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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 11
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Aaron Fitt
12:07
Hey everybody, thanks for joining us. Let's dive in!
Andrew
12:09
I know it’s early, but it seems Louisiana may have saved their at large chances with B2B walk offs against Tulane. Series losses to Rice and Tulane would have been tough. You guys agree with that assessment?
Kendall Rogers
12:09
Andrew -- They definitely saved their chances to some degree barring a massive run in the Sun Belt race this spring. I can't quite pinpoint what the issue might be with the Cajuns right now. I thought the offense was a little blah at the Astros Foundation Classic. I think UL will pitch enough this spring -- but they will need to hit much better in conference play. Someone outside of DeBarge, etc, needs to step up.
Heel
12:10
How would you tier the ACC right now? Seems like the league is flush with talent and plenty of teams that can make a run at hosting this year.
Aaron Fitt
12:10
Yeah I think you're spot-on -- there is impressive depth of teams with hosting potential in the ACC this year. Heading into the season, I think everybody had Wake in its own tier at the top; now I think it's clear that the Deacs have some things to figure out, and I would put them in the same tier as Duke and Clemson at the top. I would probably still have that trio just a tick ahead of the next tier, which would be NC State, UNC, UVa and FSU for me (I know the Seminoles haven't really played anybody yet, but we all expected they would be much improved, and that sure seems to be the case). Then I'd have Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Louisville pretty close behind, as a tier of intriguing teams that all have a chance to jump up into the hosting race. And even the cold-weather wing behind that group feels plenty competitive.
Ryan
12:11
Florida vs. A&M this weekend.  Series of the week?  Winner of that series obviously gets an early resume bump, but does the loser of the series hurt too bad it the games are close?
Kendall Rogers
12:11
Ryan -- I don't think the loser of the series is necessarily hurt 'bad' -- but I think Florida is the team that has more to lose. A&M has looked extremely consistent across the board so far this season, granted Florida is a massive step up in competition. The Gators have not been as consistent, though it continues to win weekend series. I expect A&M to win this series on the road, I think.
Greg
12:13
Any idea what's happening with Nick Kurtz? He's done little offensively this spring aside from drawing walks and he was 0-fer against Duke.
Aaron Fitt
12:13
Kurtz seems out of sorts in all phases right now -- he's a premier defender at first base, and he didn't even look very good on defense this weekend, which was odd. I think he wasn't seeing a lot of good pitches to hit early and maybe he then started to press -- feels like he's just not quite synced up when he does get a pitch he should punish. Obviously he's still getting on base -- 20 walks and 11 strikeouts is a good thing. Is he being too passive? I don't know about that; I still like to see elite hitters show patience even when they aren't putting up power numbers. He's too talented to stay down for long; I am confident he'll figure it out and get very hot. Wake certainly needs him to -- that's a much different lineup when Kurtz is locked in.
CHANDLER
12:16
thoughts on Nebraska? Another series win and another come from behind win down multiple runs. Historically Nebraska is a top 20 or 30 team defensively but this year they are surrendering too many errors (eventually going to hurt them I would assume). What is your outlook on the team so far? Tough week coming up with 2 at Wichita St and 3 at home against a decent Nichols team. GBR!
Kendall Rogers
12:16
I like the pulse of this Nebraska team a lot. I think I've said this a few times over the past few weeks, but I thought it had a solid, balanced lineup to go with some solid pitching depth at Globe Life a couple of weeks ago. That has proven to be the case since that point. Yes, the Huskers had that stinker in the opener against South Al, but ultra-impressed with the way they played the rest of the weekend. Definitely looks like a regional club at this juncture.
cool 1
Demonizer
12:17
Can't wait to hear this explanation.   Wake loses a weekend series to a good Duke team and drops quite a few spots.  I am sure there is no SEC bias but I can't wait to hear the explanation for this nonsense.  I'll hang up and listen.
Aaron Fitt
12:17
I mean, Florida WON its series (but had a mediocre 2-2 week) and dropped four spots. TCU lost a road series and dropped seven spots. A lot has to do with what the other teams around you do, and in Wake's case, it seemed clear that Duke deserved to jump up ahead of the Deacs after winning that series on Wake's home turf, especially considering Wake hasn't really played that well this year against a pretty soft nonconference schedule, and Duke has played exceptionally well and already had a marquee weekend under its belt at Coastal in Week One. Also the fact is Wake Forest is not as good as it was last year, full stop. The Deacs have a lot to figure out -- the bullpen isn't as good, the lineup isn't as deep, and the defense behind the plate has taken a big hit without Bennett Lee. Wake is still an excellent team and I believe it will still be a top-8 type team, but it has not played anywhere close to peak capacity yet. The drop was warranted.
