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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 24
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Aaron Fitt
1:04
Hi gang -- thanks to Joe for filling in for me last week as I traveled home. Glad to be back in the saddle today, let's dive in.
Greg
1:08
How many of Florida, Texas A&M, and Virginia make the field of 64, and could any of them get back into the hosting discussion?
Aaron Fitt
1:08
This feels like the biggest question of the first six weeks of the season: are these teams all toast? I know I'm a broken record early in the season, when I try to exercise as much patience as possible -- but after six weeks, teams are starting to become who they actually are. That said, every year we see teams that look dead after six weeks go on to rise from the ashes and make it to regionals, or to Omaha, or even win it all (see: Ole Miss 2022, UVa 2015). So I am STILL not writing off any of these teams, and I think at least two of the three will still be in regionals (my level of confidence in them over the long haul is UVa, then Florida, then A&M).
JEL
1:11
Irvine Eaters looking good. Relentless offense neutralized UCSB pitching and home field advantage.
Aaron Fitt
1:11
Man what a loud weekend for Irvine. I was already high on the UCI offense, but that pitching staff has come together better than I expected. Still some things that need to come together on the mound, but that team is so well coached, and it seems like they've been able to make adjustments to put guys in the right roles to succeed. Feels like one of the most complete teams in the West, certainly.
BigTex
1:13
What a weekend of baseball in Austin. What impressed you the most about Texas this weekend in that series win over LSU? Also, really felt like we were seeing a future Friday night SEC matchup with Evans and Volantis both dealing at the same time Sunday. You agree?
Kendall Rogers
1:13
BT - You know, I kind of like the way you view the latter in this series. That's a fantastic point. I'm just so impressed with Volantis' poise and overall stuff and approach. He's like a 25 year old in an 18 year old's body. It's ultra impressive. I think the biggest thing that stood out to me was just the sheer # of fantastic at bats by Texas the final two days of the series. Schloss' Horns MADE LSU throw strikes, and that paid dividends. Obviously, Riojas was pretty special throughout the weekend. The Texas bullpen doesn't have a massive margin for error, but I really do love everything else about this squad.
95Tider
1:13
Should I be concerned that Bama's bats seemed to have cooled off, or is it a product of facing elite arms of Texas A&M and Tennessee? Also, I don't know that I have ever seen Coach so fired up... hope that fire carries over to the team this week.
Aaron Fitt
1:13
Yeah I wouldn't read too much into it -- as you point out, the Aggies (for all their problems) do have a terrific staff, and obviously Tennessee looks like the best staff in the country. Alabama still scored enough to win all three games in CS, and really fared better against UT's arms than anybody. I think the Bama offense is solid.
Roger Willco
1:16
Polls question: Over the long haul, how would you say your poll differs from other polls such as the baseball coaches poll from USA Today? Is their poll more stable from week to week, or is yours? I see that the coaches poll lists "others receiving votes," which is helpful to see who fell just below the top 25. Beyond that, what are the general differences in how the polls shake up, over the years?
Kendall Rogers
1:16
Roger -- It's interesting you ask that question. I think I might actually start doing a post each Monday detailing the teams that were just out of the mix for the Top 25. Some weeks we have 5-6 teams we consider, some weeks we only have 2-3 teams we consider. But I love the idea of transparency. I think for us, it's a massive combo of eye-ball test and resume ... and weekend series. College baseball is predicated upon weekend series, so it's natural to weight those significantly more than midweek games. This is no bash on the coaches poll, but over the years, it has evolved, in some cases, more into the SID voting for the coach.
SmartMuffin
1:16
What exactly should we make of the mid-week games, particularly the upsets?  For RPI they all count the same, but you guys don't seem to consider them as much for ranking purposes, and it sometimes feels like the coaches/teams themselves don't even take them quite as seriously as a proper weekend series...
Aaron Fitt
1:16
Yeah they just aren't as important as weekend games — but that doesn't mean they are irrelevant. They are a piece of the pie, and as you point out, the RPI treats all games the same. Plenty of teams have built their postseason resumés on the strength of midweek excellence against quality competition. But ultimately our game is about winning weekend series, and that's what we will always value most.
