easily see this team winning it all?
Kendall Rogers
12:05
Greg -- I mean, USM is sitting at 13 in the RPI, and a really strong finish in the regular season and the conference tournament would certainly put the Golden Eagles in prime position to be a top eight seed. The human rankings will also help USM with the committee if the current trend continues. And yes, I do think USM could make noise in Omaha. It has a strong bullpen and three very very good weekend starters. That's typically a very good recipe.
BW
12:06
Arkansas loses Kopps and the pitching staff…doesn’t miss a beat? Make it make sense.
Kendall Rogers
12:06
BW -- Matt Hobbs is really really good at his job. Matt did a phenomenal job at Wake Forest before heading over to join the Hogs. What he's done with Connor Noland has been pretty remarkable - Noland now has a breaking ball that can flash plus. Jaxon Wiggins continues to make strides and Hagen Smith has been as advertised. And then there's Brady Tygart and Co. Pretty impressive, and they've needed that because it's not like Arkansas' offense has been killing the ball so far this season.
Lee
12:07
Let’s see, Vandy won a big series against a top 25 team, has a SOS of 11, and a RPI of 11 which is better than half your top 25. Who cares in April , we’ll see in June. Your reasoning please?
Kendall Rogers
12:07
Lee -- Very very easy. What has Vanderbilt done to be ranked? The Commodores just lost three-straight SEC series, and finally won a series over a halfway decent team in Florida over the weekend. I want to see Vandy put together some consistency against decent teams. Then, the Commodores will be ranked. WTS - I'm expecting them to finish very strong. This is till a supremely talented club with a ton of upside.
Chris P
12:08
Pitt getting close to being a potential tournament team? 4th straight ACC series win against UVA and they did it basically missing their entire starting outfield.
Aaron Fitt
12:08
Yeah really impressed with the way the Panthers fought this weekend, especially with all those injuries. That's obviously something to monitor going forward, and the uncertainty about the team's health is one reason Pitt didn't crank our top 25 this week, but I really like the resumé that team is building. Definitely in position to get an at-large bid right now.
Spencer
12:09
At 6-9 at the halfway point in the SEC schedule and barely above .500 overall, what to the Gamecocks need to do the rest of the way to have a chance at the postseason? Would finishing above .500 in SEC play be enough?
Kendall Rogers
12:09
Spencer -- South Carolina could be in a unique situation as an SEC team with a .500 or better record who doesn't get into the postseason because of so many bad midweek losses. The overall record is hovering just above .500. I'll say this -- if the Gamecocks finished above .500 in the SEC, I do believe they make the tournament. But it's not as slam dunk as most cases would be. Such a bizarre team man. South Carolina fans have to be going nutso.
Guest
12:09
Is it still possible for Mercer to get ranked? I understand the SOS isn’t great but it’s still not easy to be 31-5 in college baseball. If they went 3-1 this week with a win over GT and a series win over Wofford would that be enough?
Aaron Fitt
12:09
Yeah, we talked about ranking both Mercer and Wofford this week, they've both put together strong bodies of work. I think we're at a point now where whichever team wins that series between the two of them this weekend will find itself in the Top 25 next week. I am hoping to catch at least part of that series in Macon, looking forward to getting a look at those teams.
Mike Smith
12:11
Who will be your surprise team this year that makes Omaha?
Kendall Rogers
12:11
Mike -- I've still got my eye on Oklahoma. Jimmy Crooks and Peyton Graham are really good hitters, and I think OU does have enough offensively at times. But the thing that gives me some hope with OU is that it has several supremely talented arms -- some who have been a little up and down. If everything comes together, OU is extremely dangerous in the tournament.
RFBleacherCreature
12:12
Ok so long way to go for Clemson. Coming off their first ACC series win this weekend (finally). RPI at 47 and Obviously need to win each series from here on out, but does 14-15 get them in? Do they need to find a way to get over .500? Or is it over at this point.
Aaron Fitt
12:12
I think getting to 14-15 would be enough to do it; that's usually a good threshold for an ACC team to get an at-large, and even 13-16 could give them a chance, combined with a solid showing in the ACC tourney. But those next four weeks are awfully tough; I'm not banking on Clemson making the kind of run it needs to make to get in.
Guest
12:16
You gotta sell me on FSU not being ranked, doesn’t make much sense to me.. 4 straight wins over Louisville and Florida. 22-13, believe they’re 3rd in your SOS
Aaron Fitt
12:16
The ACC is just such a mess right now -- it's a game of musical chairs, and everybody has warts. So FSU had a great week, but before that they lost two straight series, including a head-to-head series vs. Georgia Tech. So should GT be ahead of FSU in the pecking order, based on the head to head, or do you give FSU the edge based on its one-game lead in the standings? GT has won two straight series, but before that had lost three straight. Then there's Pitt, which has won 4 straight series, but was swept by GT earlier. You can make a case for all of those teams, and you can make a case against them all. We want to see somebody show a little more consistency.
