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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: Feb. 23
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Matt M
12:39
Oregon State, Tennessee, Florida State - who should be panicking and why?
Kendall Rogers
12:39
I'm not sure about panicking, but as good as Oregon State's starting pitching is, the offense is equally rough right now. Jacob Krieg finally tap into some power yesterday, but overall, the Beavers just don't have a lot of juice offensively. They started off slow last season, too, but also had a couple of guys named Aiva Arquette and Gavin Turley in the lineup. I'm not entirely sure of anyone in this lineup who emerges to that level this season. They are going to need to pitch extremely well throughout the year to have a great season IMO.
Matthee
12:41
Why is it that Camden Kozeal flies under the radar nationally compared to some of the other second basemen? He was a top recruit who put up very good numbers last year but it seems there wasn’t much expectation for him this year and he’s been the hogs best hitter through two weeks
Kendall Rogers
12:41
Good to see you in here Mr. Kozeal. We appreciate your work at the College World Series. I don't think he flies under the radar. We've highlighted him quite a bit over the past couple of weeks. In addition to being very strong offensively so far this season, I pointed out last week that his defense was a strong trait as well. He was very good going into the hole two weekends ago at Globe Life. Heck of a start to the season -- just leave those Dillos alone. :)
Billy
12:42
Super disappointed in the rankings this week. TCU has as many run-rule losses as wins (both by 1 run) and a midweek loss. They have, by far, the worst record of any team in the top 25. If these teams are as good as you think (TCU, Tennessee, Oregon State, etc.), they will prove it by winning. You don't need to prop them up artificially to avoid admitting you were wrong. Why bother sending the D1 staff to see all of these games if the rankings are just what you thought of teams based on fall scrimmages? Otherwise we would be celebrating a Texas A&M national championship last year
Aaron Fitt
12:42
See, Billy, some teams play on the road at the No. 1 team in the country and get shellacked -- their 0-3 weekend isn't a GOOD weekend, and that's why they get hammered in the rankings, down 11 spots. But they also DID have a good weekend in Week One, and unlike many many other teams with better records, they have played elite competition two weeks in a row. Sure, they could just schedule a bunch of patsies and be sitting there at 8-0 right now, and you'd have no problem with them being ranked. We do like teams that challenge themselves. If they had lost both weekends, like Louisville has so far, they would be out of the rankings (like Louisville is). But they went 2-1 the first weekend, and they got steamrolled by a juggernaut on the road this weekend -- it happens. We get that their 2-5 record is an eye sore, but I stand by our process here. Sorry if you don't like it!
Marc
12:43
Any concerns about Texas A&M? Pitching looked great over the weekend, but the bats did not show up and they very easily could have been 1-2 instead of 3-0 against Penn.
Kendall Rogers
12:43
It's February baseball and you could and, if, or but your way through a lot of games. The fact they still swept the series despite being pushed to the brink was a bright spot -- especially considering they didn't have Caden Sorrell for some of the action, and Chris Hacopian was out with a sore lower back. I think the Aggies will be offensively. I was more so encouraged by the pitching, particularly Aiden Sims, whom I pinpointed as a breakout candidate this season. Sims has 17 strikeouts through 13 innings, along with just two walks. He has been as advertised.
Rigsby
12:45
What was your biggest take away from Round Rock this weekend?
Kendall Rogers
12:45
I thought Southern Miss looked like the clear best team in the field. I want to see more of McCarty English moving forward, but thought Grayden Harris was very sharp, and the bullpen was stout with Cam Sunstrom, Cam Clark and others. I think the bottom of the USM lineup can be pitched to a little bit, but boy, the top of that lineup is strong. Joey Urban is such a treat to watch. Purdue was the other bright spot. Remember the name Westin Boyle. Absolute. Dude.
George
12:45
Wake Forest Rotation Q:Do you see Chris Levonas making the leap to the Friday night starter given Blake Morningstar's struggles?
Aaron Fitt
12:45
I am on record as being a major believer in Morningstar, and I think he's going to find his stride and run with that Friday job, so I would not expect Levonas to take it over this year. Not a dream start to the year for Morningstar, but he's got all the ingredients to be a first-team All-American. I'm standing by him and I'm sure the Deacs will also.
BOC
12:48
Excited to see BOC and the Dawgs take on some quality competition this weekend. Thoughts so far on Miss State and predictions for how they will fare this weekend? Thanks!
