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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 17
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Lovesbaseball
1:10
It’s time for real info on the Aggies. Is offense struggling due to hitting adjustments with new hitting coach? Does losing one star player to injury rattle a team this much? Is there serious locker room discontent or a new head coach having trouble getting a handle on the serious issues? What is going on?
Kendall Rogers
1:10
It's time for real, tough talk about the Aggies. A&M went from one of the more patient lineups in college baseball to just going up there hacking at times. I think it was the 7th or 8th inning yesterday against Alabama, 'Bama's pitcher threw maybe 7 pitches in the inning? It was something outrageous like that. Anyway, the hitters don't seem to have a real concise plan at the plate. Meanwhile, Texas, with the former A&M staff, is now suddenly very patient at the plate and works counts like crazy. What's the common denominator there? Two things are true: 1) The Aggies are not at full strength 2) Of the returning and healthy players who are good, they look like a shell of themselves from last season. Something will have to give with that team or they will essentially be one of the biggest disappointments in modern college baseball history.
Finebaum
1:11
The calls to move on from Nate Thompson seem to be dying down a bit this year at Arkansas. Can you pinpoint what they are doing differently with their lineup/approach compared to years past that has made them more successful at the plate this year?
Joe Healy
1:11
I don't mean this to come off as flippant, but a lot of it is honestly that they seem to have done a really good job with their most recent transfer class. Five of the top six hitters are guys who are new - Kuhio Aloy, Brent Iredale, Cam Kozeal, Logan Maxwell, Charles Davalan. That's a huge development, because if you had told me that both Ryder Helfrick and Nolan Souza would be hitting below .200 right now, I would have assumed things were going really poorly.
PIGS
1:12
Whats going on with the Hogs pitching.  Sunday was a weird game with a tiny strike zone, but that doesn't account for the inability of Root or Gaeckle to have a solid start.  Bats are currently on fire but something is gonna have to come together on the mound for us.
Joe Healy
1:12
I'm as confused as you are. Maybe we can look at Root's bad outing as a one-off because he has otherwise been really good this season, but Gabe Gaeckle hasn't been quite as good as anticipated this entire season so far. It's looking more and more like it's a really good thing that Arkansas built up that kind of pitching depth because it might need it more than we thought.
Lovesbaseball
1:14
Rice. What the heck? Cruz is let go and the boys win a few games and seem to have more energy. Did they gel with Cruz or was it just a former major leaguer who couldn’t click with the kids?
Kendall Rogers
1:14
Not everything is like the professional game. I think Cruz Jr. is a pretty good guy, but he ran that operation, per my sources, like a professional operation. You just can't do that in college baseball, and especially in modern college baseball. It does sound like Rice is leaning toward hiring a current or former head coach instead of opting for a rising assistant, but it's still very early in the search there. The Rice job has challenges, but there's enough $ around that program to make some noise on the NIL front if they can hire the right guy who can energize the base.
Andrew
1:15
Should we stick a fork in the Cajuns? Are they done? Toughest part of the schedule is behind them, but I just don’t think they did enough out of conference. Getting Chase Morgan back this week will obviously help, but he’s only one guy that contributes for one game a week.
Joe Healy
1:15
I would quite go so far as to say they need a fork stuck in them, but they're very, very quickly running out of time. They've played a very tough schedule that set them up to be an at-large team, but they just haven't won enough games against those good teams, especially now that the best series win (vs. Nebraska) doesn't look as good as it did at the time. The Sun Belt feels very top-heavy, so the Cajuns really have to avoid dropping many more SBC series from this point forward. The goal should be to get to that USM series in May with a chance for a series win to put them in the postseason conversation or better.
Ray
1:16
It's still extremely early, but do you think the Beavers independent schedule has enough juice for them to be in the national seed conversation? Right now UO, UCI, and Hawaii are looking like the only quality opponents the Beavs will face the rest of the year.
