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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 27
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Aaron Fitt
12:56
Hey everybody, sorry we're a bit late today. Might be a tight chat today, we've also got to record a Nerdcast shortly. 'Tis the season! Let's dive in.
SmartMuffin
1:00
Help - Kendall Rogers loves my team too much!
Seriously, I love the Beavers... but at some point, do you consider moving them down even if they keep winning their series?  Nobody would really take them over the likes of A&M, Auburn, or Coastal at this point, right?
Aaron Fitt
1:00
I think if Oregon State's key arms are healthy (obviously we're all holding our breath on Dax Whitney after this weekend), the Beavers have the pitching to beat anybody, and they deserve to be ranked right up there where they are — even though they haven't had the opportunity to rack up the high-end wins that the likes of A&M and Auburn have. That said, if Whitney's injury turns out to be serious, they could wind up moving down in the rankings even if they keep winning. And even if he's fine, I think you could see OSU kind of hold steady in that 6 spot while other teams with louder wins leapfrog over them. We probably would have done that with A&M this week if somebody in the top 5 had lost -- but nobody in the top 5 lost, and we didn't think Oregon State deserved to move down, so we just kept it status quo for now.
Buster
1:01
Let's talk hot seat for a minute.  Other than TT/Tadlock, who might find themselves in a little bit of trouble in 4 weeks?
Kendall Rogers
1:01
I'm still very much TBD on if Tadlock is in trouble. I definitely think there's a shot Texas Tech makes a move -- but if I was a betting man, I'd say he gets one more year. As always, I think those things are pretty fluid.

As for jobs that I think will open as of right now:
Houston
Pepperdine
Georgia Southern is an interesting one given how much it is struggling right now.
I've also got my eye on Louisiana to some extent if the Cajuns don't make the NCAA tournament. I'm expecting a relatively active cycle.
WC_Drew
1:02
What does the close weekend series between UCLA & Sacramento St. tell us about the state of West Coast baseball and the state of Midwest baseball?
Aaron Fitt
1:02
Sacramento State's season is wild! They're just 20-25 overall... but they won a series at LSU (yes, it turns out LSU is having a rotten year, but still!) and they nearly won a series against the best team in the country at UCLA. Clearly Reggie Christiansen has a knack for getting his guys to get up for those big matchups, he's a great coach. But I wouldn't read too much into this weekend; a hard-fought little gut check for the Bruins, but they still got it down and won the series. It's hard to play PERFECT baseball for 15 straight weeks, everybody has little speedbumps, sometimes when you do not expect it. See it all the time.
cool 1
Jack
1:02
Most disappointing 6-15 Tiger team, LSU or Clemson?
Kendall Rogers
1:02
Gotta go with the team that was a preseason top five club in LSU. When the pitching has been good, the offense has stunk, and vice versa. And now, with Casan Evans out for a bit and Cooper Moore out for the year, I just think the Tigers, as of right now, are just a pretty below average to bad baseball team. With that said, they most certainly had a chance to win that MSU series over the weekend. Clemson being dead last in the ACC is pretty unacceptable, however. That's wild to me.
Musty the Mustang
1:06
Cal Poly heating up. Dont sleep on the Mustangs
Kendall Rogers
1:06
Neat club. I hate that the RPI for CP is in the mid-80s, because it virtually has no shot for an at-large bert, but it's an interesting club for sure. Casey Murray has continued to hit, and Carson Turnquist is one of the better arms in that league. 11 strikeouts over the weekend, and teams, in Big West play, are hitting just .196 against him. That's incredibly impressive. Agree that they are heating up. Can they win the conference tournament?!
Rowan
1:07
What is there to do with this USC team? Obviously very good metrics with an RPI of 9 and a record of 34-11, but the ey test just hasn’t been there. Still in the hosting hunt or probably a 2 seed?
Kendall Rogers
1:07
Rowan -- the Metrics against Q1 are actually pretty rough for the Trojans. I think USC, for now, is one of those teams where the resume is just filled with empty calories, as we like to say on the NerdCast sometimes. I would not have USC as a host as of today, but finish very strong AND win that road series at Oregon? The Trojans would most certainly have a strong case. But, for me (not sure about Fittsy), it all hinges on that Oregon series. Gotta win that one.