Jake
12:16
After their recent 8 game win streak, which included 2 mid week wins over Texas Tech, where would you have GCU ranked? Are they on the cusp of the top 25?
Kendall Rogers
12:16
Jake -- GCU was definitely in our discussion, but behind a few teams. With that said, ultra impressed with what Andy Stank's club has done this season. They've got the Tech sweep, and have taken care of business in the WAC. With that, when you're in a league like that, you have to take care of business on the weekend in non-conference, and GCU didn't do that. Really solid club with a good RPI -- Top 25? Not quite yet IMO.
RUscarletknights
12:18
Rutgers, that is all.
Aaron Fitt
12:18
Here's another one in the category with Mercer, Wofford and UCSB, all teams we discussed ranking this week based on gaudy overall records and consistent week to week showings, but against lackluster competition. In Rutgers' case, the Knights have played just two games against teams in the top 100 (they're 1-1). We're a little more impressed with Maryland's body of work based on its higher-end wins, so we brought the Terps in ahead of the Knights. But Rutgers keeps on winning, and is right on the cusp of the rankings, in addition to being in great shape for regionals, which is what actually matters.
Logjam
12:19
If we were to fastforward to the end of the season (when I predict that 5 out of 7 teams in the SEC West will be 15-15 in league play (LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama, TX A&M   -- Arkansas leading the pack and Ole Miss in last place).  Honestly, how can one differentiate between those teams when a league finish like that is unprecedented?
Kendall Rogers
12:19
Logjam -- In that case, you'd use the unbalanced schedule comparisons between all of those clubs, and as a committee, you'd rank them from there. Not the most fun or easiest thing in the world, but certainly doable.
Tj
12:20
How many bids does the sun belt get this year?
Kendall Rogers
12:20
I'm going to say three -- with an outside shot of getting four. I feel pretty comfortable with Texas State, Georgia Southern and one of Georgia State/South Alabama at this point.
Oaklandrollingcats
12:22
Based on the ACC being a gauntlet at the moment, realistically could the league see 6 or 7 regional teams?
Kendall Rogers
12:23
We will see if Aaron and Mark agree tomorrow, but I have the ACC sitting at 10 bids right now: NC State, Louisville, Wake Forest, Florida State, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh likely in at this point.
Wheelz
12:22
Could you guys explain why Alabama dropped out? First win against UT in SEC play and sitting at 8-7 in conf. also with a MW win over OVC leader Belmont this week. Then auburn loses 2/3 and almost gets swept by Miss. St. and only drops a couple spots? Doesn’t make sense imo
Aaron Fitt
12:22
This was another tricky one -- we definitely discussed keeping Alabama in the rankings, and if we didn't have other teams we thought were deserving of rankings, we would have felt fine about leaving Bama in after that 2-2 week. But a series loss is still a series loss, even though it was on the road against an elite team... and usually when the No. 24 team loses a series, it drops out. Auburn had a little more wiggle room because it was higher in the rankings, because it had a better body of work than Bama with more high-end series wins (three straight series wins vs. Vandy, at LSU, at A&M, plus a strong week one at State Farm). So that's four quality winning weekends against good competition, whereas Bama had just two (at Ole Miss, vs. A&M).
Oxford Bald Eagle
12:24
Guys, thanks for what you do.  Been with y’all since 16.  This group of Golden Eagles is special.  We will start hitting but grinding out W’s with great pitching when your not playing well is the mark of a great team.  Funny thing is that we will be better next year.  We lose Riggo, Gabe, and maybe Stuart.  Pre-season top 5?
Aaron Fitt
12:24
Thanks for being a long-time reader! I agree that this Southern Miss club seems special, and that pitching gives it such a high floor, so they can win even when the bats go cold, as you pointed out. And great point about what they've got coming back next year. Definitely feels like a team that could be a powerhouse in 2023.
John
12:25
How many teams do you think the big west will send to the tournament? If so who do you think?
Kendall Rogers
12:25
One, MAYBE two? I'm leaning toward one. I feel pretty good about UCSB winning that league behind up 2 1/2 games right now. But I could see UCI or Cal Poly getting into at-large discussion by season's end. Just another putrid year for that conference.
PNW
12:26
Oregon and Oregon St tied atop the Pac-12 right now and sitting at 5/6 in the RPI. Is there potential to have two host sites in the state of Oregon?
Kendall Rogers
12:26
PNW - I think Oregon and Oregon State are pretty safely locked in as host sites as of today ... things can change though.
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