JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 2

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 2

Aaron Fitt

1:09

Hi everybody -- greetings from 20,000 feet or whatever. Joe Healy and I are both on our way home from Dallas, so let's hope the in-flight wifi cooperates. Kendall should be along shortly as well. Let's dive in.

Eric Simmons

1:10

Why isn't USC ranked?

Kendall Rogers

1:10

Eric -- USC was probably the No. 1 or No. 2 team out of the rankings this week -- right there with Oregon, and Michigan was another team who was in the mix as well, but with USC/Oregon as the top teams. I heard very good things about UO over the weekend, particularly from a physicality standpoint. We just had one spot this week, and it's impossible to deny UTSA based on its overall resume. UTSA also passes the eyeball test. I saw the 'Runners over the weekend -- super, super impressive lineup. Andrew Detlefesen is as good of a hitter as anyone in the country. But USC with Mason Edwards, Grant Govel and Co., are 100% on our radar. Fitt heard some very intriguing things about Edwards from a scout over the weekend. Fittsy?

Aaron Fitt

1:14

Yeah, Edwards has major draft helium, and all the reports I'm hearing about USC's pitching staff in general are glowing. We'll see if they've got enough firepower in the lineup, feels like they're built like Oregon State, with elite pitching and TBD on the offense, but definitely feels like a Top 25 type team. They'll get in there sooner rather than later.

BOC

1:12

I get that it's tough to move down LSU and especially Texas, but I think it's pretty hard to argue against yesterday's UCLA/State game was between the two top teams in the country. It was great to see the Dawgs look so good against it's real first step up in competition.

Aaron Fitt

1:12

At this point, I am comfortable saying UCLA and Mississippi State are both in the very top tier -- but that doesn't mean LSU and Texas aren't also in that top tier. At the end of the year, if UCLA and Mississippi State wind up being the two very best teams, I will not be remotely surprised. But it's too early for me to say conclusively that LSU and Texas aren't right there. And certainly neither of them could be moved DOWN in the rankings, even though we would have loved to move MSU UP if there were room to do so.

Guest

1:14

What are your predictions for the SBC as we move closer and closer to conference play

Kendall Rogers

1:14

The top of the SBC is looking pretty good right now. Louisiana has been solid since that Missouri State series, I've gotten very good reports on Texas State thus far, South Alabama is better, Georgia State is better and I still think Coastal Carolina will be fine long term. I was super encouraged by the start put together by Scott Doran in the final game down here at the Bruce Bolt Classic. Then, you have Arkansas State with the Mike Silva effect, and a Southern Miss team playing an insanely good brand of baseball. Love where this league is right now.

Erik

1:17

I know this isn't really the "spirit" of the chat, but does the committee look at wins individually, or weekend series' as a whole?

Nebraska got a huge one on Friday at Auburn and then got embarrassed in the other 16 innings, but the RPI (still volatile at this point) went up over 100 points. Will that win on Friday carry any value in May?

Aaron Fitt

1:17

Couple things here: (1) don't even bother looking at the RPI right now, it's still way too early, way too volatile. (2) To answer your question, it's a blend. The committee has finally acknowledged explicitly that they do indeed consider who wins a weekend series in its entirety, but they also look at all of the metrics like RPI, which are completely agnostic about who wins a series -- every game has the same value in the RPI, regardless of whether it's a Friday or a Wednesday. And since RPI remains a key tool, each individual game carries weight in the RPI, it's baked in -- so that Friday win will matter.

1:19

Also - I don’t think the effects of losing their top 3 coaches on the pitching side from last years Omaha team is being discussed enough. (Arizona) Kevin Vance has SDSU rolling.

Kendall Rogers

1:19

That has definitely hindered the Wildcats to some extent, there's no doubt about it. But Smith Bailey continues to do well, and it's not really anyone's fault that an All-American reliever got hurt for the season. I'm extremely bullish on Kevin Vance, but I wouldn't call what SDSU is doing right now 'rolling'. They lost 3 of 4 last week, but beat UCLA and took two from Washington this weekend. Doing better? Yes. Rolling? I wouldn't say that. But I think we're going to look back at Vance as a very good hire for the Aztecs. He's a stud.

DiamondHeel

1:19

How have the returns on Erik Paulsen been? Is he turning into a bonafide high round pick?