FittsMagic
1:18
A&M vs. Virginia: who has a better shot to turn things around?
Kendall Rogers
1:18
I lean UVA. UVA at least has won a conference game and it's really hard, even in dire straits, to bet against Brian O'Connor. He's elite as elite gets. For A&M, even with Caden Sorrell back this weekend, per Michael Earley, I need to see a drastic approach change for the Aggies.
FittsMagic
1:18
Please discuss publicly the stream for the Cal-Stanford series (& their game streams in general). We need your voice to help enact change
Aaron Fitt
1:18
I, for one, appreciate the Stanford stream for the nostalgia — makes me feel like I'm playing RBI Baseball on the old NES.
Dylan Hendricks
1:21
Is there a possibility that UVA ends up missing the tournament all together?
Kendall Rogers
1:21
Absolutely. We still have a couple of more weeks to go until the RPI gets real, but Virginia is around 140 in the RPI right now. That means the Cavaliers would really need to finish ACC play on a torrid pace to be in a great spot for an at-large. A&M might be in a slightly better spot with an RPI around 110. The Aggies are getting majorly bailed out by Cal Poly, which has been very solid since that series in College Station.
Bill
1:22
So the calls for Nate Thompson's head have cooled as the Hogs' offense continues to rake, but the anxiety on Gabe Gaeckle is on the rise.  Is it time to move him back to the pen so he can find himself and promote Jimenez to the rotation?  Honestly, I like Fisher more, but I don't like the idea of 3 lefties for the rotation.
Kendall Rogers
1:22
Credit where credit is 100% due, Nate Thompson has the Hogs dialed up from an offensive standpoint. As for Gaeckle, we were just talking as a staff last night about this -- something just seems really off with him right now. I like your idea here. He's obviously a crucial piece for Arkansas meeting its goals at the end of the season.
Scott
1:23
It has been a remarkable start to the season for the Southland Conference. Currently with 5 teams in the top 75 RPI and two others in the 75-102 range. Do y'all see the conference as a potential 2 bid league currently or just 1?
Aaron Fitt
1:23
Yeah, you're right Scott — I sure wasn't expecting the Southland to be the No. 6 RPI conference at the six-week mark. UTRGV, Southeastern Louisiana, Houston Christian and McNeese have all been a lot better than we expected, and Lamar is also in at-large range in the RPI (even though it's still too early to lean too much on RPI). Ultimately, I think one-bid is still more likely, but the chances of getting a second bid have gone way up. The most likely scenario for that to happen would be if one team dominates the regular season and has a strong RPI (UTRGV is obviously best positioned for this) but fails to win the conference tourney. If UTRGV gets pulled back to the pack in conference play, it probably winds up being a one-bid league.
PowerMajor
1:24
Take Tennessee out: would you put your money on a P4 national champ or a #PowerMajor right now?
Kendall Rogers
1:24
I think I might lean LSU or Florida State right now. I love what FSU's weekend rotation has done so far this season for the most part, and I think what happened last year in Omaha will have this team battle-tested if it can just get to Omaha. LSU's bullpen is not 'refined' just yet, but those young pups will be rocking and rolling by late May and early June -- I'm very confident in that.
Big Easy
1:25
Guys is Texas better then we thought or is Lsu not as Deep in Depth as we thought they were ?   Awesome job always fellas Thanks.
Aaron Fitt
1:25
I think some of my colleagues are less excited about the length of the LSU lineup, and perhaps have some questions about the bullpen. Personally, I don't really share those concerns -- I like the lineup depth just fine, and there's so much talent in that bullpen, I expect it to get better and better in the second half as some of those exciting young arms really come into their own. Credit Texas -- I do think the Horns are better than I gave them credit for (speaking only for myself).
Go dawgs
1:27
Hey guys. I saw someone reply to Kendall about the Georgia bats saying nick ammirati effect. I’m a huge Georgia fan and legit had no idea who this dude was. He arrives at southern miss they rake, he goes to Kentucky they rake, comes to Georgia now they rake. I’m not a subscriber so I don’t know if you guys  have talked about him a ton already. Do you think this Georgia team has a good chance to host a regional and maybe a super?? Feels like the best team we have had in decades. Thanks fellas!!!