Nathan
1:07
Has a team ever gotten a top 8 seed with only 2 Q1 wins? Oregon State looks to be heading that way.
Aaron Fitt
1:07
And that's really why ultimately I think Oregon State falls short of the top eight -- we even downgraded them a bit in last year's projection. Here's what I wrote in last week's stock report: "given the lack of high-end competition on their remaining schedule, we are concerned that they will struggle to maintain a top-eight-caliber RPI. Oregon State did an admirable job building a very competitive schedule as a Division I independent, but that’s a very difficult thing to do, and the reality is that situation puts the Beavers at a disadvantage relative to SEC, ACC, and Big 12 teams that get to face top-50-type competition every single week. OSU is just 2-2 against quad 1 opponents, which sticks out like a sore thumb compared to other top-eight contenders, and the only remaining opportunities for the Beavers to collect Q1 victories are a pair of midweek games against Oregon." I just don't quite see it happening, but I think they'll be a host.
GeoDawg
1:11
What a strange last 6 weeks from the Dawgs of Mississippi! When is the last time you saw 6 consecutive sweeps from a team that's actually taking some of them? With the tough 9 game conference stretch coming up and other strong host candidates around the country, is it 4-5 or bust for our hosting chances? 16-14 with an rpi around 20 doesn't feel like it'll get the job done to me.
cool 1
Aaron Fitt
1:11
Weird weird weird season -- they have swept four series and been swept (at HOME!) in two others. It's just weird, man! Now it's at Texas, vs. Auburn, at A&M... daunting. Maybe 16-14 gets it down if they can also make a little run in Hoover, but I'd feel a lot better if they can go 4-5 in those last 9 SEC games to get to 17-13.
cool 2
Guest
1:11
Would TN host at 16-14 sec play given that means they finished 12-6 in last 8 sec games and have not lost a midweek all year?
Kendall Rogers
1:11
If they finished 16-14, they'd have a shot, but would probably still be behind a few teams in the pecking order. I don't love that schedule finish for UT -- @ UK, Texas @ Oklahoma. That will not be easy, but hell, if you win two of those three series, you have probably put yourself in a position to earn a host.
Tim T
1:12
What team struggling this year could be the 2026 UCLA of 27/28?
Kendall Rogers
1:12
Given how ridiculous they will probably go in the portal, maybe someone like LSU? That's a pretty tough question without knowing who goes where in the portal.
WC_Drew
1:14
Between Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee, and Alabama (who all have similar records, both overall & SEC), who do you like the best and least right now?
Aaron Fitt
1:14
If I have to bet on one of those teams to make a deep postseason run, I think I'm still leaning toward Florida because I think those arms give them such a high ceiling, but goodness they are a maddening team with their inability to string together multiple good weekends. Tennessee would be the next one for me -- liked what I saw from those guys this weekend and have felt all along that they have Omaha upside if they can peak at the right time. I've still got Arkansas right there with the Vols actually, maybe even a tick ahead -- again, it's real arms, just need more consistent quality at-bats...I haven't abandoned their chances to make an Omaha run, think I'm still higher on them than a lot of my colleagues. For me, Oklahoma and Alabama just feel a tier behind those other three, in terms of long-term outlook. I'm not feeling the Sooners and Tide as Omaha teams, whereas I could see the other three making that kind of run, even as flawed as they have been.
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Coach O
1:15
Can’t spell April without RPI, so who is a team that boosted their resume this month and a team who missed an opportunity to solidify their resume this month?
Kendall Rogers
1:15
Coach O --

The good: Pittsburgh
  • The Panthers just went up 30 spots in the RPI in a single week with a midweek win over WVU and a weekend series win over Virginia, so they would be a big winner. I'd also say Oklahoma State in the past couple of weeks.
  • In terms of biggest losers, LSU would be on that list, as would someone like Baylor, who was enjoying life in the 30s, but is now sitting at 57 with an iffy Big 12 record.
Eric Simmons
1:15
The RPI Needs Report says Georgia Tech can't reach the Top 8.  How is that true?
Kendall Rogers
1:15
I don't think that's true. I like the Needs Report, but if we're being honest, it changes on a week to week basis, so it might be completely wrong by tomorrow.
