You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Return toD1Baseball
D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 25
powered byJotCast
View Full Chat Next Page
Nic
12:02
After losing the series to Maryland, what does Illinois's postseason picture look like and what do they need to do to get in?
Kendall Rogers
12:02
NIC -- Illinois definitely needs to finish the regular season very strong. Right now, I'd have Maryland and Iowa certainly ahead of Illinois, and the same would go for Rutgers at the moment. With that said, I feel like the separation between Rutgers through Michigan is minimal, so we will see what happens in league play the rest of the way.
JamesBond
12:03
Sun belt a sure thing 3 bid league?
Kendall Rogers
12:03
James - I would feel pretty comfortable putting Texas State, Georgia Southern and Louisiana in the field right now with Georgia State a potential fourth team -- likely on the bad side of the bubble at the moment.
AJ
12:05
Is North Carolina just completely dead in the water? It seems like there’s just no arms left standing for them.
Kendall Rogers
12:05
AJ -- Not dead in the water, but certainly a lot of work to do at 8-13 in the league. I would say they need to take two of their final three series and probably make some noise in the ACC tournament as well. Win all three and that puts you at 14-16 with a good RPI (and likely in the field).
Guest
12:05
After a 1-3 for Mercer where do they sit seeding wise if the tournament were today? Can they still get a two seed?
Kendall Rogers
12:05
Mercer is your No. 2 seed in Knoxville in my book, but we'll see what happens. Definite 2 seed at this point with little chance for a 1.
Billy
12:06
Texas looked like a more confident team over the weekend. If the Horns are able win each of their remaining series, would that be enough for a top eight national seed?
Kendall Rogers
12:06
Billy -- If Texas won its three remaining series and played well in Oklahoma City, it would definitely be in the mix for a top seed. That would be a strong finish to say the least. Scoring 46 runs against Baylor and Ivan continuing to do his thing was an impressive weekend, but Oklahoma State will be a much tougher test. Baylor is very much scuffling right now.
Guy
12:07
Love all your work (pods, articles, etc.), but have a bit of a beef 😊 with the rankings output - which I think is due to the process. It seems you slot teams up and down based on most recent weeks performance but will not move teams ahead of one another when taking a step back at total resume unless teams stumble. Thus, teams may get rewarded for what seems like a big series win early in the season but turns out to be against a team that is not as strong as originally thought. Another instance, a team that goes 2-1 every week seems to get rewarded more than teams that go 3-0 and 1-2 or 0-3. Two specific examples to illustrate this.
Aaron Fitt
12:07
Hey Guy -- your critique does have merit, because that is indeed how our process works, to some degree. We place most value on winning weekend series, and we try to avoid dropping teams that win their weekends. So this week, when almost everybody in the Top 25 won their weekends, there was no real way to reward a team like TCU or Notre Dame that had particularly strong weekends, without dropping other teams that also won their weekends. That said, we do make adjustments over the season when there are more open slots -- we'll jump teams way up when they make loud statements and there are more slots to work with thanks to other teams higher in the rankings losing their series. It's not a perfect process, but we've been at this a while, and I think our process ultimately leads to an accurate picture of which teams are consistent and good.
Jackson
12:08
Do y’all think Clemson has finally turned the corner and is playing better
Aaron Fitt
12:08
Clearly they have turned the corner and are playing better, the only question is whether it's too little, too late. They're still just 6-11 in the ACC, so they still need a very, very strong finish to make a run at regionals.
Karl
12:08
Is LA Tech's chances at an at-large berth into an NCAA Regional basically toast at this point?
Kendall Rogers
12:08
Karl - I don't think so. But MTSU does now have that always important H2H series win. MTSU/UTSA/Louisiana Tech are all teams who I think have a chance to nab a second at-large bid for Conference USA. Now, who goes out and grabs it? It will be fascinating to watch down the stretch.
Joe
12:09
Do you think College of Charleston has any shot at being higher than a 4 seed if they make it?
Aaron Fitt
12:09
Yeah, I think the Cougars could play their way into a 3-seed -- the seeding is almost entirely dependent upon RPI, so CofC just needs to climb from its current spot of 81. If they can finish in the 60s, say, that's probably a 3-seed. They're in much better striking distance for a 3-seed than a lot of other teams currently on the 4-seed line.
stark dawg
12:12
With MSU trending in the right direction winning 6 out of their last 8 and their starting pitching looking very solid as of late. What is your outlook for the rest of their season? What do they have to do to get in the tournament? And what are your thoughts on Brad Cumbest the mayor of Oxford?
Aaron Fitt
12:12
Yeah, suddenly it feels like Mississippi State has real life. Sitting at 8-10 in the SEC feels a whole lot different than 4-8, where they were two weeks ago. And I think the remaining schedule feels manageable: at Missouri, vs. Florida, at A&M, vs. Tennessee. At this point I expect MSU to finish at least 6-6 in those final 12 games, which would get them to 14 SEC wins and a regional bid. And I'd vote for big Brad if I lived in Starkville, assuming Jake Mangum has hit his term limit.
SECbaseball
12:13
The SEC is a gauntlet so nobody is immune to a down swing, but feels like the juggernaut of Florida slipping further and further. Any real long term concerns over the trajectory of the program?
