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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 24
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Mike
12:39
The boys down in Conway have a potent offense, but do you think Coastal Carolina has the arms to get to the College World Series?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
You are correct about the offense -- it's downright scary. I was down there this weekend, and I was so impressed with the quality of their at-bats, their overall plate discipline from top to bottom, and obviously they have power as well. I am skeptical of the pitching... but maybe they could slug their way through a regional and a super. Lord knows the ball is flying this year, and it usually flies even more in June when the weather is hot. Could envision Coastal playing a regional similar to last year's Stillwater Regional and winning some 15-14 games in the postseason.
HookemHorns
12:40
What are your thoughts on the Longhorns? Getting swept at home by OU take them out of hosting unless they make a run to finish the season? Are they really just OK at the end of the day?
Kendall Rogers
12:40
Hookem -- Texas did a lot of little things wrong against Oklahoma, and this just isn't a team that can afford to do that. When Texas was winning a lot of games earlier this season, it was a team with a clear-cut identity who did a lot of the small things right. Frankly, I think David Pierce and his staff have done a great job with a team, that on paper, should not be in the mix for a host site. I'm not pressing the panic button on UT until I see how it responds the next two weekends against TCU and Kansas. I don't operate in one weekend freakouts.
Charlie
12:42
Huge fan of the work you guys do. Is the only path for Irvine to get in the at-large conversation to go on a major heater the rest of the way? Their RPI is in the 40s currently, but they still have to play Bakersfield, Riverside, and Davis, so it will probably drop, and they are only 7-8 in conference play. This past weekend against K-State feels like a big missed opportunity.
Kendall Rogers
12:42
Irvine definitely needed to win that Kansas State series. Now, the RPI is down to the mid-40s and it will have a lot of work to do moving forward with UCSB and CSF clearly ahead of it in the pecking order. The remaining schedule is not too kind from an RPI standpoint.
Jake
12:43
Is Clemson Baseball back? Kidding but the Tigers have won three straight ACC series including a sweep at NC State this past weekend. Clemson is up to 22nd in the RPI and .500 in the ACC. Surely they're a regional team but could they get into the regional host conversation over the next five weeks?
Aaron Fitt
12:43
Yeah, give the Tigers a lot of credit for hanging in there when things looked bleak -- Clemson looked dead in the water three weeks ago at 2-7 in the ACC and 16-13 overall. Now they've won three straight series and swept a road series at NC State, a team I was pushing hard last week as a second-half surge pick to click. The Clemson offense has really come together. And yes, the Tigers are clearly in as a regional team now, and definitely could wind up hosting if they can hold their own down the stretch (which remains challenging -- at BC, vs. Louisville, at Va Tech, vs UNC to finish). But after handling the first daunting challenge of that stretch, sweeping NC State on the road, suddenly it feels like Clemson might be able to manage this brutal finishing stretch. Stay tuned.
Chris
12:44
Thoughts on Texas A&M heading into another difficult week?
Kendall Rogers
12:44
Chris -- Feel much much better about the Aggies both defensively and offensively. A&M defended an unorthodox Kentucky lineup quite well over the weekend, and the offense is getting big hits left and right -- Sunday excluded. The biggest thing for A&M is that the pitching has to be better. Right now, the Aggies have an ERA over seven in the SEC. That's gotta be better.
Bullpenless in Starkville
12:46
Late inning leads of 8 and 6 runs on Saturday and Sunday isn't quite enough these days, boys.  What is State to do?  We may have lost Dohm as well.
Aaron Fitt
12:46
Yeah.... I don't have an answer for you. Not liking MSU's chances in Knoxville next weekend without Dohm. It's do or die time now, they'll just have to find a way somehow.
BattlingBulldog
12:47
Still many question marks around Georgia, but this weekend was a sign of life. Need to see a series win in Oxford to have full confidence. With their RPI at 18 currently, would 13 SEC wins be enough? Maybe 13+1 in Hoover? Or is 14 still the magic number?
Kendall Rogers
12:47
13 SEC wins + a Top 25 type of RPI would probably get Georgia in the NCAA tournament field, especially considering some of the high-end series wins.
David W
12:49
I haven’t had the chance to watch much Wake Forrest this year. However I am curious to hear about them more as a Carolina fan. What top 5 teams have they beaten this year? And how does their current resume compare favorably to Carolina’s? Go cocks!
Aaron Fitt
12:49
South Carolina has the better resumé now, certainly more high-end wins. But Wake hasn't done anything to drop, they have won all 10 of their weekends, and we're certainly not going to drop them after winning back to back road series in conference. Wake Forest also might be the most complete team in the country, with the nation's best weekend rotation, plus one of the few bullpens that can rival (or maybe even best) South Carolina's, and a dangerous, experienced lineup -- they really don't have any holes.
James
12:49
I know it has been a rough two weeks for TCU and they were picked to finish first in the Big 12  ,but three peating as regular season Champs is really hard and they're not going to do that this year. That being said it feels like they're backed up against the perverbial wall right now with a 12 game home stand to start the final month of regular season play. Just how important is this week and the weeks going forward now are for them?
Kendall Rogers
12:49
When you're in a power conference and have an RPI of 52 to go with a losing league record, your'e going to be in a little trouble from a bubble standpoint. TCU also played a very difficult non-conference schedule, which is why it's almost a .500 overall club. That will earn them some brownie points with the committee, but at the end of the day, if you're RPI is 50-60 and you're around .500 in league, you're not getting in.
Matt W
12:50
You are down to your last out, down by 1 run in the bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded. Dylan Crews is already on base because he lives there (😄). Who would you want coming to the plate?