Cam
12:18
What worries do you have about the Noles? Pitching depth?
Kendall Rogers
12:18
I feel pretty good about FSU right now. Yes, the Noles were not in the Top 25 this week, but they will be very soon if they continue winning. I was just talking to an opposing coach this morning about FSU, and beyond having a scary offensive lineup and a solid rotation, the only potential thing to watch is the bullpen moving forward. It has been solid, but not great.
Noah
12:20
What do you make of USM winning 4 series in a row, but dropping a game in each? Obviously the offense looked better this weekend, but have to imagine a sweep of one or two of Missouri St/Indiana St/La Tech would bring some ranking considerations. Winning midweeks vs SEC teams could also help too
Aaron Fitt
12:20
Yeah you're exactly right -- on the whole I think Southern Miss should feel pretty good about winning its first four weekends, but a 10-6 overall record doesn't scream "rank me" (it would probably be enough to keep the Eagles in the Top 25 if they had started in the rankings -- it's just not quite enough to break into the Top 25 from outside the rankings, if that makes sense). But series wins at La Tech, vs. Indiana State and vs. Missouri State are all quality weekends, and I have a feeling those series will set this team up very well for postseason positioning. Seems like the USM offense is heating up too, which is definitely encouraging after a slow start offensively.
Kyle
12:21
How dire is the situation for the Iowa Hawkeyes sitting at 7-8? They have a midweek against Georgia this week and a home series against WIU before Big Ten play.
Kendall Rogers
12:21
Kyle -- Great question. Iowa is a really odd team. I'm a believer in the offense and the starting pitching, but the bullpen has been a hot mess since day one this season. The issue for the Hawkeyes moving forward is they basically have nothing on their resume in non-conference play. That basically means Iowa will need to just dominate the Big Ten schedule for the most part, which seems like a bold ask considering how well a few Big Ten teams are playing right now. Iowa is definitely in trouble at this juncture.
GeoDawg
12:23
IF Dohm is healthy, can the Bulldogs be a regional club? Free passes and errors are way down so far this year and ever since Mershon made it into the order, the offense has been clicking. If Dohm is good to go, call me Hopeful!
Aaron Fitt
12:23
I'm making a Magnolia State run this weekend, very eager to get a look at the Bulldogs to see just how much better they look. It hasn't been the strongest schedule, but Evansville is a dangerous veteran club (very old group there) so that's a quality sweep. State's pitching has been really good lately, but obviously Nate Dohm's status is a big key. Fingers crossed on that one. Agreed on Mershon being a big difference maker -- he's just one of those winning players that simply needs to play because he makes everyone around him better. Definitely an energy giver and a catalyst.
MB
12:23
Who’s your Sun Belt dark horse on the horizon of conference play?
Kendall Rogers
12:23
South Alabama and Texas State would be top of mind for me. USA just because it entered the season not expected to do a lot. I know the Bobcats of TXS are struggling a little right now -- they're pressing offensively right now. But I still like the offensive lineup and they pitched well enough over the weekend against Sam Houston to take that series.
Guest
12:26
Should Kentucky fans be worried after the thumping they took this weekend against Kennesaw State?
Aaron Fitt
12:26
I'm not entirely sure what to make of that weekend. On the one hand, I do like Kennesaw's talent quite a bit, and the Owls also made a splash by thumping Clemson in a game earlier this year -- I think that offense is quite dangerous and they have some good arms too. At least Travis Smith pitched OK on Friday, that game just got out of hand against the UK bullpen. Ultimately our main concerns about Kentucky heading into the season were on the mound, so giving up 23 runs in the first two games this weekend wasn't a great sign. But the Wildcats have played an OK schedule and mostly pitched well to this point, so I'll give them a pass. This weekend against Georgia should be telling.
DAWGS
12:26
What a difference in pitching and defense for Miss State so far this year. Bats starting to wake up this weekend as well. Thoughts on the Dawgs going forward as they enter their gauntlet of an SEC schedule. Can this team get back to the postseason? Thanks.