Kendall Rogers
12:13
SECBaseball - I'd be lying if I said I didn't feel like Florida is wobbling a bit. The Gators did host last year, but that wasn't a very good team in all reality. They also played lifeless baseball in the regional. This year, the Gators are pretty young at some key positions, but again, this just doesn't look like an ultra-aggressive, hard-nosed club that was a hallmark of some of Sully's better teams. I would be willing to bet UF is going to hit the portal hard in the offseason. It needs to.
Big 12 Fan
12:13
I know you’ll have weekly projections again, but how do you stack up the Big 12 host scenarios right now?
Every team seems to have something working to it’s advantage. Texas is #9 in the RPI, Ok State is the highest ranked team in the top-25, TCU just beat OSU on the road and is looking pretty atop the standings, Tech is a consensus top-10 team with an awful RPI.
Aaron Fitt
12:13
RPI is king, so right now Tech feels like the team I would bet against hosting, based on that No. 41 RPI. The other three all feel like strong bets to host. Just a matter of how the seeding winds up between them.
Matt
12:14
Not asking in a “why do you hate my team way”, but serious question. If UConn is in your top 20, why is it so low in bracket projection?
Kendall Rogers
12:14
Matt -- Pretty easy answer -- UCONN is a really good club that is being dragged down big-time by its league in terms of its RPI. I hate it for Jim Penders and Co., because that's a pretty damn good club over there (even without Reggie Crawford).
Harris Bradshaw
12:15
Does Wofford have a chance to host?
Aaron Fitt
12:15
Heck, at this point I think we have to take the Terriers serious as a hosting candidate -- they're No. 12 in the RPI, 30-10 overall, 8-1 in the league, 4-4 vs. the top 25 in the RPI and 8-5 against the top 50. If that RPI holds, I think they'd have a shot to host, sure. Only problem is their remaining SoCon schedule seems very likely to drag that RPI down out of hosting range.
Will
12:17
After a rough weekend of one-run losses, is there a path that DBU can still host?
Aaron Fitt
12:17
It feels like DBU's hosting chances should have taken a big hit -- they're now just 5-4 in the league, behind three other teams, with back-to-back series losses to SIU and Bradley, plus two other series losses at home against Wofford and SEMO. But yet, DBU is still No. 4 in the RPI -- so yes, there is still a path. They're only one game out in the standings, and if they win the regular-season with a top-15 RPI, I'll bet they still host.
Captain Crunch
12:18
How Many Big Ten teams do you think make the NCAA Tournament? I think 3 at most
Kendall Rogers
12:18
Cap -- I will say three Big Ten teams get in all likelihood. Maryland, Rutgers (for now) and one of Iowa/Illinois/Michigan.
Planotexan
12:19
Does Texas State have a chance to host?
Kendall Rogers
12:19
They don't. Texas State's RPI is down because of a couple of games, but this is a really good club who is going to be a dangerous, dangerous two seed somewhere at the end of the day. Very offensive lineup and there's just enough pitching to escape through a regional. Don't let that RPI fool you.
Mr. SEC
12:20
Don't have to mention names, but how many SEC coaching jobs will be available after the season? My guess is 3
Kendall Rogers
12:20
Probably 3. I could see a fourth ... but how the rest of the season plays out really matters on the fourth. Yours truly will be a busy busy man early this summer.
Tanner Allen
12:22
Kendall, you had State pegged at a finish of 12-18 last week. Any change to your prediction after the series win at Oxford. Favorable schedule over the next two weekends with @Mizzou and Florida coming to DNF.
Kendall Rogers
12:22
Tanner -- I'm going to change my prediction to 14-16. I think the Dogs go on the road and take the series from Missouri and I'm foolish to think this Florida team is going on the road late in the season and taking a series from State. Florida is a hot mess right now. Series wins: MU, FLA, Series losses: A&M, Tennessee = 14-16, at-large berth. All you can ask for at this point.
Go Frogs
12:22
Ight, whats the deal? Miami wins 2 of 3 at home from unranked Pitt, rises two spots. TCU wins 2 of 3 on the road from #3 pokes, rises 1 spot? The teams in front of them holding serve isn't all that compelling since none of them took a road series from a top 3 club. TCU only has unranked opponents the rest of the way, so I am assuming this is where our ranking will peak even if we win out? Guess we just have to pray that those in front of us lose?
Aaron Fitt
12:22
This was by far our longest debate in the rankings meeting this week. We experimented with the idea of moving TCU into the mid-teens, and even into the top 10 -- but it's just hard to justify moving a team like Notre Dame or Auburn down after a 5-0 week, and a whole bunch of teams that "held serve" or did much better than holding serve would have had to move down in order to run TCU way up. Look, there will be opportunities for us to jump TCU way up very soon if they keep on winning, we'll make the course correction when the opportunity is there in the rankings. But let's not forget also that TCU was out of the Top 25 altogether two weeks ago, coming off 7 losses in a 10-game stretch. That isn't ancient history. The last two weeks have  offset that, but it's not like TCU has some perfect body of work. There are still warts.
Connecting…