Aaron Fitt

1:19

Oh baby, now you're speaking my language! He already was on the radar for his hit tool and control of the zone over his first two years at Stony Brook, and the power started to come in his sophomore year. But he's a big dude, and there's even more power coming now -- but he still has that very high-level feel to hit, can drive it to all parts of the field. I know some scouts who were really on him as a pick to click early, and he's only helping himself week by week, I think. I am in on him as a major riser.

WestCoastBestCoast

1:21

What does it take for Waz to earn the benefit of the doubt? He is yet to have a rebuild year at Oregon but they still sit outside of the rankings after an impressive start to the season.

Aaron Fitt

1:21

Man, they just didn't play ANYBODY the first two weeks, and nobody breaks into the Top 25 by whipping overmatched competition (see also: Virginia, another team that was right on the edge of the preseason Top 25 but has had to wait to break into the rankings because other teams have made louder statements by beating better opponents). Oregon did at least play better competition in week 3, and going 2-1 in Vegas was solid -- Ducks were definitely very rankable if we had another spot or two free, but we didn't. And UTSA's resumé is so much more impressive, that's a super regional team last year that's off to a great start against good teams. They were more deserving of the one open spot we had this week.

Billy

1:22

Minor quibble at the bottom of the standings: why is Tennessee ranked above Texas A&M? Saw both teams at Globe Life this weekend. They both went 2-1 against the same competition. Tennessee better against UCLA but worse against ASU/VT than A&M. And Tennessee has the series loss to Kent State. Is that still just preseason bias?

Kendall Rogers

1:22

Not preseason bias. I'll let Fitt weigh in on the two teams. Personally, I'd like to see the Aggies get a little healthier. I'm concerned about the fact Hacopian is in and out of the lineup, and Wesley Jordan is hit or miss with that groin injury. I think I like Tennessee's pitching more, while I like A&M's offense more. They seem pretty comparable to me, to be honest. Ask me again in a couple of weeks when the two teams being SEC play. I should be in CS for the UGA series.

Aaron Fitt

1:26

I actually think KR nailed it, I agree with him in every way there. But yeah, they both went 2-1, generally status quo will prevail in the rankings in that scenario.

Burt

1:24

After an 0-3 weekend out in Vegas, Vandy now sits at 7-5 with an RPI above 200. I know it's too early to talk about RPI, but it appears the Dores will have to make some serious hay in the SEC to get out of the hole they are in. How optimistic should I be moving forward?

Aaron Fitt

1:24

I don't really think they're in much of a hole. They played strong competition in 2 of their first 3 weekends, and eventually that will work to their benefit in SOS and RPI, as those teams they played early on get rolling (even though the Dores only went 1-5 in those two weekends -- just playing those teams on a neutral site will help them ultimately). They don't need to make any kind of serious hay in SEC, just need to win 17ish games in conference play to host, like usual, I would say. Clearly the Dores have some stuff to figure out, though.

James

1:27

Thoughts on Troy so far? Seems like some losses that could make it tough to get an at large bid without really heating up

Kendall Rogers

1:27

James -- A lot of issues offensively right now, which is mind blowing considering the foundation they have in terms of at bats. To give you an idea of how much the Trojans are scuffling, stud slugger Blake Cavill is hitting .163 with a .596 OPS and just five RBIs. That's wild to even think about it. As of right now, Troy has lost every weekend as conference play nears. They are out of the at-large mix without going scorched Earth in league play. It's too bad because there's plenty of talent there.

M Campo

1:29

The Ragin Cajuns started the year off losing 2 straight to Missouri State, but have bounced back with some impressive wins and have looked very resilient. Pitching has been surprisingly strong considering we haven’t seen Chase Morgan or Landon Victorian yet. When are those guys expected to contribute and what do you think the ceiling is for this group?

Aaron Fitt

1:29

I don't have any up-to-date intel on Morgan or Victorian, and my opinion on the Cajuns is based on a one-game look that first Sunday against Missouri State, but I'll tell you that I really did walk away with a positive impression of their athleticism in the lineup and some of their bullpen arms, as well as JR Tollett, who started that Sunday. Since then, they've strung together two quality series wins vs. Maryland and UCSD. My impression is that the Cajuns have a shot to be an at-large type team, especially as those very talented freshmen continue to grow.