Kendall Rogers
1:16
Oregon State doesn't have near the margin for error it did in the Pac 12 -- but here's something really funny. You know who you guys need to root for until you play them? Your pals down in Eugene. Funny how that works. Right now, OSU is in the mid-20s from an RPI standpoint and still has 7-8 games against premier RPI opponents. Should be OK if it keeps winning. I was really encouraged by the level of pitching over the weekend in that weekend against GCU and SCU.
SmartMuffin
1:17
Already seeing a ton of parallels between A&M and last year's Florida team.  What are the odds they end with a similar story (sneak in to regionals on the bubble - end up in Omaha?)
Joe Healy
1:17
Honestly, I've thought about this exact same thing a lot over the last few weeks. Every year we see at least one SEC team dig a deep hole, we leave that team for dead and then they come storming back. LSU was 3-12 in SEC play last season. Florida, as you mention, was in a similar boat. Tennessee was 5-10 in SEC play in 2023. Ole Miss was famously 7-14 in the SEC in 2022. I'm not saying that A&M is going to be that team, but I'm guessing one team will do something similar and it could be A&M.
Guest
1:17
Is Oregon actually good, or have they just played a pathetic schedule?
Kendall Rogers
1:17
I think Oregon is pretty good. The Ducks have definitely had some games where the pitching has been abysmal, but overall, I like their vibe and I think that offense is extremely dangerous from top to bottom. It's a loud offensive group, and it's a group who was in a Super Regional last season. That's pretty scary if you ask me.
Lovesbaseball
1:19
Tony Vitello. Has there ever been a coach who won a National Championship and then lost ALL of his starting pitchers, his star catcher, his first, second, third basemen , his right and left field, and then turned around with a team that might be just as amazing as the last one? Tony Vitello isn’t just a great recruiter, he is glue. His coaches stay with him and his kids love him. It’s time to truly know what makes him so amazing 🤩
Joe Healy
1:19
It's been an incredible rebuilding job after losing so much after last season, that's for sure. And I've long said that it's hard for me to be too critical of some of the stuff that other people don't care for when it comes to Tony because his assistants are loyal to him and his players always go out of their way to talk about how great he is to play for, and that speaks volumes.
Timothy (WV)
1:20
I know two games were cancelled due to wind and wildfires (Prayers up), but West Virginia looked good at OSU on Sunday, and yet D1Baseball still has WVU unranked; so was WVU #26 this week, and would a series Win over Arizona this weekend in Morgantown Finally be enough to earn a ranking?
Joe Healy
1:20
I don't know if they were team 26 necessarily, but they were on the board along with two or three others. I can't guarantee anything because I'm just one voice of several who chime in, but I have to imagine a series win over Arizona would put them in decent shape to be ranked.
James
1:21
Bigger surprise to this point: Texas or Oklahoma?
Kendall Rogers
1:21
James -- Good question. I'd probably lean Oklahoma. I actually thought Texas would be really good - we had the Longhorns ranked in the Top 25 to begin the season, and the returning lineup was stout. The big key for Texas so far is that the pitching staff is making big pitches in big situations. That was a serious concern of mine coming into the season. As for OU, the pitching has been very solid, but I also feel like the offense has taken care of business when it needs to. See the ninth inning against South Carolina in the series finale for example. I definitely did not have OU as a Top 10 team at this point in the season on my bingo card in January.
Brundle
1:23
ECU or the field in the AAC?
Kendall Rogers
1:23
The field. I think ECU has a run it at some point, but I think I feel more comfortable with the field. If there's one season where the Pirates could be unseated atop this conference, it's this one.
Guest
1:24
Does Oregon State realistically need to win 45 out of their 55 games to be in the Super Regional conversation?  I just don't see the schedule helping them out RPI wise
Joe Healy
1:24
By "super regional conversation," I assume you mean to be a top-eight seed? I don't know that it needs to go 45-10, but it will have to stack up wins at a pretty high clip. While some things have not gone their way with regards to the way the schedule was laid out (such as San Diego really struggling), some other things have gone their way, like Cal Poly getting hot, Virginia seeming to turn the corner over the weekend, Oklahoma, Auburn and Baylor exceeding expectations, Hawaii playing well. OSU doesn't have a lot of margin for error, but I think the schedule is at worst a net neutral in the equation when it comes to postseason positioning. So top-eight seed? Not sure I'd go that far, but hosting is very much on the table.