Aaron Fitt
12:48
Certainly a good start for the Bulldogs, albeit against overmatched Northern competition that they should dominate. I think we will learn a lot more about them at Globe Life, and I am really looking forward to being there and watching them take on Arizona State and UCLA. But so far, so good -- all the reasons we ranked them No. 4 heading into the season have been validated to this point. It's a good, deep, balanced lineup with plenty of firepower on the mound. They've gotten a bunch of guys involved early on, in the lineup and on the mound, and I think that's a good thing.
Confused
12:50
Why didn't Coastal far more in the rankings after getting beat by two teams below .500 in the same week?  "without 3 of their best arms" was the reasoning provided, but all teams deal with injuries...is the Top 25, then, based more on perceived potential than results on the diamond?
Aaron Fitt
12:50
Usually teams that go 2-2 but win their weekends stay put in the rankings, sometimes even climb. They rarely drop three spots, that's just the way it works. But we did drop them three spots because we are concerned about the injuries, and because it was not a very good 2-2 week (some 2-2 weeks are different than others). But I still don't think it merited hammering them much more than that.
Devils
12:53
Not a Top 25 question but who throws some of the best/nastiest pitches that you’ve seen?
Kendall Rogers
12:53
I'll go ahead and throw Dax Whitney's 87-90 mph slider in the mix. Whitney's slider was a little softer last year, but he added more velocity with it since that point. It was absolutely filthy over the weekend in Round Rock, especially when you combine that with a heater at 98-100 mph. The only bad thing is that Whitney set the bar so damn high, it'll be hard to equal that.
Aaron Fitt
12:59
I've seen some great arms already this year. Jackson Flora of UCSB has four legit pitches, and I would nominate his elite fastball, which sits 96-99 and bumps 100 with elite ride and has generated a 30% whiff rate so far (95th percentile). His slider and sweeper are also real weapons, but the eye opener for him has been his newly developed kick changeup, which has a ridiculous 50% whiff rate so far. I was not expecting that pitch to be such a weapon, but it is. Ethan Norby's 3200 rpm slider is also on my short list of nastiest pitches, just going on guys I've seen so far this spring.
Realist
12:55
It's hard to balance preseason projections and potential vs actual results this early in the year, but do the Beavers really look like a top 20 team outside of Dax Whitney so far?
Aaron Fitt
12:55
That's a tricky one -- I think it is one of the best pitching staffs in the country, so it's not just Whitney. Kleinschmit and Segura and Morris are all really good starters also, and I actually really like their bullpen pieces too, even though those guys might not have been as impressive this weekend. Ulimately, I think it's a no-brainer top-five staff in the country, and that gives this team a solid floor. But as we discussed in today's podcast, the lineup is concerning (as it was heading into the season -- that's why Oregon State was ranked 12 or 13 in the preseason instead of top five, because it was definitely a top-five pitching staff). I just don't think they have the kind of firepower there to ever really be a scary offensive unit. I do think they can continue to improve and maybe become a competent, small ball-oriented offense. But there's a lot of work to do. Will be an interesting team to follow this year.
Michael
1:02
I know it is very early yet, but the B1G has really racked up a bunch of ranked wins in the first two weeks. Could the Big 10 get more like 5 or 6 bids this year instead of the typical 3 or 4?  A lot of teams looking good early on.
Aaron Fitt
1:02
We talked about this on today's podcast also -- it's just so critical to get off to a good start collectively in nonconference play, so that you help each other when you face off in conference play. The SEC dominates nonconference stuff every year, and that's a major reason why the SEC is such a force in the RPI. So the fact that the Big Ten has seven teams at 5-2 or better, and another four teams at 4-3, and then another two more at a respectable 3-4 -- that means this league is building a solid RPI foundation. There are enough very good programs here, I don't see why the Big Ten can't wind up being a five-bid league. Six feels like a stretch, but I wouldn't put it outside the realm of possibility.
Guest
1:07
What about USC?
Kendall Rogers
1:07
I've got my eye on the Trojans for sure. How about that pitching from Sean Allen's pitching staff over the weekend? Mason Edwards was filthy with 11 strikeouts in six no-hit innings, Grant Govel, after throwing a no-hitter against Pepperdine on Opening Weekend, struck out 11 and allowed just 1 hit in six innings, and Andrew Johnson allowed just one run on four hits in five innings in the finale. That's super impressive, and we're keeping track of it for sure.
