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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 20
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Kendall Rogers
1:10
Todd -- OSU is right there on the bubble with a host of other teams. I will say this about the Pokes, sitting at 48, they kind of control their own destiny with TCU and Arizona State still left on the schedule. Win both of those series, and obviously I'd feel pretty good about where the Pokes are in the conference/postseason pecking order.
Shawshanked
1:13
What SEC conference record gets a team in the NCAA tournament regardless of its RPI? I recognize that more wins will result in a better RPI, but is there such a thing as a conference record so good that RPI becomes irrelevant?
Aaron Fitt
1:13
Vandy could wind up being a fascinating test case this year -- Warren's projections have them getting to 17 SEC wins and still being stuck at 67 in the RPI. If that happens -- I mean, 17 SEC wins is a lot, but I just don't see how you could put an SEC team with an RPI in the 60s in the field. No way. SEC teams roll out of bed and get an SEC bump -- it's actually HARD to have such a lousy RPI while being 9-9 in that conference! Anyway, I'm not sure how much stock to put into that WN predicted RPI... but I think it is a useful guide to suggest they're probably not going to get close to No. 50, which really feels like a baseline target for an SEC team to get an at-large.
Nate F
1:14
Any chance you guys see DBU making the tournament?
Kendall Rogers
1:14
Not at this point. DBU had a golden opportunity over the weekend and dropped that series to Liberty. Right now, DBU has a pretty iffy non-conference resume to go with a solid league record and an RPI of 68. I think DBU would have to win every remaining series, and probably make a run in the conference tournament as well to even have a shot given where it is right now. Never discounting a Dan Heefner club, however.
Andrew
1:14
Is the Sun Belt still a three bid league? Which one of Texas State/Arkansas State has the better chance at an at-large?
Kendall Rogers
1:14
Andrew - I'd probably lean Texas State as of today, but guess what, these two get to settle it on the field in Jonesboro in a couple of weeks.
Buster
1:16
Big West thoughts?   3 way tie at the top, and Fullerton is playing well.  Who do you think separates?
Aaron Fitt
1:16
Yeah, Titans are having a decent year -- still makes me a little sad that our standards for Fullerton have fallen so low that being 19-19 with a top-100 RPI qualifies as a decent year for that mighty program. I miss Fullerton being a giant in our sport, nostalgia kicking in here! Anyway -- my money is on the Gauchos, they just have the best pitching and already swept Cal Poly on the road and won a series at UC San Diego -- I think they'll separate down the stretch.
RPI Question
1:18
Two RPI questions: For the last few years. what is the highest RPI an at-large team had and still made the NCAA tournament without winning conference? As of today with 4 weeks lef, what is the "number"....in other words, if my team is below number X, even if they have a good run, they can't make up low the RPI number at this point. is a 100+ number insurmountable?
Aaron Fitt
1:18
Courtesy of the NerdMaster General, Mark Etheridge, these are the worst RPI teams to get an at-large:
2025: Arizona State 49
Oklahoma State 46
2024: Indiana 55
2023: Louisiana 47
2022: Grand Canyon 50
2021: Michigan 88* UCSB 51
2019 TCU 59 Florida State 50
2018: Washington 63
2017: UCLA 52
2016: Washington 55
2015: Oregon 62
2014: Cal State Fullerton 54
2013: UCSB 57
2012: Sam Houston State 51
2011: St. John's 54
2010: NC State 48
2009: Southern Miss 57
2008: St. John's 58
*Covid year
1:20
You'll notice those are mostly West teams -- for all the whining from the West about how biased everything is against them, they get a lot more RPI leeway than teams in the ACC and SEC (as they should! Because it is harder for West teams to construct those robust RPIs, due in part to uncontrollable geographic factors). Anyway -- teams can still make big RPI moves down the stretch, provided they've got a bunch of road games against quality opponents. But at this point it's hard to envision a team outside the top 100 getting into the 40s, which is generally where you need to be to have a shot.
Chris
1:18
Can Texas A&M’s pitching continue to improve/stabilize so the Aggies pitch at an average level down the stretch?
Kendall Rogers
1:18
I said this during the Texas series, but given the offense and the defensive improvements, A&M can compete for a national title with just average pitching. I thought Darden, Lyons and Freshcorn were really good over the weekend against LSU. I think the Aggies' biggest question mark would be if they have to win a second game of a regional title game, because I don't think they're losing a super at Blue Bell. They are a contender in my book.
love 1
BOC
1:24
Good to see the dawgs get back on track with another sweep! I have 17-13 finish as most likely outcome. Would that be enough to get back into national seed discussion?
Aaron Fitt
1:24
Given where MSU is in the RPI (currently No. 18), I don't think 17-13 would be enough for the top 8 for the Bulldogs -- as opposed to Auburn currently sitting at No. 5, 17-13 likely would be enough. I think State probably needs to get to 18, maybe even 19 SEC wins to get that RPI up enough for the top 8 (we know the committee has a tendency to put together a top eight that is very closely aligned with the top 10 in the RPI). That said -- I am bullish on the Bulldogs finishing strong, think they have a real shot to do it.
cool 1
Frank
1:25
Is Georgia the most dangerous offensive team in the country, or too reliant on power?
Aaron Fitt
1:25
They're certainly on the short list but for me Georgia Tech and UCLA are more complete, multi-dimensional offensive clubs, that also have loads of power.
Jimbo11
1:27
How many ACC teams do you think will be seeded in the top 8 and top 16? Could GT, UNC and FSU be national hosts?