Reggie
1:26
Will more SEC baseball or basketball teams make their respective NCAA tournament?
Joe Healy
1:26
Basketball almost certainly, just given that 15 of 16 making it in baseball would be pretty much impossible unless the baseball committee changes its long-held philosophy that you can't just exist in the SEC and be in the field. You actually have to win a certain percentage of your league games to be considered. Historically the minimum league record for consideration has been 13-17 (with some minor caveats), so maybe the strength of the league bumps that down to 12-18 or 11-19 to be considered, but there will still probably be two or three teams below that threshold.
Rigsby
1:27
What team has surprised you all so far?  An early Cinderella if you will
Kendall Rogers
1:27
I wouldn't call Louisville Cinderella by any means, but I liked those guys opening weekend, and they've been terrific since that point, too. I was particularly encouraged by the fact U of L shutout North Carolina in that series finale on Sunday. The bats have been very solid and I love the front-line arms for Dan McDonnell's club. This team is absolutely a potential title contender.
Justin douglas
1:29
Regarding Mississippi state. Do you think southern miss head coach Christian Ostrander is the legitament  front runner if there season continues down this path.
Kendall Rogers
1:29
Has there ever been a coach more prematurely fired than Chris Lemonis? I get it, tough weekend. But let the season play out. Remember when last season, everyone wanted Lemonis gone in early March, and MSU ended up having a pretty good year? This team has that ability, too. All there of those Texas games could've gone either way. Do I think MSU is a finished product right now? Not at all. Do I think they look like a team totally lost? Not at all. They don't look like A&M, for instance.
Brenton
1:34
Death, Taxes, and a RPI question. What was the lowest RPI national host that you guys can remember and what can a lower conference team(say UTSA, Tulane in the AAC) Do to host? Go undefeated in conference AND win conf tournament?
Joe Healy
1:34
My colleague Mark Etheridge is a walking encyclopedia of information like this, so I wish he were here to help me out on this one, but as a generalization, the teams with the worst RPIs to host have tended to be west coast teams. I seem to remember UCLA once hosting with an RPI somewhere in the range of 34. Hosting as a team east of the Mississippi and south of the Mason Dixon Line with RPIs outside the top 18 or so is exceedingly rare. If you're looking to concoct a scenario where an AAC team could host, look to what ECU has done in the past, including just last year. 43-15 after the AAC tourney, comfortably won the regular season title, lots of non-con wins against good teams in the region (UNC, UNCW, Liberty, NC State, etc.). But like it or not (and most of the time I don't), RPI is going to be the single most important factor in the discussion.
Brenton
1:35
Surprising league that could have multiple bids? I think the Southland and American could both be multi bid leagues.
Kendall Rogers
1:35
Out of those two leagues, the American has the best chance to be a multiple bid league. Right now, the Southland only has one two teams with an RPI better than 50 - UTRGV (2) and SELA (42). You have to assume that in that league, RPIs are only going down in conference play. That looks ripe to be a one-bid league.
WestCoastBestCoast
1:37
A month into the season now, who do you see making the tournament besides Oregon and UCLA in the B1G?
Joe Healy
1:37
The Big Ten is deep this season, but it's precisely because of that depth that there's a very real scenario where it only gets 2-3 teams into the field with everyone beating each other so bad that it's hard to separate teams 4-10, for example, and none of the RPIs in that range stand out. But to actually answer your question, based on performance so far, I'd go Penn State. But based on having a schedule that you could see working out in the team's favor RPI-wise, I might go Michigan, though a series loss at home to USC over the weekend isn't helping the Wolverines' cause.
Eric Simmons
1:37
Why do West Coast teams with an RPI in the 20s get to host Regionals but not teams in the South?
Kendall Rogers
1:37
Simmons -- well that only happened a couple of times. In both instances, the teams -- UCLA and Arizona -- both won the Pac-12 Conference regular  season titles. If you're going to be a Top 16 seed with an RPI in the 20s, you have to do something that greatly overrides the RPI.
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