JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 10

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 10

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Aaron Fitt

1:03

Hey everybody, let's dive right in.

Baldy

1:05

Kendall, can you speak to the situation at Rice? Unfortunately, my Owls have fallen from the competitive levels of college baseball. Its become an embarrassment. Has something changed within the framework of the program to lead to the current stage? I cant figure out how we went from Omaha contender to being swept at home by Yale in front of no fans in a 10-year window. Thanks

Kendall Rogers

1:05

Baldy -- Great question. The issue with Rice right now is two fold: 1) There's a lot of apathy around the program right now, and that typically doesn't breed a ton of success. 2) There just isn't a lot of high-end talent in the program. I do really like Hickson has a couple of arms, for instance, but overall, the talent gap with the Owls and even a normal contender is just massive. On top of that, in today's climate, the only way you're going to improve is to either have a year where you shatter expectations, or get your alums to work on NIL to try to turn things around. But guess what? It's kind of hard to energize your alums when the program is a cellar dweller at the moment. Rice is in a very tough spot right now. You have to believe changes are on the horizon. I honestly hate seeing what Rice Baseball has become. I grew up on that program being fantastic and putting 3-4K daily into Reckling Park. Here's to the Owls figuring it out sometime soon.

Daniel

1:06

How concerned as a Trojan fan should I be after the Oregon sweep this weekend?
What does Georgia Tech need to do to make the top 25?

Aaron Fitt

1:06

I wouldn't be too concerned about that weekend for USC -- it was a competitive series, and Oregon is really good, feels like the Ducks are the clear-cut class of the Big Ten. This weekend probably showed that the Trojans aren't quite in that same category, but that's OK, they can still be a regional-caliber team. As for Georgia Tech, that was a nice road series win at VT, putting the Jackets on the Top 25 radar (their nonconference schedule was soft however so they're still a little light for the Top 25). Another strong week could get them in, depending on how they stack up against other Top 25 contenders, and there are a bunch of good ones just outside the rankings, several of whom have higher-quality wins than GT has so far.

Lovesbaseball

1:07

Does Texas have the pitching/bullpen to make a deep run in their first year in the SEC?

Kendall Rogers

1:07

Love -- I tend to think the Texas bullpen gets exposed at some point -- it has had some rough moments at times already this season. But if there's one thing I know, it's that a Max Weiner pitching staff typically gets better and better as the season progresses. The fact that Spencer/Harrison/Volantis are all very solid takes immense pressure off the bullpen. We'll see if things change this weekend at Dudy Noble. That is going to be infinitely different than what the Longhorns are used to in the Big 12. Should be an exciting weekend at The Dude.

Greg

1:07

Will Duncan Marsten pitch this spring?

Aaron Fitt

1:07

The last I heard, he should be back in action sooner rather than later. I'll circle back for another update this week, but I was expecting we'd see him in the next week or two. Getting those freshman arms healthy is crucial for Wake Forest, I think -- they're a really good club regardless, but throwing those blue-chip freshman arms into the mix could elevate them to elite.

Greg

1:11

The preseason top two are now at #19 and #23. Who has been more disappointing to you this season and why?

Aaron Fitt

1:11

A push -- both have been major disappointments through the first month, obviously. Of course, both of them have been hampered by injury to a critical preseason All-American (Grahovac for A&M, Blanco for UVa, although he's building his way back up, but still hasn't been a weekend starter, let alone the Friday night ace we expected him to be). But I thought both of these offenses would be truly elite, and I still expect them to get to that level eventually. Just surprised how long the early-season struggle has lingered. It's baseball, it's a long season, and I am not giving up on either of these teams -- far from it. I think both will still be in Omaha. But they need to go ahead and get hot already...

Eric Simmons

1:12

What will it take for Kansas and West Virginia to be ranked?.

Kendall Rogers

1:12

Eric -- both are in the discussion, but both also have played rather easy schedules so far this season. With that said, very impressed with the way WVU has played overall in Steve Sabins' first season as head coach. That is not easy to do. WVU would likely be ranked next week with a road series win over OK State. As for Kansas, we will know a lot more about these guys soon with improved BU in town this weekend + plus trips to Arizona/ASU coming up in two weeks. They are both on our radar.