Aaron Fitt
1:27
Yeah certainly, it's starting to feel like the ACC has a very good shot at 3 of the top 8. UNC and GT are obviously in superb shape, and FSU isn't far behind them. UVa and BC are a bit farther back in the RPI, probably won't wind up in the top 8, but neither is out of the hunt if they can finish strong. I see all five of those teams hosting right now, with Wake and Miami also in the conversation.
Demetrias
1:27
So what are your thoughts about Kansas in the big 12 now since they won 5 straight conference series
Aaron Fitt
1:27
I'm very impressed with them and I'm really looking forward at getting a look at them in person in a couple weeks when they host WVU -- I booked that trip last night. The series of the year in the Big 12, gonna be a good one!
James
1:28
Is there any reason for Houston and Texas Tech to be as bad as they have been the last few years? Feels like those two programs should be positioned to be competitive in the Big 12 every year. Is it a resource problem? Tech, in particular, seems to be getting a lot of financial support in other sports not named baseball.
Kendall Rogers
1:28
James -- If I'm being honest, Houston hasn't really been the same since Frank Anderson went to Tennessee with Tony Vitello. I also think the Cougars, at times, have had some really really bad injury issues over the past few years, but so does everyone else at times (and they still have success). I would be surprised if a change wasn't made at UH. As for Texas Tech, there is a LOT of noise coming out of Lubbock right now, and honestly, this is a program that should be better. We're going on three-straight seasons of Tech not even being much of a factor. That shouldn't happen, especially given some of the resources Tech has these days.
bear
1:28
If the season ended today in the B12 and Baylor record was 15-15 in conference, overall record 30-24, RPI at 50, SOS 15...would we get in?how many B12 teams get in..7?
Aaron Fitt
1:28
I think with a .500 league record and a No. 50 RPI, a Big 12 team would most likely find itself on the wrong side of the bubble. And 7 or 8 bids feels like how it is tracking.
DaAggies
1:30
What is one team (or multiple) that have a solid resume, but you just aren't sold based off the eye-test?
Kendall Rogers
1:30
Alabama. Really good metrics, but it just feels like every time I watch the Tide, it just looks really, really average, especially from an offensive standpoint. That doesn't mean they aren't a good team, just means I just think they are OK -- good, not great.
West
1:30
UCLA is 21-0 in conference and 27-0 vs high major teams this season, that's unheard of.  Do you think Logan Reddeman has been the most impactful transfer in the country?
Aaron Fitt
1:30
They brought so much back from an Omaha team last year -- and just hit grand slams on their two big-ticket transfers, Reddemann and Gasparino. Unbelievable how expertly that roster was put together. Yeah, I'd give Reddemann the nod for most impactful transfer -- more than anything else, that team needed a true horse on Friday nights, and he was exactly what the doctor ordered. He's so, so good.
TXBaseball
1:33
Would you rather have consistent hitting and inconsistent offense (like Texas) or consistent hitting and knife edge pitching (like Texas A&M). I used to consider myself a pitching over hitting guy, but with the current offensive environment, I almost think I would rather have an offense that is guaranteed 5+ runs a game and hope my pitching figures it out on the day in question.
Aaron Fitt
1:33
I think it depends on your ultimate goal. I still think pitching is king in Omaha, so if you want to win it all, I want a team that has some real shut-down arms. But to get to Omaha, you're almost certainly gonna have to play in much more hitter-friendly ballparks, so you'd better be able to generate enough offense. Doesn't mean you can't get there by riding elite pitching and shutting down other good offenses, but it does feel like maybe there's more margin for error for teams that are more offensive (see Vanderbilt last year, the No. 1 overall seed, but a pitching-dominant team that lacked offensive firepower, and didn't get out of its own regional. Feels like that happens more often to pitching-centric teams than hitting-centric teams -- but that's not a scientific statement, just a gut feel comment).
Aaron Fitt
1:33
OK friends, really enjoyed the chat today, thanks for the great questions. See you next week!
Wyatt
1:35
Will Kansas State make an at large bid? RPI down to 55 its not looking promising.
Kendall Rogers
1:35
Very fringe postseason case right now, but the Wildcats still have Kansas (RPI 22), West Virginia (27), Nebraska (14), Cincinnati (21) and UCF (45). In essence, that's a lot of meat on the bone from an RPI standpoint. I'd like to see KSU make a run to the tournament because I think that's one of the better offensive lineups I've seen this season.
Guest
1:45
Louisville has seemingly been the most frustrating team in the ACC this year. Sitting at 7-11 in the ACC , they should have probably won the last 4/5 ACC weekends instead of the 1-2 weekends that have had. They have lost games in mind-boggling ways during this stretch . I’m not giving up , although they virtually have no room for error and must make up ground in ACC quickly. They do have room to improve their RPI with remaining games against some really good competition. Believe it’s almost mandatory that they beat Kentucky and sweep Clemson this weekend (all at home ). Your thoughts . Thanks for all you guys do in promoting college baseball with the excellent coverage .
Kendall Rogers
1:45
Yeah, Louisville is one of those weird teams where it probably won't make the postseason, but is good enough to win a regional and super regional on a given weekend. There's still a lot of talent present. With that said, the pathway is just so difficult for Mac's team right now. 117 RPI and a bad league record. I think they'd need to run the table against Clemson, Wake Forest, Miami and UVA in terms of series wins, or win three of those and then go on a run in the ACC tournament. Strange year for the Cards.
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