Kendall Rogers

1:31

I will double check with Matt Deggs, but he told me at the end of the fall he would be shocked to see Chase return at all this year. Obviously, things can change in an instant injury wise, as we saw with Max Belyeu last season -- where it appeared he was done for the year but was not.

Guest

1:33

After Teel’s good take for ball 4 and strikes being taken away from Davis in the later innings, do you see ABS making its way into the college game?

Aaron Fitt

1:33

I don't want to get dragged too far into this quagmire, but I will tell you that I just looked at the TrackMan report from this game to double-check what we saw on TM in the moment, and indeed TrackMan had both the 2-2 pitch (which was called a ball) and the 3-2 pitch (which was called a strike) as strikes. MLB's camera-based system has a smaller zone, doesn't acknowledge pitches that nick the edge of the zone as strikes, and that's the zone you saw on the broadcast. I'm not saying either pitch SHOULD have been called either way, I'll leave that up to all of you to make up your own minds (as State fans clearly already have). I'm just saying, they were both 50/50 calls considering the two systems had split opinions, and each team got the benefit of the doubt on one of those two pitches.

But anyway, yes, I have a feeling college will eventually follow MLB's lead on this, technology permitting. It might be a league by league basis in the regular season, since some conferences have more tech than others.

West

1:33

UCLA is 6-0 vs TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Miss St. Holy Gasparino that's impressive. Big man needs to move up in the batting order right?

Kendall Rogers

1:33

I mean, you'd think. But hell, if Will Gasparino is sizzling hot and doing that type of damage where he's at, why would you move him? You'd be second guessing yourself for a long time if you moved him way up and he cooled off in a big way. Actually rather curious how Coach Savage manages this.

Aaron Fitt

1:35

Personally, I love that Gasparino has fully embraced it, telling our buddy Jacob Rudner from BA that he considers his spot the "double-cleanup" spot. He's in a really good place right now, mentally and with his approach. He told us this weekend that, "I love my new swing." He was simply a revelation for me this weekend -- was not expecting to see the kind of mature approach I saw. Sure, he hit a couple homers on fastballs, but he also went deep on a slider and a changeup, and hit a couple other offspeed pitches hard. He's becoming a multi-dimensional hitter, a much tougher out than he used to be. Super-exciting guy.

Guest

1:36

Is La tech over rated or is USM just that good?

Kendall Rogers

1:36

Was Louisiana Tech ranked anywhere? I think LT is a solid team, not a great team, and we kind of saw that over the weekend. I was thought it was interesting that Lane Burroughs basically called out his team's energy levels.

I will say this, though, USM is really good, and it's now incredibly battle tested with a series win over a good UCSB club, a great weekend in Round Rock and now that road series sweep over LT.

The thing I really like about this team is there are legitimate championship options at the backend of the bullpen, the rotation is now in a great spot with Grayden Harris pitching the way we thought he would, and the offense, especially at the top, has been incredibly clutch.

I feel like Joey Urban has a front row seat to the All-Fitt Team, FWIW.

Joe

1:37

Can we please have a best of 3 series between Mississippi State and UCLA to end the college baseball season?

Aaron Fitt

1:37

Man that would be fun. (I've gushed enough about how incredible that baseball game was yesterday, but man that was up there with the Hagen Smith vs Oregon State game at Globe Life a couple years ago among the best regular-season games I've ever covered. And on a Sunday!)

WC_Drew

1:41

Excluding UCLA, USC, and Oregon (who to my eye all look like tournament teams), how would you evaluate the rest of the Big 10?

Aaron Fitt

1:41

I think I'm still buying Michigan as a regional contender. Talking with Joe Healy this morning after the Frisco Classic, it sounds like he thinks Iowa can be in that mix too, and I tend to agree. Illinois has my attention but the jury is still out, and probably same goes for Purdue. Still believe Nebraska is gonna make a run, really like their roster -- ultimately that's still probably the team I have the most faith in outside the West Coast win of the B1G.

Daniel

1:42

Is there a world where both USC and UCLA are top 8 national seeds and the Big 10 gets 6-7 teams in the tournament. There are 11 teams in the league right now with an RPI inside the top 100 and 2 more right outside.

Aaron Fitt

1:42

I mean.... maybe? Would not have imagined I would have entertained that notion heading into the year, but really really an encouraging start to the season for the Big Ten.

Guest

1:44

Hey guys! Thanks for all the coverage? Whats the best midweek game this week?

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