Aaron Fitt
1:27
Yes, Nick Ammirati is indeed a star in the coaching ranks, and I know we've talked about him a lot in our staff chat, not sure how much we have discussed him publicly -- but he's a dude. They also did a great job building that roster once again -- Georgia has gone as all-in on the portal as any program, and they have nailed a lot of their evaluations, none more obvious than big Ryland Z. And I remain quite high on the pitching talent on this roster too, even though they haven't pitched great in the first six weeks -- I think that staff is going to really come together in the second half. Omaha team for me, and a bona fide national title contender.
BaseballFaninNoDak
1:28
Tennessee's pitching depth is what stands out the most to me after this past weekend. Doyle & Phillips both had shorter outings than usual, but the depth that the Vols have in the pen is insane...Snead, Franklin, Loy, Arvidson, Behnke, and now freshman Braden Krenzel...not to mention the emergence of freshman Sunday starter Tegan Kuhns and AJ Russell coming at some point. The Vols appear to be ahead of the curve at this point two weeks into SEC play from a pitching standpoint. It's going to be fascinating to see what other teams can develop a few other guys over the course of the season. If Georgia can get that consistency we saw last weekend, yikes!
Kendall Rogers
1:28
I think Tennessee is very clearly the No. 1 team in the country and the favorite right now. It is the best team I've seen in person. And as you mentioned, Doyle and Phillips are good, Kuhns continues to grow and Frank's staff can mix and match all day long out of the pen. I can't really pin-point a real weakness with Tennessee right now? I'm sure one will be exposed at some point in the SEC, but it's so far so good.
Hunter
1:30
Is it time to start talking about a 2+ bid Southland? They currently have 4 teams in the top 55 in RPI: UTRGV, McNeese, Lamar, and Southeastern.
Kendall Rogers
1:30
As of right now, it's probably a two-bid league. But I'm not sure I see that staying the case as the season progresses. Those RPIs for those mid-major leagues will decline as the season progresses, which means even a team like McNeese, which is 29 right now, will probably, at best, be around 50 or so by Selection Monday. Let's see where things stand in a month or so.
Heel
1:30
Thoughts on where UNC stands in the ACC picture? Spotty offense has put them a little behind in the standings, but three straight home ACC weekends could provide them the runway to work their way up the conference ladder.
Aaron Fitt
1:30
Yeah the Heels are gonna be just fine. Some early bumps in the road, but that's a very good roster and an elite coaching staff — I do think they're about to make a run. I don't think they're as good as they were last year considering how much they lost in the lineup, but I do still love their up-the-middle group, and I think the pitching will prove to be elite. If we're playing buy or sell, I will buy all the UNC stock I can with them currently ranked at No. 21 -- they're going to finish much higher than that. (And all that UVa stock I bought a few weeks ago -- well it has dropped in value, but I'm holding. I'm fully committed! That stock has got to rebound. Don't bet against Oak and Mac).
Jackson
1:33
Does it feel a bit like Oregon has been skimming by? Can you really take the Ducks serious yet?
Aaron Fitt
1:33
I certainly take them seriously -- lots of players back there with experience from back to back supers, and I mean c'mon, they're 19-5. It's baseball, you're not gonna go undefeated. Sure they laid an egg Saturday against Rutgers, and also last Sunday against an improved Minnesota team. Feels like that falls into the "that's baseball" category. Before that they won 11 straight, including a bunch by hugely lopsided scores. I don't think it's fair to say they're just skimming by.
Matt M
1:33
Given the schedule, RPI seems like it will be more important for Oregon State than many other teams.  Can they afford a lot of 2-1 series wins like this weekend?  Do they *need* sweeps, perhaps more than anyone in the nation?
Kendall Rogers
1:33
Oregon State is actually going to end up being in pretty solid shape. The Beavs still have series left against Irvine (33), Oregon (39) and Hawaii (37). Road series against Nebraska and Iowa also probably won't hurt them much considering they are road series. Mitch Canham's club is surprisingly in solid shape RPI wise right now.
James
1:36
State continues to lack consistency in any single area this season and sits at 1-5 in the SEC. The schedule softens a little later in the season but it feels like panic button time is creeping closer and closer.
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