FittsMagic

1:14

Are you guys sold on UGa as a true Top 5 team or is it just a case of handling business (so far) against lower competition?

Aaron Fitt

1:14

I think I probably have more conviction in the Bulldogs than some of my colleagues, who have some more lingering questions about their pitching, which is probably justifiable given some of the pedestrian numbers of a few of their key guys. But I believe in the talent and depth of that staff and that lineup, and I'm encouraged that they have found a way to reel off an 18-1 record without really playing their best, even though it has been against lesser competition. I think they're a legit Omaha team. Obviously SEC play will give us a better barometer very quickly, but I'm a believer.

Brandon

1:15

Thoughts on Louisville's play early this season and are they close to cracking D1 Top 25?

Kendall Rogers

1:15

Brandon -- A big fan of the way the Cardinals have started the season with ACC play here. Obviously, I saw the Cards on Opening Weekend, and liked several aspects of this team. Patrick Forbes, who was fantastic for me at Globe Life, has continued to dominate with 39 strikeouts and just three walks in 21 innings, and freshman standout Tague Davis, who struggled the weekend I saw the Cards, is now hitting over .400 with a team-high 18 RBIs. I think I wrote it that weekend, but you could tell he was a guy who would break out in due time. U of L checks a lot of boxes. This weekend's series with UNC will tell us a lot, IMO.

Greg

1:16

Is San Diego still the favorite in the WCC after a 2-13 start? It's been a brutal schedule, but the only team they've beaten is 6-10 Bakersfield and they've really struggled against power conference arms.

Aaron Fitt

1:16

I'm definitely spooked by that start for USD, and I don't think you can consider them the WCC favorite anymore. League feels wide open to me, but if I had to pick one, I'd probably lean toward Saint Mary's.

Lovesbaseball

1:20

Levi Clark at TN. Isn’t it great when high schoolers opt for a college experience and development over the draft? The minors can’t be as fun as college fans, real college life experience and you can make millions later. Do you think this will encourage more to opt for college first?

Aaron Fitt

1:20

We've seen a bunch of these high-profile high school players take the college route in recent years, and certainly this year was a banner class of them (Curiel and Schmidt at LSU are two other very obvious ones that leap out). College baseball is booming, and players really can develop under state-of-the-art conditions with top-quality instructors in the college ranks, while getting an experience that is probably a more enjoyable and better maturation environment for the typical 18-22 year old, compared with the minor league grind. I think the college route just plain makes more sense for the majority of high school prospects, with some exceptions, of course.

Power Major

1:22

UCSB has not looked dominant & heads to a tough environment (Hawaii) before a monster series w/ Irvine in 2 weeks: what would be a success for the Gauchos in those 6 games?

Aaron Fitt

1:22

Gauchos did have to work hard to sweep that CSUN series, but they did still sweep it -- credit to them for being up for a fight, and credit the Matadors for giving them a good one. Heck they're still 13-2, I feel pretty good about where UCSB is sitting. You're right, an important couple of weeks coming up, and I think winning both series would be a success, so call it 4-2.

Jake

1:22

Any reason to believe in Baylor or is it Baylor just beating bad teams?

Kendall Rogers

1:22

Jake -- I'm not going to come out and say Baylor is BACK for good, but there's zero question the Bears are much improved this season under Mitch Thompson. Baylor is dominating games that is was simply losing last season. That alone makes me think the Bears vastly improved. The other thing that gives me some hope is that the Bears have been much better on the mound. Ethan Calder continues to be very good and freshman Carson Bailey has been excellent as well with 22 strikeouts in 16.1 innings of work. The offense has some dangerous pieces, too. Wesley Jordan and Hunter Simmons have been wrecking balls, and we were already pretty high on Enzo Apodaca. This weekend should tell us a lot about the Bears' standing in the league, along with Kansas for the matter.

WestCoastAl

1:24

In the past, we’ve seen the committee extent lots of RPI grace to west coast teams. Will the former PAC-12 schools joining eastern leagues still get that leeway? Where would schools Stanford, Oregon, and ASU need their RPIs to sit to be viable hosts?