Walt
1:17
How glad are A&M fans that the administration decided to stick with Earley after a disappointing first year?  They are in a great spot heading down the stretch.  While not nearly as tumultuous as Earley's first year, I think Elander and Tennessee are in a similar boat.  Sticking with him and riding some first-year bumps is the right move.  First year coaches have a lot on their plate, especially in the SEC.
Kendall Rogers
1:17
Firing Elander (which won't happen by the way), would've been dumb no matter what. As an admin, you're basically admitting that you made a piss poor decision, and I can promise you that Danny White is in no position to want to admit that.

As for A&M, the Aggies definitely kicked the tires on Vitello and O'Connor last year (they didn't seem very serious about BOC for whatever reason -- maybe the price tag?) -- but they stuck with Earley, and, boy, has that worked out for them.

The thing about Earley that's intriguing is that he A) will have a ton of NIL money to spend this summer and B) suddenly has a strong nucleus with Wilson, Partida, Kellner, and others all back next season.
GeoDawg
1:19
Vandy has a very real path to 17+ SEC wins and an rpi of 50+. I would love to be a fly on the wall in the committee room for that one!
Aaron Fitt
1:19
Yeah, it will be one of the most fascinating test cases in years if it plays out that way. Could be an opportunity for the committee to lean more on DSR and KPI to see if RPI is a major outlier, although it's worth noting that RPI currently has Vandy at 68 and DSR has them at 39, while KPI kinda splits the difference at 53. Those three metrics average out to 53.3, so not much help those other metrics really provide Vandy -- that's still not good enough. The Commodores just dug themselves into such a deep hole metrically in the preconference, gonna be hard to dig all the way out of it. And unbalanced conference schedules are a complicating factor, making it so just getting to 17 SEC wins doesn't necessarily make you a shoo-in, not when you finish with South Carolina and Missouri the last two weeks. Anyway, not sure how it's gonna play out, still think it's gonna be a hard path, but will be fascinating to follow.
cool 1
DaAggies
1:19
Who are some teams that are in hosting contention, but you think may struggle come postseason just due to the formatting of regionals?
Kendall Rogers
1:19
We mentioned this last night on the Podcast, but I don't love the 'let's find a way to figure it out' ness of Georgia. I'm not saying Georgia will lose in a regional, but that approach spooks me. With that said, Caden Aoki was terrific in his start yesterday, so maybe that burden in the three-hole in the rotation is over with. I also think A&M is relatively similar, and cannot afford to get into a loser's bracket in a regional.
John
1:23
How does Cincinnati look? 10-11 big 12 record, but an RPI of 20? Winnable weekends coming up.
Kendall Rogers
1:23
I think the Bearcats are in a pretty good spot right now. Excellent RPI, some high end RPI wins. Unless they just tank to the end the regular season (and thus destroying their league record), they're in the field in my book.
Eric Simmons
1:24
Is it auto bid or bust for LSU regarding their NCAA Tournament hopes? I think it might be after getting swept in 3 straight SEC Series
Kendall Rogers
1:24
As the kids would say, LSU is pretty much cooked without winning the SEC tournament. I guess the Tigers could win all three remaining series, but I don't think there's a person in America outside of Chris Guillot who thinks that's possible.
CD
1:25
How close do you feel Southern Miss is to locking in a regional host? Is it their's to lose? Even though LSU has been swept the last 3 weekends, does this past weekend flip the hosting projection from Ole Miss to State?
Aaron Fitt
1:25
Certainly Southern Miss is in very good shape at the moment with a No. 8 RPI and a better Sun Belt record (13-8) after that shaky first month or so in conference play. But looking at the schedule ahead, I think it's more likely the Eagles finish in the mid-teens in the RPI, which could put them right there on the edge of hosting. So "locking it in" won't be easy, they're just gonna have to keep winning. But as we've often said, they built themselves up a lot of capital in the nonconference with some really good wins. Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State remains so tricky, considering the Bulldogs have that head-to-head sweep, but the Rebels still have an RPI advantage, but now State is two games better in the standings. Trying to separate them is tough, but what sticks out to me is that Ole Miss is 17-12 against teams that were in our field of 64 last week, while MSU is 7-10 vs. the field. That's jarring -- and makes me still lean toward the Rebels.
sad 1 cool 1
Vince
1:26
How many series wins, or SEC wins overall, does it take for Monte Lee to earn the South Carolina job?
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