Kendall Rogers
12:50
Ethan Petry. That dude is the definition of monster.
Kendall Rogers
12:50
All right gang -- that is all for me today. Aaron is going to take you home. Make sure you use the code SAVE30 to get 30% off an annual sub, here: http://www.d1baseball.com/subscribe
VolNation
12:51
Florida gets swept by South Carolina and drops from 3 to 4.   I know I know you're going to say everyone else lost, that's their first weekend loss, South Carolina is really good  etc etc but come on man Florida fed off the bottom of the conference and didn't look like they belonged on the same field with the Gamecocks.  .
Aaron Fitt
12:51
And who would you put at No. 4 then? I'll wait.

Somebody's got to be No. 4. Some weeks the rankings are ugly, nothing we can do about it.
cool 1
Brenden
12:55
Stanford has been ranked in the top ten for most, if not all of the season but I can't help but feel underwhelmed by how they've played this season.  At 25-12, am I wrong to think that they should be in a better position that where they are right now?
Aaron Fitt
12:55
It does feel like Stanford hasn't been as consistent as we expected. There have been some ups and downs in the last six weeks, but part of that might simply be a product of the fact that the Pac is deeper this year, with more chances to stub your toe (USC is obviously a whole lot better, for instance, so that series loss doesn't look bad in hindsight). Ultimately, I think Stanford is in a pretty solid spot at 13-5 in the league with a sweep over Oregon State, a road series win against a borderline top 25 Fullerton club, and now a solid series win against Washington.
Charles Sydney Carpenter's lucky bat
12:58
After getting swept at Georgia, do you feel like Arkansas just had a bad week or are there more pressing/lasting concerns there? Seems like the injuries piling up (Wegner out until mid-to-late May, now Josenberger's hamstring, Rowland's back, and ongoing pitching woes) could make SEC wins even harder to come by than they already were for the Hogs.
Aaron Fitt
12:58
I do worry about the injuries -- we've all marveled for a while about how Arkansas has kept on winning even despite the injuries piling up, but it hard to keep that going all year long without that stuff catching up to you. But they're a mentally tough bunch, very well coached and clearly talented, and getting Brady Tygart back should provide a boost. Feel like the next two weeks are navigable too, with A&M at home and Miss State on the road.
mark
12:58
Despite several quality wins and series, and being ranked in top 10-15 of most polls, is Texas Tech destined for a 3 or 4 seed no matter what thanks to an unforgiving RPI?
Aaron Fitt
12:58
Kinda feels that way... still stuck in the mid-60s -- yeesh. I suspect they finish in the 40s and wind up as a 3 seed.
Soo Ducks
1:00
Why no Oregon movement  up the polls ?
Aaron Fitt
1:00
Just an OK week, 2-2 with a midweek loss to Portland and then winning two of three against the second to last place team in the conference. Plus they lost the head to head series against Oregon State, so it made sense to us to keep them behind the Beavers.
Eric Simmons
1:02
Is North Carolina in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament after getting swept by Boston College at home?
Aaron Fitt
1:02
I mean yeah, suddenly UNC is very much on the bubble (and if the season ended today, on the wrong side of the bubble, with a No. 47 RPI and a losing record in conference). Suddenly that series in Blacksburg this week looks mighty important for the Tar Heels. Sounds like they're going to shake some things up on the mound, and they need to try to find a combination that works -- time is running short.
Mid-Major Sadness
1:06
Is this an unusually uninspiring year for mid-majors on the bubble? #44 Irvine needs to be better than 7th in the Big West. Wofford, TX St, ODU, Charlotte seem like they have uphill climbs out of the 50s. The Colonial schools have zero margin for error. #41 UTSA’s next eight games feature a combined winning percentage of .377, so they could fall even without a slip-up. Are we really just waiting around to see which SEC and ACC teams will claim the available 3-seeds?
Aaron Fitt
1:06
You make some good points, but also you have Troy sitting there at No. 33, Northeastern at 39, plus the mid-majors that are well above the bubble like Campbell (27), UCSB (25), Southern Miss (19), ECU (15), UConn (14), DBU (13) and Indiana State (10). That's a lot of mid-majors that look like slam dunk regional teams, and now all of them are going to win their auto bids, which means a number of them will gobble up at-large bids, at the expense of some of those ACC and SEC bubble teams. And then you also have those other mid-major bubble teams you mention. You're right that mid-majors in the 50s (and even the 40s) don't have great track records of getting in, but some of those teams could still climb before selection day. They're in the hunt.
GoCards
1:08
What are your thoughts on Louisville after going 0-4 this week and a loaded schedule ahead of them? Bullpen is really struggling as of late. Where do you see them landing in the postseason? Or could you see them missing the tournament completely?
Aaron Fitt
1:08
Like Arkansas, Louisville is one of those teams that has been hit hard by injury stuff lately, and they're going through a rough patch. But all three of those games this weekend were obviously super competitive, and the Cards were in position to win all three late -- which supports your comment about the bullpen struggling right now. I think they'll get healthier and Roger Williams will figure out how to solidify that bullpen between now and the postseason. I like that roster quite a bit, would be shocked if they melted down to the point of missing the postseason. But hosting seems to be slipping away from them.
Greg
1:10
Which is more likely: 4 ACC hosts, or no Big XII hosts?
Aaron Fitt
1:10
Interesting question there. I suppose I'll go with four ACC hosts; still feels like OK State or WVU will probably find a way to host. In the ACC, Wake will host, and right now it feels like UVa, BC and Duke are all on track -- but man that league is topsy turvy.
Walt
1:11
Anyway you can see DBU hosting? #11 RPI with a solid chance to win C-USA. Thoughts on them so far?
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