Aaron Fitt

1:24

That's a great question! And I don't know the answer. My guess is they probably won't NEED that grace, because being forced outside their geographic bubble more often will probably result in better RPIs for all of them. It will definitely be interesting to see how the committee handles West Coast RPI in the realignment era.

Lovesbaseball

1:25

Levi Clark at Tennessee. Isn’t it great when high schoolers opt for

Kendall Rogers

1:25

LOVE -- Huge fan of Levi Clark. I was talking to our David Seifert during the fall and he couldn't have been higher on the potential of Clark, along with fellow Vols freshman Jay Abernathy. Clark has been an absolute super star from an offensive standpoint, and he most certainly does not look like a freshman in the batter's box. That is a built up, veteran like frame for sure. Excited to see how Clark and the other youngsters look against Florida this weekend.

Travis

1:31

Based on the way this season is unfolding and unless something changes overnight in Big 12 play, it looks like Texas Tech is spiraling towards its worst season in decades and possibly an all-time low for the program. With the intel you have about Tim Tadlock, his staff, and how the university/donors view baseball, what sort of changes don't just need to happen but are likely to be made for the program? Is it remotely possible Tadlock ends up on a serious hot seat?

Kendall Rogers

1:31

Travis -- I think Texas Tech's issues are two-fold. 1) I don't think the Red Raiders have done a very good job with roster construction. This is not a big-time power hitting type of lineup, which is the total opposite of what you'd want with RGP as your home ballpark. It makes little sense. On top of that, Tech ranks 209th nationally in staff ERA right now with a 7.17 staff ERA. That's awful. I get that Tech has played a somewhat tough schedule with several road games, but that is very rough. I think anyone with a clue kind of knows what the issues around LBK are right now. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on a Tim Tadlock-coached team just yet ... but I'm close.

Matt

1:31

Do you think if NC State sweeps this week (4-0 against NC A&T & VT) they make it back into the top 25 next week?

Aaron Fitt

1:31

Definitely feels like the Wolfpack are back on track after that early slide -- they've reeled off 8 straight wins and looked good doing it, although the schedule was certainly favorable. A 4-0 week would definitely put them back in the Top 25 mix, but they're currently behind a bunch of others with better wins on their resumé, so NC State is probably a couple weeks away from being ranked again. Definitely trending in the right direction, however.

Dawg

1:33

Thoughts on Mississippi State? Were they close to rejoining the rankings this week?

Aaron Fitt

1:33

Good bounceback week for the Bulldogs -- we didn't really have any spots to bring them back in, and we had to force Stanford in by dropping a team that won its weekend, because the Cardinal just had to get into the rankings after winning that road series against a top five team. If we had more spots open, I think MSU would have been strongly in that conversation.

Heel

1:36

What is your outlook on UNC after getting a close look at them against Stanford? On Friday, the Heels made a number of mistakes and then on Sunday just were shut down by Volchko. 2 straight road conference series await, so feels like we'll learn alot about this club with how they respond.

Aaron Fitt

1:36

Yeah, the Heels just didn't play their best this weekend, and Stanford played a wonderful game on Sunday, so tip your cap to a very good opponent whose quality arms bested UNC's own quality arms. That series could have looked different if UNC had played better defense on the infield -- there were some plays that could have been and probably should have been made that were not made, opening the floodgates on both Friday and Sunday. So that's something to monitor, but certainly I don't have any kind of serious concerns about UNC. That's an elite Carolina team that should remain one of the top favorites to win the ACC.

SDSouthpaw

1:37

Tell me I'm wrong, but I'm starting to think the demise of the Pac-12 will be the best thing that ever happened to baseball on the west coast. Scattering the Pac teams into conferences around the country (or not, Oregon St.) will allow fans everywhere the opportunity to witness how good these teams are and will provide a new diversity of opponents that will bolster the RPI/DSR/ISR, etc., of the west coast teams. The latter will help all of the teams on the west coast, not just the ones in new conferences.

Aaron Fitt

1:37

I think you're spot-on with the RPI point. Time will tell how much the wear and tear of all that travel will affect these teams, but certainly playing in these national conferences should address the geographic isolation issues that have resulted in decades worth of RPI woes for the West.

WestCoastBestCoast

1:41

Do the 4 PAC schools entering the B1G solidify that as the 4th best conference in baseball?

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