Coleman Field
1:08
I'm a really big KSTATE fan and I've been watching their games. They seem to struggle offensively some games and then go off the next game. But in my opinion maybe they could win the Big 12. They look really good right now. It would be cool to see them in Omaha.
Aaron Fitt
1:08
Yeah, I'm quite high on this K-State team. Love that returning core with Kennedy, Evasco, Lodice, Inoue -- I have a high degree of confidence in that group, and Carlos Vasquez has been a great addition, obviously. It's baseball, and they've played a strong schedule; nobody hits EVERY game. But I think the early returns on that offense are extremely encouraging, and I feel pretty good about the pitching staff too. Definitely think it's a Top 25-caliber team (they were right on the cusp for us this week), and a bona fide Big 12 title contender.
DaAggies
1:11
What was your most surprising performances this week, good and bad?
Kendall Rogers
1:11
I would say in terms of bad, I was really surprised that TCU got dominated by UCLA over the weekend. Even without Tommy LaPour, I thought the Frogs would make that series interesting. But goodness, the top-ranked Bruins just mopped the floor of them. On the good side of things, how about Kent State? Safe to say Jeff Duncan's club is very battle tested at this point.
Brendan
1:12
TCU is striking out at an alarming rate (29.8%) on offense.  Is this probably just a product of who they've played on the schedule early on or a sign of troubles to come?
Kendall Rogers
1:12
Probably mostly the competition. TCU played to shelf competition opening weekend (and went 2-1, by the way), and played the No. 1 team on the road. I still feel pretty good about the top half of the lineup. We will see on the bottom half. If you think back to my fall report on the Frogs, I was slightly concerned about the bottom half of the lineup for a reason.
Eric
1:12
Who look to be the top teams in the Big 10? Outside of UCLA, is there anyone that could make a run at it?
Aaron Fitt
1:12
I certainly liked Oregon's team heading into the season, and so far the Ducks have done exactly what they should do, dominating in four-game sweeps of George Mason and Youngstown State. There's only so much you can learn from results against that kind of competition, but it's worth noting that Youngstown held Auburn to four runs in the first two games of the season (both 2-1 Auburn wins), so the Ducks outscoring the Penguins 43-7  is something. We'll learn a lot more about Oregon this weekend in Vegas, great competition there -- but my gut says the Ducks are team most likely to give UCLA a run for its money at the top of the Big Ten. USC also sounds like a contender, and I think we've seen some neat flashes from Michigan and Nebraska -- that's a solid next tier in the Big Ten, I think. But I'd have that group behind Oregon and UCLA, personally.
Sam
1:13
How has the Sun Belt gone two years in a row without scheduling a Southern Miss vs Coastal Carolina regular season series?
Aaron Fitt
1:13
Yep. Very disappointing!
Erik
1:17
Nebraska's RPI is 155, and they really *should* have been 3-0 this weekend. I know RPI doesn't really matter at this point, but do you feel validated having Nebraska in the field pre-season or are they in trouble?
Kendall Rogers
1:17
RPI means literally nothing right now. To give you an idea of how pointless it is right now, Georgia is one spot ahead of the Huskers at 154. A couple of tough, close losses over the weekend, but a MASSIVE opportunity for the Huskers this weekend in Auburn. That series is what you'd call an RPI Bonanza.
Joe
1:20
How different would your top 25 look today based on results this year if you take away preseason expectations? Any major moves?
Aaron Fitt
1:20
See, the tricky thing with this kind of approach is what do you do with a team that swept back to back series against, say, Hofstra and Delaware (as Mississippi State did), or Bowling Green and Stony Brook (as Georgia Tech did)? They're undefeated -- but I don't think that 8-0 performance would get a team into the Top 25 if you were starting from scratch after two weeks, because you have to beat better competition to make noise. But clearly Mississippi State and Georgia Tech belong high in the rankings, and they have taken care of business so far, so they deserve to stay put where they were in the preseason Top 25. There are a lot of examples like that. Quality of competition just varies SO dramatically from team to team in the preseason, and I think too many people are too reactionary and over-index on a team's record after one or two weeks of the season, rather than consider the caliber of competition. If you just started from scratch this week (or any week), the Top 25 would look unrecognizable, I think.
Guest
1:23
What was the most surprising outcome from Round Rock? USM going 3-0, OSU going 1-2, or Purdue going 2-1?
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