Kendall Rogers
12:26
DAWGS -- Let's see how things go this weekend and in SEC play, but there are plenty of signs that this team is vastly improved. From how things are going on the mound to how this team is handling adversity (this is HUGE for me), it seems improved. The proof is in the pudding in SEC play, but there are signs of plenty of progress. That's all you can ask for so far this season.
Beavs AB
12:29
It’s early, but how many Pac-12 teams are likely to make the tournament in the conference’s final year? Any chance the weakness of the conference drags down Oregon State in the hosting race? Feels like Beavs need to win the conference going away to have a chance.
Aaron Fitt
12:29
Yeah.... the Pac has really gotten off to a rough start as a whole. Right now it feels like Oregon State, Cal and Oregon are regional teams. I still think Arizona has a chance to make a run at a regional bid as well. I'm worried about Stanford and UCLA and ASU. Utah has gotten off to a good start but I need to see more before I'm a believer. I'm thinking right now it's looking like a four-bid league — and you're right, if the conference is down, that is a drain on Oregon State's RPI. But if the Beavers dominate the league, they'll be fine -- they played a strong nonconference scheduled and fared extremely well against it, so they're set up well.
Pokes Fan
12:30
After a disappointing start to the season, how does Oklahoma State work its way into the rankings?
Kendall Rogers
12:30
Pokes -- the most encouraging sign for me with OSU right now is that the pitching staff, for the most part, has been very good the past couple of weeks. That was my biggest question mark for this team coming into the season, so assuming the offense is rolling, that's a great sign moving forward. This week and next weekend will be important for OSU's chances of getting into the Top 25, but it is behind several teams for now.
IO
12:34
Georgia is 1st Nationally in HR and Top 10 in doubles in a park that plays large. Do you think people underestimated the Portal class they brought in with power hitters galore? The numbers were there if you looked at their production from their previous stops. Do you think they can sustain themselves at the top of the SEC offensively once conference play gets going?
Aaron Fitt
12:34
Well, we did rank Georgia's transfer class 13th in the country, based primarily on the bats they brought in. I think we felt pretty confident as a staff that the Bulldogs would hit plenty, and they sure have. Our question was the pitching, and so far they've pitched pretty well, but that's also an extremely soft nonconference schedule so I'll reserve judgment for now. The same goes for the offense -- there's certainly some regression coming now that the Dawgs will see better pitching than they faced against the likes of UNC Asheville, Northern Kentucky and Northern Colorado... But that said, I do think the offense will continue to be quite dangerous. Lots of dangerous older hitters in that lineup.
Stan
12:34
If you had to predict the top 5 of the PAC-12 standings at the end of the year, how would you rank it? Oregon State seems to be a clear #1, but after that it’s quick jumbled…
Kendall Rogers
12:34
Man, that is a tough question. I think I'd size up the Pac-12 like this for now:

  1. Oregon State
  2. Oregon
  3. California
  4. Arizona
  5. Stanford

But, boy, I could see the pecking order in this league changing dramatically from week to week. Wide ... Open.
Billy
12:35
Can Kendall and Aaron please debate Duke vs. A&M?!?! I will tuen in on X or IG or wherever to see that!!
Aaron Fitt
12:35
Billy, I think this might need to be a prime time event sponsored by Capital One. "The Match: Rogers vs. Fitt". And hey -- the Aggies sound awesome. But I'll go to war for this Duke club -- that's a legit Omaha team.
Ryan Burnett
12:36
DBU, Coastal, East Carolina... what mid majors team looks the most complete?
Kendall Rogers
12:36
Ryan -- Always good to hear from a former Frog pitcher. With that said, I think I'm really bullish on Dallas Baptist moving forward. I'll see DBU in person in two weekends (Fitt saw it earlier this season), and I love the fact the Patriots have a strong offensive lineup to go with some high-powered weapons on the mound. WTS -- ECU has the most high-end arm of all these teams in Trey Yesavage
Oxford Bald Eagle
12:38
Will the ever seed the NCAA tournament correctly?  1 vs 64 and so on?  I'd love to go to Stanford or UCLA then get stuck as the 2 in an SEC ballpark when we are a border line host.  The boys in Hattiesburg aren't scared but I'd love an Oral Roberts or Stanford path to the tournament.
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